The SPUZ are trading and so far 2010 looks just like 2009 - a nice calm $4 buck advance in the overnight session. Im not ready to harp on the endless bullshit rally we have been enduring for the last 9 months so Im gonna do what all of the big dawgs do Im gonna make some 2010 predictions.
In no particular order
1)The Iranian government will be overthrown either by the population or by the population with an assist by an Israeli Military strike.
2)Barack Obama will surge momentarily in popluarity as jobs start being created again but he will then plummet in popularity as bond yields zoom higher crippling home prices and crushing stocks - the plunge protection team will give up.
3)Goldman Sachs goes private and will end up screwing Warren Buffet as they will take themselves private at a price that makes his warrants worthless - he being the ultimate gamer will just smile as the joke will be on them - he has hedged all of his Goldman Warrants by shorting stock in the 160-170 range.
4)State governments will continue to suffer as demand for services will continue to rise as tax revenues stay stubbornly stagnant. States will be going to Uncle Sam hat in hand looking for cash - luckily I live in Illionois - el presidentes home state
5)Consumers will stay frugal and some less imperative retailers will dissapear. Perhaps Saks, perhaps Sears or maybe some mall favorites like American Eagle Outfitters.
6)The American Public will become increasingly tired of business as usual in Washington and congressman and senators will be under major fire as they are totally out of touch with what people really need. Political unrest will creep into the picture in America.
7)A few pro sport franchises will go bust and actually shutdown
8)Chrysler will only make the Jeep brand as no one wants a Chrysler or a Dodge.
9)Jim Cramer will be taken off of CNBC
10)Banks stocks languish again as loand demand is tepid and credit quality for the consumer continues to deteriorate - credit cards become harder and harder to get.
JB
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I like all of your predictions and agree with all but one - I don't see any job growth in 2010. We won't see the decrease we have seen in the past year, but we won't see growth either. What industry is truely growing? International? Wait for the $ to snap back eventually. Almost all of the jobs added in 2004-06 were housing related -> housing market is not coming back anytime soon and neither are the jobs.
ReplyDeleteI agree that we SHOULDNT see any job growth but turbo tax Tim said job growth will resume - usually when these guys say stuff it happens by hook or by crook if you know what I mean
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment
JB