Pinch me

The degree to which the bullish tone has gone from nuts to insane reminds me of only one other period in my trading career - 1999 Internet stock bubble. We have no selloffs we have a crew of stocks that are trading so far above their moving averages that its almost becoming immeasurable, every "analyst" who comes on TV has a higher price target than the one before and we have a FED that as usual is doing all the wrong things. I believe AAPL is almost larger in market cap now than Exxon Mobile - Steve Jobs is the Sultan. At this point I dont wish for a decline I wish for a crash of epic porportions - the kind that happens overnight and no one has a chance to get out - people have lost any and all fear of equities - equities are now like a warm blanket - need em to sleep at night...the riskier the better.
One little nugget in the news really pissed me off today - GM who at the governments urging screwed their senior bondholders, breaking all kinds of contract law precedent, is paying its workers larger bonuses - the guys who kept their jobs cuz the bondholders got screwed - how bout just sending that money to the bondholders?? I Guess the car CZAR (proper title) would not approve of that.
I stare incredulously at my screens as the market just pushes higher almost 24/6 with virtually no downside volatility. How does it all end?? Boy I wish I knew. As for me I stay long and short, the latter part ever so painfully and pray for more volatile times ahead - maybe a big middle easter power struggle - oh wait we had that, maybe a big back up in long term bond rates - oops we had that, maybe an exploding national debt - got that too.....who knows?? Maybe if the economy just creates some jobs then everything will implode......

Good luck

JB

Boy Have I been a fool

A Bear Mauled by his shorts but saved by his longs. Im lucky to be standing - even luckier to have finished 2010 up a bit over 10% net of all fees. I truly am long short - had there been no shorts in 2010 life would have been way more pleasant and stress free. So since the March 2009 low in the S&P of 666 we have rallied something like 90% which is even more than the market rallied back after the 1929 crash - pretty heady stuff. The market continues to put blinders on to any and all problems and is totally convinced that corporate profits will continue to rock and that people will have no problem paying the same multiple of earnings in a world dominated by cheap money courtesy of insane central bankers globewide. One of the most amazing displays of investor complacency is the strength of AAPL after Steve Jobs announced a relapse of his health problems.
The last time Steve Jobs took a health leave the stock was about $90 it is now $340 or so....I dont think there is a person on earth who thinks AAPL would have gotten to where it is without Mr. Jobs.....but now for some reason they have no fear, obviously AAPL is on solid ground and is the envy of corporations the world over but Jobs makes the company, he is the man on stage with the black turtle neck and jeans...when I saw he was taking a leave I figured the stock would drop $50 - its barely down $10 from the highs - people have no fear. If any lesson has been learned since Bernanke and Paulson asked for their Bazooka its that longs are in the driver seat and shorts are lucky to survive. I have no short in AAPL but I sure think in the long term the company is weaker without Steve Jobs - the man is a visionary.
There were some punk earnings tonight after the close from American Express, Texas Instruments and VMware yet as usual the S&Ps trade firm overnight. I figuer by morning they will be down a bit. The financial crisis is not over by anymeans its just a normal part of life now. The obvious 800 lb gorilla is the state of the states and cities. Will we see a rash of muni bankruptcies??? I think we will, how they impact society remains to be seen...Stay tuned 2011 should be an interesting year - the street is very bullish so the surprises will be to the downside - I for one am ready.

JB

Full on retard

We are there folks - we are now in a market dominated by the likes of guys to your right.
Good companies, bad companies they are rallying nearly 24 hours a day - the SPUZ pretty much rally all day and then as soon as the afterhours session open they keep going - we are up another 3 handles now b/c the republicans are winning the elections?? Is this news?? Todays 10 point rally in the S&P did not include the likes of GE, BAC, JPM, CLX - you know why? Cuz they dont sell apps, or ipads, or any other ishit that this insane country is obsessed with - its just stupid already. People would sooner lose their homes then lose their wifi so they can watch youtube clips on their ipads that they are paying 38% per anum in interest for. We as a country have lost it - we should just name Steve Jobs King - Jim Cramer court jester and Ben Bernanke official money printer - lets lose the title fed chariman. I am a man who has fought the feds liquidity tide and has lost the short bets but luckily won more on the long side - I want a downmove of significance - people have ZERO fear of the downside again - stock only go up - the SPUZ are trading 23 points higher than they were at 2:30 pm yesterday - we have rallied 15% since aug 31st - tomorrow the fed is going to announce that they are going to buy another trillion dollars in long term bonds - cuz the first gazillion dollars worked so well - all it has done is make a stock market rally to insane heights with no public participation.
Im plum out of ideas. I guess just buy AAPL and a gun.

JB

4 letter and other forgotten words.....

Risk, Sell, Over Done, Nuts, Help, Ouch........these are words that have been erased by the people who buy this market 24/7 - they are living in an alternate universe where Ben Bernanke paves the world with dollars and pushes the value of their portfolios up up an away. Apparently the people who are buying the market dont care that commodity prices are surging and making EVERYTHING (except real estate) more expensive...You cant even call this a market anymore there is no selling its just a constant wave of buy orders chasing whatever tiny amounts of liquidity that are out there...The biggest winner in this entire exercise is the company that provides ink to the US Mint - their sales must be going thru the roof -
Today is no different than any other day since Sep 1st - Bond prices up, Stocks up, Oil up, Gold up, Dollar DOWN!!!!! I wonder if there is a magic number where the dollars plumet becomes something for concern.....I would imagine not - I for one think it will be rather cool to go into 7-11 and buy a slurpee for $1000 dollars in the not to distant future. They will have to change the lyrics to the popular song I want be a billionaire to Zillionare since everyone will have a billion dollars in their wallets. Anyways the last few days have hurt pretty bad - we had been surviving rather well considering how wrong I have been and will no doubt continue to be on the market.....but the last days - Ouch!!!!!

JB

Somehow this Bear is still standing

I know I have been quiet, between eating huge servings crow, running my fund and being a Dad - time has been at a premium. Since I last wrote the market has just surged nonstop - all news is bought and in fact news is not even a consideration anymore - its just how much?? how much more is the fed gonna buy? 500 billion - 1 trillion? The street is 100% obsessed with quantitative easing which is the fed buying securities from dealers which then infuses the sellers with cash which I guess they presumably plw into equities which will make the market rally which will create jobs??? I think thats the thinking - the Feds first round of quantitative easing was about 800 billion and as far as creating jobs it was a zeeeeeeeeero - it did however lead to a MAJOR rally in stocks, commodities and a trouncing of the dollar. Have you seen the price of Corn lately?? http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/W Thats just great for those of us that like to eat cereal and just about ANYTHING. Oil is pushing $85 bucks a barrel again and GOLD is in the $1300s - ooops I almost forgot to mention the 10 yr treasury which is yielding around 2.5%....and stocks seems to levitate 24/7. The market is following Apple Computers massive surge tick for tick - as Apple goes so goes the US. AAPL now account for almost 21% of the Nasdaq 100 stock index - is that a good thing? Im still bearish as I dont learn to quickly. Luckily I run a long short portfolio - my longs have done well - my shorts have hurt. The net is up 8% YTD. Not bad for a guy who is so bearish. There are still some major hurdles out there namely what the hell is the government gonna do with Fannie and Freddie and there amazing capital requirements, and remember interest rates are still insanely low - if housing is not recovering now when?? My opinion is like in about 20 years. Anyways Im still alive and kicking.

JB

Sucked in?

Are we all sucked in yet? Are we bubbling over with enthusiasm for equities? Yes - why? Cuz they are going up - no other reason. Momentum is infectious. The Dow is up 13 of the last 15 days....in the same time Gold has set a new high and short term bond rates have hit all time lows. The fed today said things SUCK and interest rates as they set them will remain at insanely low levels for eternity - its not like its helping - they have been like this for what 2 years now? I guess it will work next quarter. America is being fueled by MASSIVE FEDERAL AND STATE DEFICITS AND SALES OF IPHONES AND DROIDS. After the close another 3 or 4 companies tapped the equity markets with large secondary offerings after about 5 yesterday. So as Wall St. would have you believe buy buy buy as companies sell sell sell. And then there is that silliness about how great MSFT is b/c it raised its dividend a whopping 3 cents per quarter - gee what are you gonna do with all of that cash? .12 cents - on 1k shares which would be a massive holding for most Americans thats $120 a year before taxes - buy buy buy. The technical indicators are screaming breakout but the world and America is still fundamentally in breakdown - I dont give a ratsass what these economic releases are saying houses are still sitting forever in my neighborhood, jobs are scarce and people not Jim Cramer and Bob Dole (from blackrock) have ZERO confidence in the "American dream" right now. So they will extol the value of buying equities and tell you how the bears are just fools but remember they are part of the machine - the grease - maybe if the market had not rallied 9% in September todays latest Fed scam should have been bought but the market rallied massively into another day where Bernanke declared that no matter what he will try and inflate out of this debacle. Gold does not buy it, bonds dont buy it , non wealthy non wall streeters dont believe it. The Aholes who are managing your money are the ones chasing Amazon at 55 times earnings and Opentable at 17 times sales - they are the ones who are buying the market up 9% this month while they were shitting in there pants last month. Almost everyone just chases beta now thats it- I for one am waiting for truth in the marketplace for prices that reflect where people would buy businesses and not the handful that have been bought out lately cuz interest rates leave companies feeling that 5% ROE deals are attractive.

A burned bear

JB

Can you feel it??

The rally was contained at the 1120 level (for now)....Interestingly Goldman is coming out with very negative macro research on the US and global economy - which normally would make me thing that they are long and are trying to trap sellers but all of the other houses are still embracing the stupidity of "no double dip" so maybe GS is telling the truth?? George Costanza's double dipping will prove to be less obvious than this economy's coming double dip.
Gold is telling you that fiat currency's are done. Tbonds are for now the home for safety....
The lack of intraday volatility is just nuts - the risk on and off moves are hatched overnight with either 1% up or down and all day the rebate collectors just run their algorithms robbing the market of true trades. I know some smart guys who are bullish here but Im not sure why......I think the bald guy on CNBC is becoming just laughable as is that entire network...really how do you make sense of a market in the post apocalypse where computers trade all day to collect liquidity rebates - if you don't think its big money consider an article in Forbes this month that describes an algo traders 300 Million dollar investment building his own line from Chicago to NYC so that he could be 3 milliseconds faster than other traders...http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0927/outfront-netscape-jim-barksdale-daniel-spivey-wall-street-speed-
war.html
And here I am actually trying to say ok Id like to be long WYNN and short Las Vegas Sands....idiot, fool, imbecile.
Anyways I think the super highbeat heroes, NFLX,CRM,PCLN, are due for a nice little smackdown - we shall see - we shall see.

JB