Monday, February 14, 2011

Pinch me

The degree to which the bullish tone has gone from nuts to insane reminds me of only one other period in my trading career - 1999 Internet stock bubble. We have no selloffs we have a crew of stocks that are trading so far above their moving averages that its almost becoming immeasurable, every "analyst" who comes on TV has a higher price target than the one before and we have a FED that as usual is doing all the wrong things. I believe AAPL is almost larger in market cap now than Exxon Mobile - Steve Jobs is the Sultan. At this point I dont wish for a decline I wish for a crash of epic porportions - the kind that happens overnight and no one has a chance to get out - people have lost any and all fear of equities - equities are now like a warm blanket - need em to sleep at night...the riskier the better.
One little nugget in the news really pissed me off today - GM who at the governments urging screwed their senior bondholders, breaking all kinds of contract law precedent, is paying its workers larger bonuses - the guys who kept their jobs cuz the bondholders got screwed - how bout just sending that money to the bondholders?? I Guess the car CZAR (proper title) would not approve of that.
I stare incredulously at my screens as the market just pushes higher almost 24/6 with virtually no downside volatility. How does it all end?? Boy I wish I knew. As for me I stay long and short, the latter part ever so painfully and pray for more volatile times ahead - maybe a big middle easter power struggle - oh wait we had that, maybe a big back up in long term bond rates - oops we had that, maybe an exploding national debt - got that too.....who knows?? Maybe if the economy just creates some jobs then everything will implode......

Good luck

JB

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