Roll a 7

Imagine you were playing craps and 7s came up 90% of the time - you would bet on 7 and only 7 - who cares about the other 10% of the time?
That is basically the bet the bulls have been making everyday for the last 10 months - its the bet that has fueled a 71% rally in the S&P since march 9th. Jim Cramer tonight muses that he should have been buying today as stocks were on sale - he has been a vocal bull for months OK so he put a super strong buy on GOOG at $625 and now its $575 - it can happen - ok he couldnt say enough about how great AVB was at $85 a share and now its $79 - minor details - overall he has been dead on - he should have just been buying S&Ps and forget the individual stocks. He is playing in a crap game betting on 7s when 7s come up 90% of the time. Thats how its been but now its time to channel your inner Gretzky and figure out not where the puck is but where its gonna be...
The current quarterly earnings are very much like looking at the stats on the back of a Mark Mcgwire or Sammy Sosa baseball card circa 1998 - hormonally altered - HGH in their case - massive stimulus and insanely low rates in stocks case.
Sosas homreun production went from 66 in 1998 to a more normalized 35 a few years later - remove the stimulus and whats left? Can the economy fire nice growth on its own or is it addicted to stimulus? Are Bernanke and Obama going to end up testifying in from of congress a few years from now fessing up about stimulus kind of like all of those baseball players?? If you are long you better hope not.
Earnings are coming in well and its hard to get your head around a decline but its possible - no one is looking for it - everyone is bullish - and we have not had a meaningful correction in months....Go to where the puck is gonna be - and when you get there let me know if Im on the right path.

JB

JB