Full on retard

We are there folks - we are now in a market dominated by the likes of guys to your right.
Good companies, bad companies they are rallying nearly 24 hours a day - the SPUZ pretty much rally all day and then as soon as the afterhours session open they keep going - we are up another 3 handles now b/c the republicans are winning the elections?? Is this news?? Todays 10 point rally in the S&P did not include the likes of GE, BAC, JPM, CLX - you know why? Cuz they dont sell apps, or ipads, or any other ishit that this insane country is obsessed with - its just stupid already. People would sooner lose their homes then lose their wifi so they can watch youtube clips on their ipads that they are paying 38% per anum in interest for. We as a country have lost it - we should just name Steve Jobs King - Jim Cramer court jester and Ben Bernanke official money printer - lets lose the title fed chariman. I am a man who has fought the feds liquidity tide and has lost the short bets but luckily won more on the long side - I want a downmove of significance - people have ZERO fear of the downside again - stock only go up - the SPUZ are trading 23 points higher than they were at 2:30 pm yesterday - we have rallied 15% since aug 31st - tomorrow the fed is going to announce that they are going to buy another trillion dollars in long term bonds - cuz the first gazillion dollars worked so well - all it has done is make a stock market rally to insane heights with no public participation.
Im plum out of ideas. I guess just buy AAPL and a gun.

JB

4 letter and other forgotten words.....

Risk, Sell, Over Done, Nuts, Help, Ouch........these are words that have been erased by the people who buy this market 24/7 - they are living in an alternate universe where Ben Bernanke paves the world with dollars and pushes the value of their portfolios up up an away. Apparently the people who are buying the market dont care that commodity prices are surging and making EVERYTHING (except real estate) more expensive...You cant even call this a market anymore there is no selling its just a constant wave of buy orders chasing whatever tiny amounts of liquidity that are out there...The biggest winner in this entire exercise is the company that provides ink to the US Mint - their sales must be going thru the roof -
Today is no different than any other day since Sep 1st - Bond prices up, Stocks up, Oil up, Gold up, Dollar DOWN!!!!! I wonder if there is a magic number where the dollars plumet becomes something for concern.....I would imagine not - I for one think it will be rather cool to go into 7-11 and buy a slurpee for $1000 dollars in the not to distant future. They will have to change the lyrics to the popular song I want be a billionaire to Zillionare since everyone will have a billion dollars in their wallets. Anyways the last few days have hurt pretty bad - we had been surviving rather well considering how wrong I have been and will no doubt continue to be on the market.....but the last days - Ouch!!!!!

JB

Somehow this Bear is still standing

I know I have been quiet, between eating huge servings crow, running my fund and being a Dad - time has been at a premium. Since I last wrote the market has just surged nonstop - all news is bought and in fact news is not even a consideration anymore - its just how much?? how much more is the fed gonna buy? 500 billion - 1 trillion? The street is 100% obsessed with quantitative easing which is the fed buying securities from dealers which then infuses the sellers with cash which I guess they presumably plw into equities which will make the market rally which will create jobs??? I think thats the thinking - the Feds first round of quantitative easing was about 800 billion and as far as creating jobs it was a zeeeeeeeeero - it did however lead to a MAJOR rally in stocks, commodities and a trouncing of the dollar. Have you seen the price of Corn lately?? http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/W Thats just great for those of us that like to eat cereal and just about ANYTHING. Oil is pushing $85 bucks a barrel again and GOLD is in the $1300s - ooops I almost forgot to mention the 10 yr treasury which is yielding around 2.5%....and stocks seems to levitate 24/7. The market is following Apple Computers massive surge tick for tick - as Apple goes so goes the US. AAPL now account for almost 21% of the Nasdaq 100 stock index - is that a good thing? Im still bearish as I dont learn to quickly. Luckily I run a long short portfolio - my longs have done well - my shorts have hurt. The net is up 8% YTD. Not bad for a guy who is so bearish. There are still some major hurdles out there namely what the hell is the government gonna do with Fannie and Freddie and there amazing capital requirements, and remember interest rates are still insanely low - if housing is not recovering now when?? My opinion is like in about 20 years. Anyways Im still alive and kicking.

JB

Sucked in?

Are we all sucked in yet? Are we bubbling over with enthusiasm for equities? Yes - why? Cuz they are going up - no other reason. Momentum is infectious. The Dow is up 13 of the last 15 days....in the same time Gold has set a new high and short term bond rates have hit all time lows. The fed today said things SUCK and interest rates as they set them will remain at insanely low levels for eternity - its not like its helping - they have been like this for what 2 years now? I guess it will work next quarter. America is being fueled by MASSIVE FEDERAL AND STATE DEFICITS AND SALES OF IPHONES AND DROIDS. After the close another 3 or 4 companies tapped the equity markets with large secondary offerings after about 5 yesterday. So as Wall St. would have you believe buy buy buy as companies sell sell sell. And then there is that silliness about how great MSFT is b/c it raised its dividend a whopping 3 cents per quarter - gee what are you gonna do with all of that cash? .12 cents - on 1k shares which would be a massive holding for most Americans thats $120 a year before taxes - buy buy buy. The technical indicators are screaming breakout but the world and America is still fundamentally in breakdown - I dont give a ratsass what these economic releases are saying houses are still sitting forever in my neighborhood, jobs are scarce and people not Jim Cramer and Bob Dole (from blackrock) have ZERO confidence in the "American dream" right now. So they will extol the value of buying equities and tell you how the bears are just fools but remember they are part of the machine - the grease - maybe if the market had not rallied 9% in September todays latest Fed scam should have been bought but the market rallied massively into another day where Bernanke declared that no matter what he will try and inflate out of this debacle. Gold does not buy it, bonds dont buy it , non wealthy non wall streeters dont believe it. The Aholes who are managing your money are the ones chasing Amazon at 55 times earnings and Opentable at 17 times sales - they are the ones who are buying the market up 9% this month while they were shitting in there pants last month. Almost everyone just chases beta now thats it- I for one am waiting for truth in the marketplace for prices that reflect where people would buy businesses and not the handful that have been bought out lately cuz interest rates leave companies feeling that 5% ROE deals are attractive.

A burned bear

JB

Can you feel it??

The rally was contained at the 1120 level (for now)....Interestingly Goldman is coming out with very negative macro research on the US and global economy - which normally would make me thing that they are long and are trying to trap sellers but all of the other houses are still embracing the stupidity of "no double dip" so maybe GS is telling the truth?? George Costanza's double dipping will prove to be less obvious than this economy's coming double dip.
Gold is telling you that fiat currency's are done. Tbonds are for now the home for safety....
The lack of intraday volatility is just nuts - the risk on and off moves are hatched overnight with either 1% up or down and all day the rebate collectors just run their algorithms robbing the market of true trades. I know some smart guys who are bullish here but Im not sure why......I think the bald guy on CNBC is becoming just laughable as is that entire network...really how do you make sense of a market in the post apocalypse where computers trade all day to collect liquidity rebates - if you don't think its big money consider an article in Forbes this month that describes an algo traders 300 Million dollar investment building his own line from Chicago to NYC so that he could be 3 milliseconds faster than other traders...http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0927/outfront-netscape-jim-barksdale-daniel-spivey-wall-street-speed-
war.html
And here I am actually trying to say ok Id like to be long WYNN and short Las Vegas Sands....idiot, fool, imbecile.
Anyways I think the super highbeat heroes, NFLX,CRM,PCLN, are due for a nice little smackdown - we shall see - we shall see.

JB

8/9

Eight out of 9 days up in September - no chance Obama has the market "forces" bidding stocks up is there?? Buffet (ultimate political and wall st. insider) is out today saying there is no chance of double dip...really what is a guy who writes articles entitled "Buy America" gonna say??
We are back to 1999 stock strategies - OPENtable - you make restaurant reservations from the internet or your iphone is trading at 100 times forward earnings and 18 times sales - I suppose the braindead Citigroup analyst who upgraded it today has a paycheck and an IPHONE so perhaps he uses OPENtable but regardless it was up 5 or 6 bucks today in algospasm trading rhythms. The 16% of the job seeking population that is unemployed must also be using OPENtable on a regular basis....Priceline.com, NETFLIX, GOOGLE, Salesforce.com were all doing there thing trading up up up and away....today MSFT even got into the act with a 5% move based on a rumor that they might issue debt to buyback stock or pay increased dividends....You can thank the fed for that, with Treasuries at 2.75% MSFT can borrow at like 3.5% so hey thanks Ben Bernanke - u are the stuff that stupid stock manipulations are made of.
Anyways the permabulls are just as bullish now as they were seven percent ago at the start of September as if we are in some normal environment and not some post financial apocalyptic world - as if we are not in a world where insane worldwide government borrowing is fueling the only growth and spending there is. Perfect example of government stupidity on a local level - Lincolnwood Il - we have perfectly good streetlights on one of our main streets but yet for some reason we now have brand new streetlights that look a bit nicer - so some Union electricians got paid way to much to work for 8 hours and take 2 hour breaks where they smoked cigarettes, ate fast food and pushed up insurance costs - so thanks for that. How the bulls have convinced themselves that everything is going to be OK is most interesting to me. I fear that the conviction that there will be no double dip will make the escape window that much smaller - tread carefully.

JB

A load of crap

Thats what this market is. We rally the entire way back friday after an atrocious job numbers - on some whimsical hope that the fed can engineer magic tomorrow and then today after faced with "real" selling in a bellweather like Hewlett Packard the market still manages to close on the highs of the day after mind numbing trade all day. We have now rallied about 10-11% from the July lows and the market is a tame kitten. But why? No good reason. If we are pinning our hopes on Bernanke and the Fed to save us let us remember who put us in the crisis to begin with - THE FED. So people look at their charts and they say hmm - mkt looks good etc....but the market is so broken. Stocks trade at levels that alogrithms put them at - gaming the system in order to get rebates - the tape very simply is a nontruth. The same stocks all day, trade incessantly - why oh why does Las Vegas Sands trade every second of every day?? Not because of some major bull market in Vegas I can tell you that but because of the freakin rebates - I think rebates for liquidity should be banished - that is not a legitimate reason to make a trade.
There is no investment intent....none. Anyways the fundamentals are crappy but the tape is firm - do what you will.

JB

Snort Snort or grrrr grrrr

The S&P is higher 6 out of the last 7 days - pretty good success numbers for the Bulls. Today was a mind numbing session of random bullish action - commodity stocks were higher as were small caps, tech was mixed bag, banks were strong. Ford introduced its new Explorer which I gotta say looked pretty damn nice to these eyes - assuming it drives well and fit and finish are good that should be another success for Ford.
Im still very much a skeptic of the "recovery" - corporate profits are coming in strong but whats driving them? Emaciated cost structures and stimulus sugar still in the system. Anyway - thats my opinion. It seems like when you see Geithners name in the news a lot you see a strong mkt....He's been in the news talking about the need to let the Bush Tax cuts expire....you see they need more revenue to pay for all of the SPUZ he has been buying - simple.
Im pretty beared up again - think 1110 holds as resistance and market returns back to 1050-1065 range in pretty short order....but hey you guys know Ive been wrong before.

JB

"Investing" 2010 style

8 days ago we were hearing about a big slowdown coming, Europe dissolving, State and municipal bankruptcies etc, etc, etc - now we have had a 7 day rally in the S&P which has tacked on almost 10% in a literal straight line. This is what fund "managers" are getting paid for?? Please - there is no liquidity left in this market - the algo psychos have taken the lifeblood out of the market and NO HUMAN is left to trade - or at least very few. I have been quiet lately as the task of managing a portfolio and running a business and being a Dad has left me with not so much free time. But the action of the past days is so ridiculous that I had to comment. Bear market rallys are vicious - take no prisoners affairs- that is exactly what this has been and may continue to be - honestly how many times do you remember a near 10% move in 7 trading days?? Jim Cramer is very bullish again so we must be getting ready to drop - CNBC continues to pump the market and the "recovery". Recovery??? The jobless ranks are bulging, the period of unemployment is lengthening and corporate America continues to deliver good numbers b/c they are not hiring people. Its an odd moment - something has to give at somepoint - either they start hiring and margins get squeezed or end demand just peters out as high levels of unemployment cannot lead to a buoyant environment. PEs seem to be cheapening up - Id argue that PEs will go sub 8 times for many companies in the not so distant future - Japan the sequel.
I remain very suspect of the US economy and very certain of majorly tuff times in our future. I wish I didnt feel that way but.....so it goes.
Wipeout on TV tonight - good stuff!!!

JB

Now we are getting somewhere

How bout this little sea change we have had?? Maybe I wasnt crazy afterall? Maybe stocks were not supposed to rally 80% unchecked? Maybe insane government interventions in the market is backfiring? Debts matter etc etc....
Everything you will read out there will be asking, "when do we buy the market?" the answer is when they stop asking that question. You might get small tradeable rallies but my opinion is we definitely have to go lower than 900 on the S&P. I would watch stocks like AAPL which may come under EXTREME pressure as funds need to raise cash, what better than a $235 aircraft carrier to do that - no matter how may freaking IPADs they sell. The hilarity of all this is that the US is absolutely no better than Greece or Spain or any of these over leveraged countries. The world of pain that is coming due to 30 years of insane policies and spending by governments will hopefully refresh and restore our governments and fill the halls with good smart people not just whores looking to get reelected. I remain resolutely bearish on the future of the US and thereby its equities - our debts are out of control and the piper needs to be paid. But if capitalism is given a CHANCE to work, what gets torn down will get rebuilt by new people who can do it better and smarter. Trade carefully and be patient remember how long this market rallied....

JB

Europe borrowing from Bernankes playbook

Europe wants to destroy the Euro Bernanke style....print print print. The global race to the bottom for currency has begun as sovereign entities are insolvent and massive printing of dollars and euros is the only way out. We saw last week what kind of havoc a small country like Greece could cause just wait till its Spain or for that matter California. For once last week my bearish convictions were proven to not just be fantastical ideas. We saw a tremendous panic last thursday but in all reality after the rally the market has had all year, grinding higher, mauling bears it was due and Im quite sure we will test the 200 day MA around 1090 and soon enough trade below it.
I have been amazingly busy the last few weeks and thus have not been able to blog - last week was the stuff dreams are made of for me. My fund is doing quite well and Im hopeful we are getting back to more normal volatility.

More soon

JB

The craziness of the 2010 "market"

There was once such a thing as profit taking, a concept of selling while the getting was good, markets being overbought, plummeting option prices being a warning sign - in this "market" nothing applies - we only rally, we buy all news (good, bad, or indifferent), anything of worry is cast aside, its just crazy.
Tonight we hear from Intel which posted "blowout numbers" (CNBC's term) , never matter that the market rallied almost all day into the number we are rallying afterwards as well...If you dont believe that there are non freemarket hands guiding this market you are crazy. In a country with 9.7% unemployment, and even greater underemployment all we have is a permabid rigged stock market...its absurd.
The secondary offerings and IPOs continue at a record clip - we have been participating in lots of em and passing on quite a few as well, luckily we passed on Metals USA a Goldman led IPO of a KKR company - it priced at $21 and close its first day of trading at $19.3 - ouch. When the KKRs and Blackstones are selling you better watch out.
Anyways - tonight the SPUZ are rallying as they will all night and all day forever until kingdom come.

JB

Greece is the word....

Greece is getting 40 billion Euros from its fellow Eurobloc members...the baby has finally been given its bottle...Market is take a guess??? Up in the overnight session.
I was away for about 10 days out in the capital of foreclosures Lake Las Vegas...enjoyed lots of R&R with the family....It was good to be away from the flicks and ticks (as Toddo calls em) but its also good to be back.
This week Im thinking (hoping) should be pretty interesting, you get the non news bailout of Greece, and 1st quarter earnings start streaming in, oh and we'll probably here about numerous municipalities that are buckling...but dont worry your pretty little heads over those silly issues just keep buying downticks (if you can find any).
I bought some upside calls in AIG the other day - thinking is there is an enormous short position left in this POS and they should be able to post a big earnings number....I mean if ABK can put up a good number anyone can..and if AIG does the squeeze should be on.
Dont get me wrong, on a fundamental level Im still an uber bear and believe the problems and issues our economy face are almost insurmountable but.....

JB

The manipulation continues

Some might say the market had a scary close yesterday erasing most of these sessions gains late in the day...might make you a little nervous to come in long today right? Never fear with team Obama running (gunning) the markets. At around 7 PM central time last night the White House announced that they are going to announce some housing assistance program today, which will for sure mean more money for the morons who over leveraged and you and me have to keep making our regular payments, so for some reason the market likes this and the futures just start rallying. Of course lets remember where the money for Obamas latest bailout is going to come from...thin air!!! A day does not go by where he does not announce more spending we cant afford....Why the market rallys on this you ask? You know why...I suspect this mornings gains will evaporate rather quickly as people are beginning to understand the true danger of the fiscal situation we are in and that this administration seems hellbent on putting us in a continually worse situation.
So for all you people out there who reached a little to far, bought a little to much house - congrats - your life is about to get a little easier, mine?? the same.

JB

Im short the wrong market...

Anybody see the carnage in US Govt bonds today?? The stock market is to stupid to see the ramifications of this insane healthcare reform bill but the bond market saw it and exit left was the move. Treasuries got smoked for 2 full points today - all we do is issue new debt week in week out - and tax revenue is going down so people got nervous about a fiscal crisis and sold - the stock "market" took it quite well posting a 50 point decline for the Dow, what us worry. Tonight the SPUZ are getting an early jump on tomorrow and are rallying by a point or so....why the natural inclination is to buy em when the bond market is under serious stress Il never know. I think at this point the stock "market" has become an experiment for the fed and Goldman to see just how far they can push it, how many traders they can put out of business, how many people they can suck in - did anybody see todays housing numbers?? They were HORRID..total garbage and yet housing stocks rallied....now that might be understandable 70% ago in the market but up here?? Oh well...
JPM issues a new 7% preferred tonight - the offering sold out in 5 minutes...I bought some of it.

JB

Really?? Really??

We are just going to go up everyday? everyday? Nobody finds this in the least bit strange that after 75% gains we still just march forward all day??
Oh well - im a moron - thank G-D for MPG and MPGpA as longs which I talked about here months and moths ago they made power moves today after the company conference call this AM - the move in this name today bailed me out on some shorts - why I still have any shorts on is a damn good question....
Anyways more secondary offerings tonight, a bunch of converts a few billion - they will be digested with not even a belch is my thinking....make no mistake the FED is in control and are sponsoring massive risk taking once again. Have fun and make sure you have a seat when the music ends...

JB

Surprise Surprise

An upday to greet the passing of healthcare reform...the SPUZ traded down all night and all morning but the persistent buying that we have become used to started doing its thing at around 845 AM and simply never stopped. Obamacare is a winner who cares about taxes, deficits, who cares about anything - SPUZ are on cruise control to the moon.
Blah Blah Blah more rhetoric between China and Google today - this I promise you is a significant issue - but pay no heed just keep buying the market.
75% off the lows in a rally that has been sponsored by massive stimulus and massive job cuts...and the pundits are as bullish as ever - oh well Im a fool.
Oh by the way like 6 secondary offerings tonight and an IPO - gobble gobble gobble.
Bernanke might be able to blow this bubble even bigger than Greenspan blew his - the difference between the two is that Bernanke cant even cut rates if he gets in trouble - he might never raise em but he sure cant lower em.

JB

Has there even been a worse market

We either grind higher or do absolutely nothing, nada, zilch. This morning is an extra special zilch b/c its expiration - Goldman has to pin their SPX strike - so they just make the S&P futures market stay very calm with a slight upside bias so as to keep all of their subjects calm - heaven forbid someone actually come in on a Friday and want to ring the register...Today you have a significantly stronger dollar and the SPUZ are still slightly higher...good stuff good stuff.
Ok you dont need any more of my rantings...
Very active secondary calendar last night deals were done in

HRP 7.25 pricing
TSL 20.25 pricing
SB 7.0 pricing
THRX 11.5 pricing
HT dunno yet

Keep an eye on these to see how well they perform.


JB

Jobless Claims

457k more people filed initial jobless claims this week.....boy does that go hand in hand with a stock market that is not ALLOWED to trade lower for one minute of one day...Obama, Geithner and Bernanke are perpetrating one of the biggest scams of all time - inflating this market 24/6.
Have a wonderful fraud of a day.

JB

Groundhog day, again

So today would be day number 15 of the current S&P rally.
Stock buyers see absolutely nothing but rosy scenarios,http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-16/christie-seeks-to-suspend-n-j-tax-rebate-skip-pension-payment.html - they didnt see that story or countless others - but me warning you (is anybody out there?) about these issues is silly at this point - I have been dead wrong about this market since I started this blog. The fed as expected did NOTHING yesterday - so in the immortal words of Wayne and Garth "Party on"

JB

13 days in a row for the SPY

Higher for 13 days in a row - today for almost the whole day looked like a down day but in the last two hours the markets pushed higher to close the S&P up yet again. Today bigcap tech was absent from the rally - I perceive an incredible lack of liquidity in the markets - has anyone else noticed that the S&P mini contract is now 50 cents wide occasionally? Whats up with that? Look at the moves in BIDU and GOOG today - so since this talk about GOOG leaving China BIDU has rallied from about $390 to $580 today - would you say its starting to be cooked into the cake?? But yet today it was up another $28 dollars on a WSJ story that GOOG is 99.9% leaving the Chinese market....havent the algos ever heard of selling the news?? I guess not. Tuff to make sense of it all - real tuff......Obamas war on shortsellers I would say has been an amazing success - vols have been crushed, puts have not been in the money in months...stocks are kicking everythings ass. I guess the old line of "its stuff to fight city hall" was made for the past 9 months of government sponsored jigginess in the market. Tomorrow the fed will say nothing as usual - as they continue to run their hedgefund and are rather enjoying the zero% fed funds rate - I would love to be wrong - I would love for the fed to say we are going to tighten - love it - Bernanke is to stupid or maybe he knows just how shitty the economy really is so he knows inflation is nearly impossible as there is no end demand unless of course you manufacture IPODs, IPADS or IMACS. Anyways in the immortal words of Art Cashin "stay very nimble"

JB

Enough of this shit allready

Screw the fed, screw them - how long are they going to keep this zero interest rates going - its just stupid allready - the equity markets continue to zoom with literally no downticks - we opened ever so slightly lower this morning traded there till about 2 pm when Bernanke and Geithner took another run at the futures pushing them to new highs.
This market has made me feel like a total fool - TOTAL. The wonder of it all is that Im having a profitable month - i have a few good arbs going and some PIPE deals have worked but my short positions have been disastrous. When the Russell 2k is up 20/22 days being short anything is pretty pretty tuff. Watching this tape grind inexorably higher is no fun - none at all.

JB

This is beyond crazy

The Russell 2k is now up 19 out of the last 21 days - almost as good as Goldman - almost - they dont have any losing days. The SPUZ went negative for about 45 seconds this afternoon but cooler heads prevailed and stocks immediately recovered and ended up AGAIN. The beta masters, AAPL and BIDU were up to there usual tricks leaping higher and higher - boy its hard fighting this tape. Luckily some of my longs have done really well lately and we have been doing some PIPE transactions and secondary offerings.
The way the markets trading one would think we were embarking on a new age of prosperity and growth like the 1950s...stocks arent allowed to trade down - crazy - that Russell 2k stat is insane.
When the market looks like its gonna peter out it just makes another burst higher blowing out more shorts and skeptics....there are not many shorts left which IF this market ever trades lower will be a negative not a positive - they will have no bets to cover. Lots of pundits have been talking about perhaps the CDS market being banned which would cause a massive rally they say?? Im not smart enough to know if thats true. What I do know is stocks are jiggy, offerings are flying off the shelves and the fed continues to wage war against people with savings - Bernanke will not be happy until he has inflated a Greenspan worthy bubble - he wants not one penny in savings....again lets just highlight things that should give the crowd who is willing to pay ever higher stock prices pause
1)Sovereign debt issues
2)State governments being broke, Cal, Ill, MI
3)Fed funds rate can only go higher....its zero if you recall
4)The market is overvalued by a good amount unless you listen to the pundits whose job it is to push it higher
5)FDIC is broke or on its way
6)FNM and FRE are a gaping whole bleeding money
7)Banks are still marking their portfolios to fiction and not to market
8)The aholes buying SPUZ wearing 3k dollar suits dont know what the real world is like
9)Taxes are going higher - they have to - or the dollar gets reduced to nothingness take your pick
10)The higher we go without a pullback the more likely a one day debacle becomes
Need I go on??


JB

A link

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spy-volume-back-2010-lows-equity-mutual-funds-run-out-cash

This story above makes the absolute permabid nature of this market all the more confusing...

There is a ton of supply coming to market this week in the form of converts, TARP warrants, an $800 million dollar offering from Comerica Bank - etc etc etc

As far as today being a down day that prediction was sorta right sorta wrong - the DOW was down ever so slightly and the Russell 2k was up ever so slightly.

Sleep tight

JB

Odds???

The Russell 2k has traded higher 16 out of the last 18 trading days - pretty incredible - will tomorrow be 17/19 - seems totally possible but in my opinion unlikely - Im saying this even as Mondays have been the most powerful days of this bull run...Everybody is aware of the monday effect now so perhaps its time to mix it up a bit and have a dare I say down day??
I participated in buying some of the Bank America Tarp warrants last week - they seem like a really good deal to me, 13.3 strike with 10 years until expiration trading for about 8.5 per warrant vs 16.7 stock price - I like it.
I as a father of four and husband of a tech savvy woman have seen IPODs march in to this house as well as a MAC computer - AAPL products are awesome - but am I alone here in thinking the IPAD is a silly item?? I hope its a flop and the stock goes down so I can buy it - I think AAPL will continue to grow the IPHONE business and continue to take share in the PC market- so I hope the IPAD fails the stock gets clocked and then I can buy it.......
Anyway heres hoping for a profitable week that offers plenty of great trades.

JB

Lets see what they are made of

So we have the nonfarm payroll report this morning and the number came in a little better than expected - mind you the economy still shed 36k jobs and the rate is still 9.7% Unemployment but it was still better than expected. So of course the bulls are lathered up buying futures (as they were all night...hmmmm???) pushing them up 3/4 of 1% premarket.
So we have rallied from 1040 to 1129 now in 2 weeks - do the bulls have more room to run? Sure is hard to fade em.....Bonds are getting roughed up, Oil is rallying ($82 bucks a barrel) those are your negatives. The positives are momentum, momentum, momentum.

Dunno what to think here - we are massively overbought but that really doesnt matter these days...Good luck

JB

Getting back to that maximum frustration point

The market is doing nothing except terrify bears and other endangered species called skeptics.
Obama, Bernanke and Geithner can do nothing right except gun the market 24/7 - in the 1930s the market crashed recovered 83% (ie sucked everyone back in) and then dropped like a rock - make no mistake that is exactly what I think is happening now. There are nefarious forces doing their best to make sure the market appears well bid at all times, at some point that will end and end badly. Commodity stocks leading the market higher in a world where employment is a major issue, there are empty office buildings and homes all over the place, and tankers filled with crude floating at sea.....go figure, but more importantly dont believe the hype, we are now excited about false hopes, remember the fed funds rate is still zero - if things were so strong that cheater Bernanke would raise rates and throw savers a bone, but no he knows how tenuous things truly are so in deference to wall st. keeps the fed funds rate at the insane rate of zero. Timing is the key to this bear case, we will not be at the bottom until the bald guy on CNBC is saying you cant be in the market - he stays fervently bullish - lets remember who he works for - perhaps the worlds largest hedge fund GE - triple AAA rating.....you know insanely low borrow rates and lends higher......anyway Im tired and I just want the truth to bubble to the surface.

JB

The song remains the same....

At 4AM the markets hockey sticked higher - I was not up but my 15 minute chart was tracking all the action so I could wake up and take a look when the market inflation team started buying futures...I suppose the bullish flavor of today would be??? Im open to suggestions - Im not sure should it be the pounding of the UKs currency? The fact that the market is being led by IPODs and commodities....oy vey - dont get me started.
1120 acted as major resistance in the past for this market and thats where the futures are "trading" this morning - could be a rejection point butmore than likely the algos will start selling dollars and keep buying futures even though we have rallied 80 SPU points in almost a straight line.
In other news BAC is auctioning off its TARP warrants this morning - should be lots of activity in that stock and its options --could smush volatility even more.
Food for thought - why at the same time as 6 month bills yield last than 1/10th of 1% does Verizon yield almost 7%?? Risk aversion?? I have to say that Verizons balance sheet is a heck of a lot better looking than the US governments right now.....

JB

How long can the BS last??

In a clear message to the market the SPUZ opened up 4 bucks tonight saying 8.8 quakes dont matter - if horrid economic numbers dont matter why should a natural disaster. I truly believe at this point that the morons pushing this market higher right now are so out of touch with the realitys of the world that they are truly the greatest fools. I guess from there isolated penthouses 20 stories above street level and there hampton retreats which stare out at the Atlantic Ocean it might be easy to believe all is well in the world. I just read a headline that mining stocks are rallying in Asia due to the earthquake...I also read a report that says that JP Morgan is more concerned over Cal's debt issues than it is over Greece's issues - Jamie Dimon says that his banks exposure to Greece is hedged - what did they do convince AIG to write more CDS??
Oh well lets see what tomorrow brings - mondays always seem to be up days - will there be another one?

JB

Back...

I was away for a few days doing some skiing in Colorado......great to be away from the flicks and ticks of trading - OK I did check my blackberry for some quotes when I was on the chairlift but still great to be away.
The markets have declared loudly and clearly that it does not want to be bothered by issues such as Greece solvency and does not even want to hear anything about California's budget woes. What the market did want to hear was some rumor that AAPL was going to split its stock 4-1 which was good for a very strong rally in the afternoon hours. The SPUZ had been down as much as 17-18 points and finished down about 3 and tonight are up 3.5 so 24 hours no real movement...
After the close tonight DECK reported numbers and the stock was up $10 afterhours...I own some calls in there so bully bully for me...this is the maker of UGG boots something that in my life as a Dad and husband I have seen my girls and wife wear...and wear alot - expensive boots they are - I usually tell my kids to ask Grandma to buy them for them for Hanukkah...
Anyways economic numbers are having very little baring on the market as yesterdays confidence and housing numbers were total SHIT and todays initial jobless claims almost pierced the 500k mark....oh yeah things are great in the US - no wonder companies are reporting great numbers they are firing everyone.
I continue to buy names like Verizon and MO which have big dividend yields...I also sold some puts in PALM today as the stock seems really washed out...I have some short positions in commodity play FCX and have sold some call spreads in Toyota...Im sure lots of people are short Toyota now but one thing I know about auto businesses is that when things go bad the ship does not just right itself in a week or two - it takes a while if ever - screw Toyota anyways - they were so frickin pompous - I love this smackdown they are getting - they make amazingly boring cars and somehow hoodwinked the whole world into believing that they were perfect when really they were just drinking to much saki at the karaoke bar - I was born and raised in Michigan and my Dad worked for Ford for a loooooooooooooong time - can you tell??
Anyways the market is as usual confusing and challenging but we battle...

JB

Strange days indeed

Markets rally in strait lines, sell off like a ton of bricks, rally in extremely thin trade after hours but ultimately go nowhere fast. Why people are even buying dips when another financial meltdown might be upon us is reason enough to wanna be short...SPUZ are rallying 4.5 afterhours after an uninspiring day of regular session trade - why? Who the heck knows why...I think we need a good flushing of the markets a real scare day, fridays snapback rally needs to be tested.....That day shows you why bulls should be happy that shorts are in the market...not the usual bitching by the worlds most famous stock jockey how the shorts are killing the market.....

Buckle up

JB

Save Greece save the markets blah blah blah

This is so painfully silly - Greece has become the minute to minute proxy for trading SPUZ - if there is a good Greece tidbit you gun the market if there is a bad one you sell SPUZ at the market.
So a country that has 3% of the European Unions GDP is now controlling every tick in the US market - silly, comical, misguided.
The underlying issue of sovereign debt is less comical - this is all just a precursor to the main events, Spain, Portugal and eventually Uncle Sam.....the only way we will not default is if the tax rate is about 90% and if the tax rate is 90% the economy is non existent and if the economy is non existent the market is toast.....you follow yet? We have generations of over consumption to blame for the current predicament - governments have been the kings of overspending - but while the bubbles were inflating you didnt notice..now every penny counts. The future is grim, painful, populations could begin to shrink....poor countries will be ruined as their rich brethren will not be able to afford to support them....It seems so clear to me which means Im fo sure wrong.
Oh well people you know what camp I remain in....

JB

Greece is Saved - maybe, Im not sure, WHO CARES?

The market is rallying this morning to the tune of 1% on news that Greece may be bailed out....I would submit that sovereign risk issues were the excuse to sell stocks that were overvalued and extremely overbought....This gap opening me thinks is a good shorting opportunity....but maybe not Im on the fence. One thing is for certain intra day volatility has picked up and for that I am thankful....

JB

Here we go

Its Monday morning - the bulls took a beating last week and are HOPING for reprieve this week. I would submit that the "issues" that are facing the market (sovereign debt - earnings on stimulus steroids) dont just disappear over night - they fester, and they cause angst. It is my opinion that we are in a downtrend so the tape may continue to be unkind, with bottle rocket rallys along the way.

Good luck

JB

Getting to be that time

This market is broken

After hours we have earnings from CSCO - every penny CSCO goes up the SPUZ rally .25 - stupid.
CSCO is an important company but seriously is that where we are at? Zero liquidity....ZERO.
Moodys made some comments today alluding to the slight problem the US government faces fiscally - here is a snippet

The ratios of general government debt to GDP and to revenue are deteriorating sharply, and after the crisis they are likely to be higher than the ratios of other Aaa-rated countries.

If the current upward trend in government debt were to continue and become irreversible, the rating could come under downward pressure. The trend and the outlook would be more important than any particular level of debt


Are we just supposed to ignore stuff like this and focus in on if CSCO beats the numbers??? Apparently yes...

People are so used to problems just going away and things getting better well Im here to tell you when the shot of cocaine that the government shot in the arm of the economy goes away the withdrawl pains are going to be enormous. The guys at places like PIMCO are saying the right things - El Erian is screaming from the mountain top watch out there is still tremendous risk in the system...I for one believe him and agree. There was a guy on TV from Blackrock today saying multiples are cheap on stocks like IBM and INTC.....that may very well be true but go back to the Gretzky concept of go to where the puck is gonna be...the stock market is the ultimate discounter of future events - its telling us a couple things perhaps - multiples are going down as players realize we are in a steroidal environment and two perhaps earnings could once again fall off a cliff. honestly do we really believe that when places like California and Illinois are insolvent that we are in a world where one should be paying a big premium for future earnings that may or may not materialize?
Be extremely careful - I have opinions but obviously dont know whats gonna happen - I see sovereign CDS blowing out (Greece, Portugal, Dubai) - I read about states (like my own) that are basically insolvent, I read about tightening of lending in China, I read about higher taxes (yes they are coming), I read about an insane deficit at the government level - I read all this stuff but yet market talking heads act as if this is a normal environment - it aint.

JB

Lots has happened

Well we got a selloff...now what? Good earnings (b/c of the financial steroids) were sold and sold hard. Dont forget people we had rallied 70% off the lows....it was overdue. Now remember how overbought we stayed it is entirely possible that we could remain oversold for quite sometime.
Markets nature is to push people to challenge their beliefs and convictions as last years inexorable bull run drove me nearly insane.
On a personal note my wife did a 1/2 marathon this past weekend and raised over $5k for children with terminal illnesses - couldnt be more impressed or proud. Way to go!!

JB

The land of the settng sun.......

China wants to curb growth plain and simple - who really knows whats going on there? No one - but they outwardly are saying they want to decrease lending. Our futures traded down to 1081 last night or down about 12 points but the buyers came in and the futures have clawed back to a much smaller loss of 2 points. Im not quite sure why but when am I ever?
Great earnings from AAPL and TXN last night. AAPL is a juggernaut - only negative was a decrease in IPOD sales - duh everyone has one or 5 in my house's case.
The china tightening of the reigns should hurt commodity and commodity stocks in my opinion.

JB

ahhhhh

The action thursday and friday was just what the Dr. ordered for me - I flattened a ton of short deltas in a bunch of names - sold some vol I was long - and now I will wait and see what tomorrow brings. Probably my biggest winner in this 5% down move was my convert vs common position in Freeport Mcmoran (FCX) - this was about the cheapest synthetic put I could find and it worked perfectly.
The SPUZ just opened up around $4 for the overnight session.
More when I have something good.

Good luck this week

JB

Roll a 7

Imagine you were playing craps and 7s came up 90% of the time - you would bet on 7 and only 7 - who cares about the other 10% of the time?
That is basically the bet the bulls have been making everyday for the last 10 months - its the bet that has fueled a 71% rally in the S&P since march 9th. Jim Cramer tonight muses that he should have been buying today as stocks were on sale - he has been a vocal bull for months OK so he put a super strong buy on GOOG at $625 and now its $575 - it can happen - ok he couldnt say enough about how great AVB was at $85 a share and now its $79 - minor details - overall he has been dead on - he should have just been buying S&Ps and forget the individual stocks. He is playing in a crap game betting on 7s when 7s come up 90% of the time. Thats how its been but now its time to channel your inner Gretzky and figure out not where the puck is but where its gonna be...
The current quarterly earnings are very much like looking at the stats on the back of a Mark Mcgwire or Sammy Sosa baseball card circa 1998 - hormonally altered - HGH in their case - massive stimulus and insanely low rates in stocks case.
Sosas homreun production went from 66 in 1998 to a more normalized 35 a few years later - remove the stimulus and whats left? Can the economy fire nice growth on its own or is it addicted to stimulus? Are Bernanke and Obama going to end up testifying in from of congress a few years from now fessing up about stimulus kind of like all of those baseball players?? If you are long you better hope not.
Earnings are coming in well and its hard to get your head around a decline but its possible - no one is looking for it - everyone is bullish - and we have not had a meaningful correction in months....Go to where the puck is gonna be - and when you get there let me know if Im on the right path.

JB

JB

I am thoroughly confused

Friday - JPM and INTC have "good" earnings - the both sell off and the market follows....
Today - Citi has "bad" earnings - rallys as does the market.
Today builders confidence number was worse than expected, ABC consumer confidence worse than expected, Insider selling continues at record pace - with virtually no buying, AAPL reports that its unveiling a new product that has been rumored and expected for weeks - and the stock rallys like $8 bucks?? What gives?? Apparently todays rally was fueled by the hope that Massachusetts senate seat was going to a republican - which I guess is bullish b/c it will derail the healthcare reform plan???? Who knows - so we have gridlock in Washington and thats a good thing right??
The VIX continues lower almost closed below 17 today - thats cool - forget about the facts that California and other states are basically broke - forget about the fact that the FHA is raising fees and making lending tougher http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Federal-Housing-apf-268619640.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Forget about everything - come in and buy the market everyday, every night - there is no risk - outlier events have no impact (Dubai - the Greece situation). Be long or be wrong!!!

JB

A well oiled machine

Friday was the first day with any selling pressure in 2010 - the futures open after this long weekend up about $5 points - negating much of fridays losses, the path of least (or no) resistance continues to be up. I guess the market is playing close attention to the situation in Mass - i would imagine republican is superbullish and democrat is just bullish - but im not really following the story to closely. Also noteworthy is that GOOG is backpedaling somewhat on its threat to leave China - that should send some ripples thru two major beta plays GOOG and BIDU - Bidu rallied on the GOOG news from 386 to 467 in a week. I put on some downside put butterflys in BIDU on that big rally last week - we'll see how those play out, I would imagine BIDU will give back some of those gains.
Anyways earnings news will be flowing in all week along with Citi and Goldman this week. Random thought if Citibank ever makes $1 per share again they will make over $20 billion..... thats funny.
Anyways - we'll see what tomorrow brings but this market has had an incredibly hard time stringing two down days togther - i guess first and foremost cuz you need one down day - but I digress.

JB

Interesting moment

Google is a powerhouse by anyones definition - Im not talking about its stock Im talking about its brand, name recognition, etc....They are threatening to terminate business operations in China - this is a watershed moment in my opinion for the communist country. Do they really want to be perceived as a country that one of the most revolutionary (no pun intended) companies in the world says is unworkable?? I highly doubt it - just my opinion. China needs to work this out with Google - they really do not want to turn away businesses do they?? Or perhaps Google is just playing a poker hand here maybe there is something big going on behind the surface - who knows? To me its an incredibly interesting situation.


JB

The worlds economic hope

hinges largely on China these days - I present you with an article that should make you shiver if you believe in China as the economic savior...http://www.marketwatch.com/story/google-says-its-considering-pulling-out-of-china-2010-01-12?dist=afterbell


JB

I hate the world

So everyone was expecting a big jobs number and yet it didnt happen and the market is miraculously unchanged. In fact the jobs number was disappointing - the only buyer of futures is the Obama administration - but who has more money then them. Its absurd - I should be getting paid today - big time -yet Im not the SPUZ are down $1 - its so absurdly rigged Im ready to throw in the towel.


JB

Its very obvious

That major players know that there will be a way better than expected jobs number tomorrow (see this mornings post) the SPUZ are turning a total blind eye to the fact that many important highflyers AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN are giving up the ghost a bit today. The question is when the number finally prints tomorrow (dont get me started on how stupid it is to fixate on these things anyways) and all of these guys have been buying ahead of it for two weeks - can we chug yet higher?? In two words, yes or no (ok that was three words). We have been rallying (except for the last hour on the 31st) since dec 21 - one might think we could get some profit taking but one might have thought that for a long time.
There was a juicy nugget in the home town paper yesterday - the University of Illinois is owed 436 million by the Illinois state government - the governor says the state should be able to pay some of that money after "a next round of borrowings" - the university says they are going to order 10 day unpaid furloughs for almost the entire staff this summer - this is unprecedented says the University president - he also said they are just going to have to hike tuition massively - k where are the payers of that tuition going to come up with money for a "massive hike"? I suppose they are getting "massive" raises at work - or maybe their stock portfolios have just taken off the last 9 months?? Again dont worry about real issues such as this just continue to worry about if AMZN is gonna hold at the 50 day moving average....

JB

Interesting

I read a post over at WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM about tomorrows nonfarm payroll report - it says basically due to a host of seasonal statistical reasons and the real nitty gritty of how that number is reported that tomorrow might show an add of over 300k jobs - clearly if that is reported the bulls and CNBC will be breathlessly saying that the jobs recovery is here yada yada yada - it certainly will grab headlines - thats if this research report I read is right - I would imagine at somepoint today GS will put out its prediction on the jobs number - perhaps that is fueling this unyielding bid in the futures - they know the jobs number will be a major positive surprise (regardless of it being a BS massaged number) and tomorrow morning on some huge gap higher they will sell??? Dunno - just food for thought.

JB

Angst

Is it me or is there a lot of angst in this never ending bull run? I sense something is happening - perhaps its that the big nasdaq leaders all seem like they are on a crash course with one another in the mobil space - perhaps its that Greece is about to default and YES will need a bailout - perhaps its that commodity stocks - coal, steel, fertilizer are leaping - these were the last gasp movers in 2008 as well. Maybe Im just looking for something? The SPUZ are stubbornly bid as usual - and imagine this the nasdaq futures are unched with GOOG down 11.5 and AAPL unchanged, RIMM down 1.15 (RIMM is so yesterday) - how is that possible?
Sign of the times Beazer homes is doing a secondary and convert offering tonight - It will be interesting to see what the coupon is in there convert - im gonna try and buy some - but its a 50 million dollar deal so Im sure its being sold to a couple large funds and it will never trade ever.

Anyways Im long a little Citibank here (the idiot trade) leaking out around 3.6.

Later

JB

You are getting Sleepy

After a harrowing 5 point futures dip overnight the drones are back at it with futures clawing back close to unched on the day - surely they will be positive at 830 when the stock gunners start in earnest.
Because the beta chasers need something to do everyday this morning BIDU is up 3.6% - im sure there is a great reason why.
Jim Cramer said this morning - "can you ever imagine Ford back at $9??" is he serious? is this to mean that the business cycle will never turn negative again and that Fords equity price might drop? The bullish sentiment outthere is thick - the vix continues to drop, pullbacks last for minutes, people dont exaclty understand why the market keeps going up but they say they "want to ride it" sounds dangerous to me.

Good luck

JB

New year same ole bullshit

The slightest hint of weakness this morning was met with strange, bizarre unwavering buying interest. Kinda like when you were a kid and you were afraid someone was gonna beat you up and your older brother said dont worry I got your back. This older brothers name is Sam and he is usually called Uncle. Makes it tuff to trade - cuz you never know when that game is gonna end.
BETA names are mixed - commodity stocks are higher , yada yada yada.

JB

The Consumer will Save Us

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126263231055415303.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories

Or maybe not??

JB

Wow - thud

An enormous move today 1.55% or so. For four hours of the trading session the market was in a 3 point SPU range - so they were willing to chase stocks up 1.5% but not a penny more till you wake up in the morning and the SPUZ are up the requisite 4 to 5 bucks. WTF? Who pays ever higher prices all the time - we are up like 8 out of the last 10 trading days - not bad!!! Once again remember Barack Obamas famous words "I think its a good time to buy stocks" from about 9 months ago. Would he ever say something like "lets not be pigs people, trees dont grow to the sky" - nah thats unAmerican it has to end in a thud - we are the bubble country, stocks, credit, housing, stocks again - whats next? Oil is getting very pricey again which is FOSURE a negative for 99% of the US populace. Do you like paying $3 and more for your fillups? In this recovering economy is that gonna be a help when people/companies start paying more and more for oil?? All Bernanke has to do is stop printing dollars raise rates a bit and oil will get crushed - but he wont do that- so oil will go higher and eventually will crush this budding recovery. We are in a box - and each side is sealing shut - medecine has to be taken. Unless you are one of the special companies AAPL, GOOG, AMZN that is really experiencing huge growth the world sucks. The disconnect between the stock market and the realities as I see em have never been bigger. People say multiples are low - well honestly should you be paying a lot for stocks when there is 11 trillion dollars of tax payer money backstopping everything and fedfunds are 0-.25% - there is only one direction those rates can go. All this is unimportant to what the next "move" will be in the market - the beast is gonna do what its gonna do - this is a masterfully peaceful tape that has a blind eye turned to anything negative and a never ending desire to print higher. Commodity stocks are powering the market higher I read somwhere today - ahh ok so all your inputs are going up so "markets" zoom higher - unless you produce that commodity this is a negative. If you are a builder and copper is getting more expensive by the day this is a negative if you are Freeport Mcmoran and you mine copper this is a positive. blah blah blah

Good Luck tomorrow

JB

Blast off

Stocks are loving 2010 so far as the major averages are up 1.5% or so - futures are well bid as they were all night, Oil is flying higher as is gold etc....you get the idea. A world meltup day - why not?
The zenmaster beta stocks are all higher with one exception, AMZN. There must be a glitch in the computer program that guns these names everyday. Nothing of real value to add this AM - bonds are flat today even with a strong ISM number today perhaps to many people are playing for a zoom higher in rates??? Crowded trades are killers.
Gas is about to be $3 bucks a gallon soon - but why would the guys on wall street care about that??

JB

2010 Trading is underway

The SPUZ are trading and so far 2010 looks just like 2009 - a nice calm $4 buck advance in the overnight session. Im not ready to harp on the endless bullshit rally we have been enduring for the last 9 months so Im gonna do what all of the big dawgs do Im gonna make some 2010 predictions.
In no particular order
1)The Iranian government will be overthrown either by the population or by the population with an assist by an Israeli Military strike.
2)Barack Obama will surge momentarily in popluarity as jobs start being created again but he will then plummet in popularity as bond yields zoom higher crippling home prices and crushing stocks - the plunge protection team will give up.
3)Goldman Sachs goes private and will end up screwing Warren Buffet as they will take themselves private at a price that makes his warrants worthless - he being the ultimate gamer will just smile as the joke will be on them - he has hedged all of his Goldman Warrants by shorting stock in the 160-170 range.
4)State governments will continue to suffer as demand for services will continue to rise as tax revenues stay stubbornly stagnant. States will be going to Uncle Sam hat in hand looking for cash - luckily I live in Illionois - el presidentes home state
5)Consumers will stay frugal and some less imperative retailers will dissapear. Perhaps Saks, perhaps Sears or maybe some mall favorites like American Eagle Outfitters.
6)The American Public will become increasingly tired of business as usual in Washington and congressman and senators will be under major fire as they are totally out of touch with what people really need. Political unrest will creep into the picture in America.
7)A few pro sport franchises will go bust and actually shutdown
8)Chrysler will only make the Jeep brand as no one wants a Chrysler or a Dodge.
9)Jim Cramer will be taken off of CNBC
10)Banks stocks languish again as loand demand is tepid and credit quality for the consumer continues to deteriorate - credit cards become harder and harder to get.

JB