Greed is Good????

Where are we - but more importantly where are we going. I am a huge fan of Todd Harrison's website Minyanville and today he had a great random thought: "If I told you the tape would run 66.6% directly into the downtrend from the 2007 top—which happens to be a 50% retracement of the entire decline that begin at S&P 666—what would be you're preferred positioning?"

My reading of that thought is that he like I is fully expecting some sort of meaningful selloff. The S&P is up 11 out of the last 12 days - I have read in a few places tonight that we might not even pull back at all now - the market is in the sweet spot etc....Take AMZN today a sellside fire downgraded the name and it was down .34 cents - this after the stock has rallied some 40 bucks in the last 4 weeks - the bulls have not taken any heat in so long that they are not going to sell one share of anything - as a bear I must admit the strength of this tape is remarkable.
What can change this uberbullish tape? Certainly if the fed started to crash this easy money, dollar smashing party that would have an impact, obvioulsy some major geopolitical situation (think Iran - I pray this is not the catalyst), perhaps if some of the big firms just started downgrading some big names to the market (oh wait that happened today). Commerical RE is a big problem, everybody knows it perhaps that is why it is not hitting the market - I get that - maybe it should not hit the market but why not the REITS?? The REITS are firm although today gave up the ghost a little bit. I have positions in AVB, ACC,SPG,SRS and MPG so I pay close attention to that space.
5 or 6 deals tonight by the way - these deals have had zero impact on the market over the last 5 weeeks or so - I doubt tonight will be any different.
The VIX closed at 22 and change tonight - getting cheaper by the day - this in my opinion is a bearish signal - people are getting verrrrrrrrrrry comfortable on the long side.
Random thoughts
Im long the 180-170-160 butter in GS - come to papa
I have rolled the UAL 7 dollar buywrite 3 months in a row
Treasuries are just silly
PCLN and AMZN are sillier
The Blackhawks are just awesome

JB