Nutin but the facts........

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/realpoint-october-cmbs-update-326-billion-october-delinquencies-504-yoy-increase-forecasts-6

This must be why the REITs exploded higher this afternoon............

JB

Simply Stunning

What is the reason why Dubai is defaulting?? Because they cant rent or sell the tremendous amount of Real Estate that has been constructed over there - so what sector took off in the last hour with a vengeance rarely seen? The REITS!!
SPG +2.93
DLR +2.13
AVB +3.12
ACC +.93
These real estate plays were hotter than a hooker in a room full of 16 year old boys! Once again the logical trade NEVER works!!
The other news of the day was that Target stinks, TGT -1.14 and AMZN is hot to trot +4.17 - apparently online shopping is really catching on (duh!!!!!!!!!!!)
Have a good evening

JB

Feel compelled to mention

After a scare on thursday and friday where markets actually displayed a modicum of fear at 10:34 PM this evening we are back to monkeyhammering the dollar and rallying all equities eveywhere. Spuz are up $7 .25 or .67% - so away we go. Tomorrow is the last day of the month so portfolio managers everywhere will be protecting their portfolios - except for the happless bears (right???)
Well we'll see if these gains hold, build or decline over night - my guess is they will fade (no surprise there) I just cant handle how stupid it is to contiue buying US equities and every other equity on earth because the dollar is weakening - its stupid, stupid , stupid.
Be patient bears our day is coming - and its getting sooner - if one emerging market is gonna blow up (Dubai) you can be sure there will be more remember last year how mortgage issues were "contained" - well now 1/4 US mortgages is underwater....so take peoples claims of containment with an enormous grain of salt.

JB

Since we last spoke

A few interesting things have happened - Dubai which literally was building towers to the heavens has stumbled (pretty badly). It has roiled (probably most used word when it comes to messed up credit markets) their creditors and caused some pukage in world equity markets. The damage to US markets was mild at best - and the most notable thing was that the lows of the market were the opening ticks - the dip buyers bought the market immediately so that by the end of the day the loss for the Dow was 150 points. I woke up and read article after article about how to take advantage of the silly selloff....now the selloff maybe over done (I have no idea) but the fact that everyone was looking to buy the dip makes it unlikely that this Dubai issue will be shortlived or easily contained. Anyways we'll hear plenty about this all week Im sure - there will proabably be constatn talk about wether or not the UAE will bail them out, which banks are reeling from this (HSBC,RBC) who is next etc??
To me with the S&P up 65% from the lows there is ample room for stocks to correct and this MAY be the catalyst...it MAY not be as well. Selloffs have been one day wonders - but when sovereign debt issues come into play Id say there is potential for more than a one day hiccup to the downside. I suppose its possible that tomorrow we will return to the regular scheduled program of buying AAPL,AMZN,BIDU, GOOG etc...The other important news we will hear tomorrow most likely is how the insanity of black friday went - this notion of getting up at 3AM to go buy something, anything at a store for Xmas is kookoo - I have had to go out at 3AM to buy my kids Motrin or Tylenol and I must say its not fun - but to each his own.

Cya in the AM

JB

Three things Im not thankful for

Bernanke
Obama
Geithner

JB

Trumpets are a blaring

Jobless claims were only 466k, stocks cant selloff, dollar going down, gold going up, oil going up, VIX at $20 - no risk left in the system, none, in AMZN and AAPL we trust.
Banks are heavy today but AMZN isnt it so there really is no reason to ever sell a share of anything ever again, the SPUZ are on autopilot - $8 bucks a day again - I dont know why I bother coming in these days.
Anyways as vols keep dropping call spreads widen out - Im selling an SPX call spread a 15 points pread for 8.2 all I can (will) lose is 7.8.

Enjoy Thanksgiving

JB

Long idea

I bought some FMLP, troubled mall operator - thinking if GGP can work out all of their loans and the stock in bankruptct mind you can go from .35 cents to 6.75 maybe FMLP can go from .10 cents to .75 cents....in this tape you never know and if im worng all I lose is a dime.....

JB

9:55 PM - stupididty continues

Gold up $7.4, SPUZ up $2, Dollar slightly lower - rinse, repeat, rinse. So in the AM oil will attempt to shake off bearish API data tonight and cling to the higher everything trade....its just silly, silly, silly.
Shit I better go hedge my long gold with some long stock futures??
Boy oh boy has this administration created a monster - zero percent interest rates, dollar printing press etc, equity revulsion to equity adoration - gimee a break - Obama will be a one term wonder (I pray) and Bernanke - the man who killed the dollar - he'll have quite a speaking tour but he wont accept dollars as payment just gold bullion.

JB

My Brain hurts

How do I describe today? Do you remember when you were in school and you would stare at the clock wondering how its possible that time was not moving as some teacher droned on about some inane subject? The market today almost had me fooled into believing that we could see some downside but manipulating the market higher this week is easier than almost any other week - its Thanksgiving people feel good they dont want to bother themselves with the trainwreck that the USD and the world economy is. For now listen to Jim Cramer as the word from on high is trickling down to him at his GE sponsored post - he remains a bull in a world of bears - I could not disagree with him more but hey he's on TV and Im not.
If there was no trade today there will be no trade tomorrow so tomorrow I will clean my desk at the office and pay attention to the market with half an eye.

Over and out

JB

Scary corrolations

AMZN and GOLD move in the same direction at all times now - the "traders" who are trading based off of every tick in the USD are buying and selling these things at the same times - its BEYOND stupid. Kinda makes sense on one level, GOLD is the long for the inevitable default by the US on its massive debt load, AMZN helps that situation as buyers dont pay sales tax...sales tax go where people?? Government coffers.
Anyway the SPUZ were down most of the night till they shot up at 2 am, they sold off about 6,7 points in early trade this AM and are now unchanged...
Nothing to report.

JB

I didnt get the memo

That pre thanksgiving trade now started on the monday beforehand. Huge gap, all the momo names going nuts, no real chances to trade. Got one good trade in POT 3.5 points on a trade but it was against long vol - and vols got creamed today - pie in the face ugly.
The world we live in now nobody even is bothered by the fact that oil,gold,treasuries, and stocks are all up together....I thought my portfolio would fare pretty well in a gap opening - it didnt I got hurt on long volatility and my long positions really underperformed -
Here were your big winners

AAPL + 2.85%
AMZN +2.58%
BIDU +2.47%
GOOG +2.2%

yada, yada, yada. It appears that the market has decided that AAPL and GOOG are going to split up the smartphone world and thats it end of story.
How bout Gold up another $18 dollars today? Amazing - simply amazing - I dont remember a time when the stock markets direction and golds were so linked - if the market gets killed it means the dollar is ralyling which will mean gold is for sale - to qoute Walter Sopchek "has the whole world gone crazy?"

Cya tomorrow

JB

Holiday market

Market players are turning on the holiday trading programs a little early, we wake up to find SPUZ up $11 points or 1% - the dollar is down this morning. Gold is melting up another 12-13 dollars - oil is a tad highers and the beta names are shaking off last weeks minor drubbing and leaping 1-2% pre market.
Nothing major to report.

JB

Whats the deal?

2 down openings in a row?? The bulls must be tapping there qoutrons - huh? at CNBC the anchors must be telling the camera people that the teleprompters are on the fritz - this cant possibly happen two down openings in a row. We'll see - at the opening is SPX, NDX, and RUT option expiration - perhaps our favorite bailed out NYC firm is short some lower strikes so they are leaning on the futures to capture their profits?? Nah they would never do that.
Huge secondary and convertible offering from DRYS last night - kinda makes me like the stock here at $6.15 I m gonna look to buy stock and sell the December $6 calls - the buywrite should offer about a 10% return for a month - obvioulsy there is risk in that trade but the company is flush with cash now....
Hawks absolutely crushed last night - crushed 7-1.


JB

Beta for sale get your beta

The generals of BETA are showing that beta cuts both ways for once. AAPL, AMZN,BIDU,GOOG,GS,PCLN are bleeding the cut is manageable but you never know when you go from needing a bandaid to a tourniqet. The SPUZ have been holding at 1089 pretty well - why? I dont know.
The other day I read that at some UBS homebuilders conference Hovnanian (HOV) announced that they are buying land - prices are a steal - this is a company that is sitting on 1.5 billion in unsold inventory - they are taking their cash and buying land instead of retiring preferred stock (HOVNP) at 22% of par - brilliant! Pisses me off to no end. Land may be cheap but its cheap for a reason there are 18 million vacant homes in the US right now - just what we need more homes.
Anyway the market is down about 1.5% as I write this where we will end up nobody knows.

Later
JB

Kinda losing it

My frustration level with the market is hitting a major boiling point - I dont, wont , cant see the constant bullcase and due to that 12 of the last 13 days have told me Im a moron who doesn't deserve to have a seat at the trading table. So this morning when I wake up to see the SPUZ down $8 I dont even get excited anymore - its just a question as to how long it will take for them to turn positive on the day. So far my 1108 TOP call from the other day has been right - but I have been calling a top in my head since 910...........It sucks feeling stupid, self esteem is an important thing - mine is sinking like the titanic in the last few minutes - fast!
We need more assets in my fund - 6.5 million just aint gonna cut it - kinda hard to attract lots of capital when you are up 11% for the year and the market is going up 5% a week.

Oh well, heres hoping for a good one.

JB

Does anybody read this? How about a comment?

Figure this was a good time to ask cuz the algos are doing there things buying the reits after the death spiral they had going on yesterday afternoon - sucking in new shorts just to jam em today.
I want to say the DOW will be down 200 points today - I mean I saw a pig flying on my way to the office this morning. The bullishness out there is astounding so I remain stubbornly bearish.

JB

Greed is Good????

Where are we - but more importantly where are we going. I am a huge fan of Todd Harrison's website Minyanville and today he had a great random thought: "If I told you the tape would run 66.6% directly into the downtrend from the 2007 top—which happens to be a 50% retracement of the entire decline that begin at S&P 666—what would be you're preferred positioning?"

My reading of that thought is that he like I is fully expecting some sort of meaningful selloff. The S&P is up 11 out of the last 12 days - I have read in a few places tonight that we might not even pull back at all now - the market is in the sweet spot etc....Take AMZN today a sellside fire downgraded the name and it was down .34 cents - this after the stock has rallied some 40 bucks in the last 4 weeks - the bulls have not taken any heat in so long that they are not going to sell one share of anything - as a bear I must admit the strength of this tape is remarkable.
What can change this uberbullish tape? Certainly if the fed started to crash this easy money, dollar smashing party that would have an impact, obvioulsy some major geopolitical situation (think Iran - I pray this is not the catalyst), perhaps if some of the big firms just started downgrading some big names to the market (oh wait that happened today). Commerical RE is a big problem, everybody knows it perhaps that is why it is not hitting the market - I get that - maybe it should not hit the market but why not the REITS?? The REITS are firm although today gave up the ghost a little bit. I have positions in AVB, ACC,SPG,SRS and MPG so I pay close attention to that space.
5 or 6 deals tonight by the way - these deals have had zero impact on the market over the last 5 weeeks or so - I doubt tonight will be any different.
The VIX closed at 22 and change tonight - getting cheaper by the day - this in my opinion is a bearish signal - people are getting verrrrrrrrrrry comfortable on the long side.
Random thoughts
Im long the 180-170-160 butter in GS - come to papa
I have rolled the UAL 7 dollar buywrite 3 months in a row
Treasuries are just silly
PCLN and AMZN are sillier
The Blackhawks are just awesome

JB

Minor Slippage

We have minor league selling action this morning - stocks are dropping gently SPUZ are down a whopping $4 points. Slamazon (AMZN) is down a couple bucks this AM - just presenting the next great buying opportunity - insert tongue in cheek right now.
If I was long would I sell into this minor selloff - no way!! The market always bounces back.
The only thing going for my call of a top is that people always assume that the weeks leading up to thanksgiving and Xmas are bullish - if I know one thing its that nothing is certain.

JB

Silliness

Meredith Whitney (bank analyst) mad some comments this afternoon about how she has become quite bearish and that the banks in her opinion are under capitalized. The SPUZ started dropping when she made these comments...they dropped a bit buy nothing major - the bald guy on bubblevision immediately castigated her and "called her out for non rigorous work" - this from a guy who has the "lightning round" and makes his decisions on stocks while throwing bull dolls at the camera in a split second - whatever - make your own decisions. Meredith sells her research to clients - why would she call it any other way than how she sees it - the other party needs advertisers for his website and his TV slot - you know in the Obama America Im kind of afraid to express these thoughts.
I read a story today which I find disconcerting - the SEIU (service employess union) is going to picket in front of Goldmans DC offices that they should give back their bonuses....see this is problematic - people read about Goldmans plan to pay enormous bonuses and people have read the snippets that GS was saved by the government and they feel its unfair - now GS has paid back its TARP investment (we wont talk about any FDIC backed bonds they might have sold) but its always gonna be there - they were saved by the government. When government and capitalism mix this is the result - the SEIU telling them to give back their bonuses "its not fair".
I am afraid that GS will be a victim of its own success - I would not be at all surprised in the future if the SEC starts hounding them, if the stock gets clobbered and they take themselves private - if its broken up into different entities etc.....
I wont even comment how insanely overbought this market is, interestingly today AMZN closed in the red...Turn those machines back on.
Im sticking with my call that today was the top - glutton for punishment.

JB

TOP in the SPX

1108 - TOP - why not? - I am making my call - no one is fading this market anymore - no one.

JB

Groundhog day

SPUZ up, Bonds up, Oil up, Gold up, Dollar down..
Did you see the movie with Bill Murray - Groundhog Day? This market is groundhog day.
I would imagine the beta masters will be leading the charge again today - you know the four letter usual suspects.

Trade em well,

JB

Crazy

SO we have a little selloff yesterday and today after a horrible trade balance number and another dissapointing consumer ocnfidence number we have the dow up100 points - or a total erasing of yesterdays move. AMZN,AAPL,GOOG, etc continue to lead the beta names to ever higher prices - these stocks are no more important to the averages then are any other names including JPM which acts like a ton of bricks. How AAPL can carry the entire techworld is beyond me - I believe the tech world is a zero sum game - AAPL wins, MSFT, RIMM, etc lose - but they are all melting up - its like Y2K all over again - and AMZN dont get me started it has a forward multiple of like 65 70 times now...kookoo kookoo.
On a total random note today I have listened to tunes by
John Mayer
Joe Jackson
Public Enemy
Taylor Swift

wierd

JB

Thoughts??

I dont have many this morning. The market is having some sort of reflexive bounce back from yesterdays drubbing (my tongue cant be any further in my cheek).
Complacency rules the day - watch out - its friday the 13th....

JB

Yawn

The market is selling off to the tune of $7 SPU points...not exactly the type of move that is going to inspire vol buyers - but a step in the right direction.
I want to give the award for the most overbought stock in my history of trading, AMZN - this thing is outrageous - does anyone not own this yet?? My partner says that markets like to shake people in and out of positions - the REITS are uber strong as this huge wave of refinancing is looming - markets want to push you to your maximum frustration point, to your breaking point and then when you cant take it anymore and you throw in the towel guess what happens? You are freaking "dead on balls accurate". The market has kind of failed at 1100 twice now - the way this tape is it would seem that one morning (perhaps tomorrow) we will walk in to see the SPUZ up 15 trading at 1105 and then we will never look back - now in order for that to happen we will have to push multiples on AMZN, GOOG, BIDU etc to 50-75 land but who gives a shit - never confuse a bull market with brains.
Trade of the day for me - I am buying Feb 16 calls in BAC and shorting stock slighlty more than delta neutral - the REITS are the obvious short for the coming CRE crash so be sneaky short the banks instead - bigger floats - harder to get whipped around by your back office pulling stock from you.

JB

Misery upon Misery

Im 36, I run a tiny hedge fund that does not pay me what I need to live but we just started 9 months ago - so I have to keep plugging away - besides I hear the job market aint great these days. When I was in my late 20s I made a bunch of dough trading but that well is running dry - or at least almost. I live in a world where most people have good incomes, take vacations all the time, drive the nicest cars, live in enormous houses etc....Im slipping, falling, starting to worry about every dollar and for good reason, Im the father of four wonderful kids that I need to provide for - I have to - I cant let them down or my wife. So I get up everyday at 545 AM to do the only thing I know , (or at least some days I know) trade. I buy and sell stocks, options, commodities, and bonds. If I make my investors money I make money - I need to be right about the market, about my arbitrage positions, about my timing, about everything. I report my progress ($$$) to my investors monthly but I know how Im doing every second of every minute of every day - from the seond I wake up at 545 AM, flip on my blackberry to see where stock futures are trading till the second I go to sleep at night and see what overseas markets are doing.
My fund has returned about 11% YTD, good but not great - I want great - remember Im trying to attract more capital - everybody loves a winner. We started off great - back when the big boys this year were shitting in their pants we were scooping up preferred shares and hedging with options at literally once in a lifetime prices, markets were hopping, up , down all around - but then about 3 months ago the markets became an orderly place again, stocks while reviled back when we were buying em became the objects of peoples adoration. So for the last three months we have sat here and not lost money but battled each and every months to survive - b/c I am so bearish I cant see straight. When you are working with a bias which I most certainly am its tuff, but it is impossible for me to be bullish right now when I read the macro news, state budgets are disastrous, employment sucks (just tonight AMAT and ADBE cut more jobs in the beloved tech sector), the dollar is being kicked to the curb, treasuries are stubbornly bid, and gold is a G-D damned moon shot. And oh yeah stocks have had the sharpest recovery since the great depression - how bout a little yin and yang - how bout a gut wrenching selloff once in a while - how bout some fucking fear - how bout the fact that the market is led around like a little bitch by the likes of AAPL,AMZN,BIDU,GS,GOOG and other insanely overvalued companies is not a good thing. I am not a dumb guy, Im not a genius either - is it wrong for me to believe that after 7 days of rallying in a row that we could get a monster downday - I mean who comes to work everyday and says buy em, buy em buy em - (ok besides Cramer)? Dont get me wrong I have longs as well and have long positions in companies capital structure but as far as the overall averages go we are so due for a pullback - one that lasts, that shakes people, not a one day wonder, not a week , but a month or two of pain.
Bottom line is once again Im struggling at the outset of a month and I hope I'll be able to pull it out - but the stress ah the stress. I love trading and I hate it - but I tell you if I ever become wealthy running this hedge fund I will call it quits - because that means I have done right by my investors, by my family, and by myself and then Ill sit back, stare at the ocean and probably just start crying and hopefully when Im sitting there my wife and kids will be next to me b/c doing this for a living aint easy on them either.

JB

Veterans Day

My Grandfather (rest in peace) was in the US army in WWII, not on the front lines or anything, too bad he was not given the opportunity to kick some Nazi ass but his assignment was certainly safer, but regardless he was sent overseas away from his wife, my grandmother, away from his business, parents, brothers,sisters - his life. Knowing him I doubt he complained, he probably felt it was an honor and his duty - thats the kind of guy he was - damn I wish I was like that. Thats my closest connection to a serviceman/woman.
Just thought it right to think about him today (even though I do almost everyday - and wish I could talk to him).

To all the Veterans - I salute you and thanks.

JB

24/7 Meltup

We wake up to find the SPUZ piercing the 1100 dollar level and why not?? The dollar is being sacrificed once again, "animal spirits" are running wild and all is well in the US.
The momo names are gettting jiggy with it early on here AAPL, AMZN , GOOG, BIDU, GS you get the drift. Watch Macys (M) today as it reported earnings early this morning - they are a non target/walmart type place that might give us a clue as to how retailers that dont sell you the stuff you absolutely need everyday are faring.
I have to hand it to the Obama administration they are proving to be quite apt at bubble blowing, markets have not acted this well since Easy Al was running the fed.....Al facilitated the biggest housing bust of all time, what bust will Bernanke bring us? At this point the only thing that can derail constant stock market gains would be if the printing press at the mint breaks down and the part they need takes 6 months to make.
As far as trying to predict when this will end I have given up as I beleive many bears have. Just listen to the bald guy - he has all the answers.

JB

nada,zilch,nutin

After a huge rally yesterday the futures this morning were down a whopping 4 points which as soon as the regular session casino opened was seen as a great entry point and the market promlty rallied, we have since reversed those gains and see the down down less than 1 point. narrow, narrow ranges. Priceline is up an eyepopping $31 dollars - or %18 today - they had good earnings I guess. It opened up $20 and then just chughed higher - it appears that this is a heavily shorted name.....Who buys a stock that opens up 20 and expects to make money?? I guess smart people.
I was informed by my Dad that Ken Fisher expects the S&P to get to 1300 by February - I guess that most certainly could happen but lets just consider the source this is a guy who runs a long stock portfolio, who writes in Forbes periodically and is considered by many to be a permabull.
his point of view is about the most bullish I have heard.
Anyway - today was a real snoozer - the decrease in volatility of the indeces today was surprising to me.
later
JB

Sickening

The notstop party in equities is really heating up today as people are lathered up to buying AAPL, GOOG, GS any and all commodity plays as the dollar is CRUSHED yet again. CIT, CAPMARK chap 11, FNM, FRE, 10.2% unemplyment - total nonfactors - people are happy to chase stocks....risk is no longer a four letter word, since Buffet announced his purchase of BNI the market has rallied almost 6% in a strait line. the SPUZ have been sitting at their highs of up $18 for the last half hour - bears are once again crushed and bulls are sipping margaritas. I cant think of any good reasons to be excited about the US economy - there is 3 trillion in stimulus out there and jobs are still disappearing - what will it take? The vix is plunging, bt not as much as you'd expect on an uber bullish tape day like today.
Last week I commented that trend lines had been violated I know now why I dont believe in charts - that violation has vanished like a fart in the wind.

JB

Geting hosed here

So last night after another 5 banks were shut by the FDIC Friday the SPUZ open unched and proceed to trade up $11 in a strait line overnight - rally brought to you by a further crushing of the dollar....WTF??? Simply insane if you ask me - simply insane.
AAPL, GOOG, GS, leading the charge....banks are way underperforming today - who needs them we have the bank of last resort Uncle Sam helping everybody but the people who need it most.
The VIX has gotten smashed in the last week - I am buying mroe vol here (PUTS AND CALLS) - that strategy has worked well for me. I would be loading up on vol in the REITS....stormy seas coming in that space.

over and out

JB

oh boy

OK - forget about the fact that FNM lost 19 billion in the last quarter and needs another 15 billion from the fed...forget about that little 34 billion dollar problem, FNM is now going to rent the houses they have foreclosed upon to the defaulters...so now the US government is going to be getting these calls..."uh Mr. Obama this is Mr. Jones at 6500 Main street, my toilet is backed up, can you send someone out to fix it..". And yet we continue to let the "banks" live in this fantasy land that they are adequately capitalized, FNM is saying we cant even sell these houses (collateral) if we wanted to so we are just gonna sit on em (cuz they can). What a freaking mess, yet the bald guy is saying housing has bottomed....how could it have when FNM is now becoming a landlord?
Unemplyment rate as of this morning is 10.2%....uh Mr. Obama - where is the yes we can stuff? yes we can go to 15% unemployment - hope there are lots of extra bedrooms in the whitehouse.
The SPUZ are selling off $7 before the opening - this market is so crazy it will probably rally on this jobs number...
Anyway my wife is running a 1/2 marathon - she is training for it and if she can do it Im gonna be real impressed but I dont want her to become an everyday runner, its bad for her health in the long run...kness, bladder falling out - that kinda stuff. So lets do the marathon and then limit running to the important stuff, like to the bathroom or to the plane....

JB

Confused yet??

This market is wacko...I guess we are rallying today b/c of CSCO, the ability to price the Hyatt IPO, and jobless claims coming at 511k (10k better than expected...) Yesterdays closing hour was so bearish, and then you wake up to find this move, SPUZ up 10?? Remember extreme volatility is a sign of a top or a bottom....being that we are up 60% from the lows....you know what I think this volatility is signaling.
Anyways - have a good day.

JB

Wierd, wierd market

The VIX has gone ballistic, CIT has gone bankrupt, IPOs are being canceled,serious momo leaders are having a very hard time stabilizing, AAPL, GS, etc....but looking at a large gap lower this morning in the SPUZ of about $12 bucks the market rallied all the way back and closed higher.
The powers that be cued a Warren Buffet take over of Burlington Northern this morning, he says this takeover says "hes all in on the American economy". uhhhh - hmmmm - you have been all in continuosly for a really long time. And to signal how embedded he is in the CNBC geshtalt he has decided to split his stock 50-1, allowing daytraders everywhere to play in Warrens world. No disrespect to Warren Buffet but for him to go "all in" on a railway at 80+ years is not market moving news from my vantage point. JNJ cutting 7k jobs....thats the news that just wont go away.
Banks in England (lloyds and RBS) getting more UK bailout money..GEs CDS (credit default swaps) widening (remember how big GE capital is) that kinda stuff that is the news Im focused on.
I exited most of my upside play in RIMM today as the stock rallied nearly $4, in other market action today preferred shares were very heavy, Metlifes preferred dropped $1.29...I dipped into that in a small way and put a hedge on in the common shares.
I bought some Ford as well today...dont color me a bull or anything - I added to my index shorts as a hedge....

JB

Torn

Im confused - I feel that we face a macro economic hell coming up but Im loving what I see out of Ford....Im not an analyst and even if I were I think getting thru their earnings report and financials would be tuff but it just seems like the company is making good progress almost every quarter.
I definitely think the companies not running to Uncle Sam for some cash resonates with people it sets them apart in a positive way, but more than that they are making products that people want and are buying as their market share numbers are showing. So I want to get long the name in a meaningful way but am afraid that if the market takes it on the chin there will be no where to hide.....buying the stock and selling Jan 7 1/2 calls covers you for a 10% drop in the stock but also caps you up 10%....although a 10% standstill return for 3 months or so aint to shabby..thats 40% annualized last time I checked. If the market gets tagged nothing will be safe...nothing - but I do like what Im hearing from Ford.
The market had a volatile session and at the end of the day the end results were pretty muted. I guess the big NEWS was the chapter 11 filing of CIT - put yourself in the shoes of the people who use CIT to fund their businesses - the sense of angst and not knowing must be awful. As an aside the treasury is gonna lose its 2.3 billion dollar tarp investment in this thing...it was so obvious back when they made the investment that the company was gonna need to file chap 11 eventually but it is this governments way to avoid taking its medicine. Oh well - whats 2.3 billion right?
Another noteworthy event today was Citigroup downgrading RIMM to the biggest 4 letter word on wall st. SELL. The stock fropped another $3 bucks or so...the stock seems washed out to me - so I bought some stragnles in there (puts and calls) but more calls than puts so I have an upside slant to it. Options seem relatively inexpensive in there considering how the stock moves.
I still am quite bearish overall as stocks like AAPL, AMZN , GOOG,BIDU still have huge room to drop, huge. AMZN is the biggest joke of em all.
Anyway sorry for the disjointed way this blog was put together.

JB