Ken Lewis - "retiring"

First they kick out Thain, then Paulson gets to leave with the Bush administration, now Lewis has stepped down, who is left? Mr. Bernanke. Blaming Thain and Lewis is so moronic, they were on an economic war ground and audibles were being called in from governmental offices on a minute by minute basis. Lehman had just failed could Merrill really be allowed to perish as well?? So they payed some bonuses and John Thain had a 30k dollar toilet on the scale of a 3 trillion dollar bailout who really cares? This is just media fodder - everybody loves a white collar criminal...
Ken Lewis, John Thain, Paulson they are all OK in my book the one I have a problem with is still in ofiice...
Intresting that the afterhours stock traders have latched on to Ken Lewis retiring as "bullish". The stock is popping a bit.
Another thing Id like to point out comes from one of my favorite websites www.zerohedge.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-cramers-recommendation-cit-yesterday-primed-upside-i-would-buy

CITs common stock is more than likely a total goose egg. If CNBC wants to reestablish credibility I know one program they should definitely axe... Firing Dennis Kneale was to easy...

JB

The Bulls threw the kitchensink today

No selloff on weak economic numbers and horrible news out of the finance world and the bulls walk away with a .33% loss in the market - simply unreal. I hate the market, I want to walk in and see the SPUZ down 100 - now that the qtr end is over PERHAPS the markets can trade w/out the invisible hand but I doubt it - now we can set our sights on the 4th qtr meltup???

Just sickening.

JB

CIT has been forgotten allready - pass the koolaid

Silly thoughts

How deep to CIT's tentacles reach? Are there CDS timebombs that are going to be triggered by default? Im sure GS and JPM are perfectly hedged - AIG your cue to wire over a few billion but alas Citi and Merrill have you been good boys and bought CDS from your CDS supermarket AIG?
Perhaps if AIG sells a billion shares at the market here they will get close to meeting their CDS exposure?? I kid I kid - it couldnt happen again right?

Young fund manager must be thinking like this - Financials Bad again - TECH safe buy em all GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, AMZN - blah blah blah.

The heat seeking algos are in a buying frenzy - SPUZ are saved by a few Russian and Chinese programming geniuses algos - its so silly allready. Buying SPUZ when they are down is like knowing you are gonna score with a hooker - done deal.

Id say the windowdressing winner of the day is OIL futures - up 3.27 a barrell - a job well done.
of course higher oil only means the dollar is getting whacked which makes the Pavlovian dogs buy everything. Higher oil as we have been schooled by the bald guy is actually bullish for us - its a GOOD sign.

People are lamenting the bears today saying oh they had em on the ropes only to see a rally sprout - well when you are Davy and you are fighting Goliath - your chances stink.

JB

Adlib

Phone rings at JPM's office - look this CIT thing was unexpected we figured the stock would keep rallying and then the company could sell 1 billion new shares at $3 and boom problem averted.
So I guess now we have to announce a second stimulus package we cant have a downday on the end of the qtr....

This is the new America, can't let CIT take thr market down , cant let a horrible ISM number take it down, cant let it go down period.

JB

Morons

I harped on CIT for a reason, its the truth that is behind the constant flow of BS that is disseminated from ticks in stocks like AIG, C, FNM, FRE etc...stocks that trade all day, premkt, regular session, late session for no reason other than that are being gamed. The "real economy" the one that is not on a constant bailout is still sick, hurting, weak whatever you want to call it.
So the morons thought they could do it again push the market higher this morning with the SPUZ up $7 - ignoring the damaging news that CIT was DOA. Momentum worshippers...all of em.
SPUZ are now down about $11 - some serious trendlines are in peril of being broken today - I hope the fund managers try to rally em later today so I can sell em some more......


JB

CIT,CIT,CIT

A few months back when CIT was on the emergency room table imagine the conversation "keep him going, the stock market is doing great, there cash flow problems will go away soon as the economy must be getting much better". Now here we are again with CIT in the emergency room still, again, who cares...yes CIT is important to small business in this country very important - but the importance of the message is that the businesses that CIT finances are obviously on the whole still under tremendous stress and are therefore unable to make interest payments to CIT...the stock market world and Main st. world are glaringly in conflict, in one world things get better seemingly by the minute (SPUZ up$4.5 and climbing as I write) and in the other things are bad and have seemingly stayed that way - if not CIT would have been able to right the ship w/out some massive debt/equity swap which for all of you darkmatter traders outthere should wipe this sucker out....be careful.
CIT's message wont be heard today just the end of month/qtr shenanigans.

JB

Come again??

So I mentioned CIT before - it rocketed higher during the regular session by 30+% - after the close the WSJ is carrying a story that the bondholders might take control of the company and take basically all of the equity. If this is true and CIT goes BK and gets reorged and the bondholders take charge, there could be further disruption to small business lending as they are one of the biggest players in that space. The stock closed at 2.2 in the regular session and dropped to 1.6 in about 5 minutes towards the end of afterhours trading.
And what do your freindly neighborhood SPUZ do? They rally a couple bucks...CIT declaring BK is another glaring example of how tough the lending world is and how much stress there is in borrower land but meanwhile the computers who see some green in the ASIAN markets just go and buy SPUZ. Its just so stupid allready, fundamental news doesnt ever move the markets lower just higher....the game has officialy been rigged and its just sickening. I guess after the fed is done unloading its risk on the public maybe then the market will be allowed to function normally again, with out cruise control programs removing all volatility from the markets. A good buddy of mine who is an ecellent futures trader told me today he hasnt really daytraded in like 2 months - nothing to do he says....Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama win - human traders have been marginalized.

JB

Booooooooooooooring

"I could stand any insurance seminar, for days, and they'd say how do you do it? and I'd say cuz Ive been with Dell Griffith" Neil Page (Planes Trains and automobiles) Thats what todays trading session was......a Dell Griffith, a grinding, drive you nuts, totally irritating kinda day.
The SPUZ were lower by about .25% or so, as if to validate yesterday's meltup on no volume. The snazdaq fared a tad worse but just a tad...
HOV vs HOVNP performed quite well today, I spent the day selling a tiny piece of my posistion in there and buying some more strangles (puts and calls) in CMG and JPM.
In darkmatterish news CIT, a troubled finance company, rallied nearaly 32%, there was some chatter that Paulson (of mortgage betting greatness) was going to arrange a merger between CIT and Indymac (how much did Indymac take the FDIC for?).
After the Close NKE is rallying a couple bucks and Darden dropping a couple bucks...
So what will tomorrow the end of the qtr and end of the month bring? Most likely nothing with odds favoring an upside bias as fund managers commit acts of rico.

Have a great night

JB

Link time

Doug Kass says it way better than I could...so http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10604588.html

The SPUZ are trading up .25 and the snazdaq down 5.5.... RIMM has been trading well all day (higher that is) GOOG, AAPL and the last of the beta giants AMZN all down.
I guess the FDIC being out of money and Iran testing missles is bearish for the nazz and a non event for the SPUZ. So the FDIC has asked for cash from the banks, three years in advance to tide em over - this is basically just another taxpayer bailout since we pay the banks the FDIC fees as customers - FOX news is gonna go crazy tonight - there will be tea partys everywhere.
Oh well - if its wasnt 56 degrees outside Id assume the Wall Streeters were all in the Hamptons....

JB

Yom Kippur is over

The market needs to be told....SPUZ are down $2.5 in very blah trade.

APO is a stock my fund is long - they got a takeover bid late friday at a price below the prevailing market price - this is a stock that is 50.58% owned by one family, they are the ones who agreed to sell at $7.75 per share, a board member resigned over this ridiculous price in advance of the announcement. The company has said that they will be looking at other bids over the next 30 days, a very important key to this puzzle is that the stock is trading above the price. If I was the controlling family I would be very unhappy that since the announcement 100k+ has traded - there is only 5.2 million outstanding - maybe someone buys some stock and then says im $10 bid only to have the $7.75 buyer say Ill pay $11. Oh well - should be fun watching this storyu unfold.

JB

New Vol play

We have had some success on 2/3 of our strangle buys of late , so Im trying a new one this morning. CMG (Chipotle), Im buying Dec 100 calls and Dec 90 puts for $9.7. We'll see how that works.
The market is giving up some of yesterdays nefarious gains, but just a tad. TECH is weak, REITs are a bit weak - I guess across the board everything is a little weaker.
Oil is weak and I think it will stay weak, I think it will trade back to below $50 in the next couple months..No other really great deep thoughts right now. Watch GOOG seems to be leading the snasdaq a bit lower.....


JB

Okedoke

So we opened with a probe higher in the SPUZ of about $7, consumer confidence report came out and apparently consumers are not feeling very confident even as the market has ripped higher by 60% in the last 6 months. The SPUZ took a breather went negative by a few bucks but alas we are back to the environment of mindless dip buying so now they have moved back into the green by a couple bucks.
Tech is a little soft, REITS a liitle soft, Darkmattter a little stronger, overall - nothing doing.
The market zoomed higher by 1.8% yesterday and today - the inclination is to buy em??? Go figure. 1.8% on an extremely light session - ok whatever.
I just want to go on the record as saying a big dollar rally has to be coming - the whole world is hosrt it and hates it - its the definition of a crowded trade.

JB

Sneaky sneaky

So you have all of the Jewish Players repenting for their sins yesterday and the computers go crazy and rally the SPUZ 1.8%.....nice real nice. I tihnk I commened the other day that yesterday would be the day to sneak em higher, 1.8% is hardly a stealth move, and then this morning they are up another $4 - as if validating yesterdays big move....uh uh. More later.

JB

Midday checkup

SPUZ are down $6.5 bucks, the snazdaq is faring a little worse as RIMM puts the hurt on, I have hedged up my strangle in there - that was a nice trade - not a huge homerun b/c premiums in RIMM were not cheap but still a nice winner.
GS is getting beat up on today, I topticked it the other day with my napkin calculation of Buffets profits in there - sorry Warren. Oy look at Moodys (another Buffet name - gonna have to take up a collection for him) - down another 5% or so - Im afraid to say anything bad incase the wrong people read this.
These secondary offferings and IPOs were just to much for the market to bare - to much supply - the banks had to know that eventually selling would commence. Everybody know is so conditioned for the snapback reflex rallys that if they stop coming things are gonna get ugly fast - man am I a broken record.
On another subject , the Cubs have played good baseball for the last 3-4 weeks just a little to late for it to matter. Im ecouraged by some of these minor leaguers who have been playing for them - this Colvin kid ( i can say that now, IM closer to 40 than 30) has looked great defensively. Jeff Baker has looked good and so has Jake Fox as Im used to saying "wait till next year".

JB

Bulls say "dont bother me with facts"

The economic recovery has been the thesis behind the massive rally over the last 4-6 weeks, today we get a durable goods number which says uh uh - not gonna happen , and the bulls say "dont bother me with the facts". If I was gonna boost the market for BS reasons I would do it on Yom Kippur when there are less players around and easier to get the desired results.
AAPL and PALM are looking rosy compared to RIMM. Both are up slightly versus a battered RIMM, which is dropping 15%. RIMMs slowdown makes sense when you think about it, the IPHONE has the AAPL halo and while some business people use it, it is more an AAPL generation thing, RIMM is primarily still a business tool, as layoffs continue I would imagine less BBERRYS get sold. I am a BBERRY user and I absolutely love the thing, great product too big of a stock price.
As I write the gains in the market have been erased, 1036 is suport on the SPUZ per my partner...

JB

Durable Goods craps the bed

The SPU buyers were ready to buy em this morning, two days down are you kidding me....but then the durable goods order comes in and it is WAY worse than expected. SPUZ reverse gains and are lower on the morning...Paging Mr. Bernanke - I thought the recession was over??
RIMM is down 11.5 this morning - ouch beta players...AIG is a bit lower this morning.
Im out monday which fills with me some anxiety, Ill be atoning for my numerous sins that i have accumulated throughout the year...something I should definitely give some thought to.

We got one secondary this morning, BUSE, stock priced at $4.

JB

RIMM in downside motion

One of the kings of beta a zen master has stubbed its toe this evening, dropping 10% after hours...Im long puts and calls in there so Im buying some stock at the $75 level, I guess the revenue guidance was a little light for the next qtr...this is the big recovery qtr I thought....the bald guy had been even on his $85 dollar strong buy from months ago for a few days this week - hope he sold....
Overall the market closed near its lows with an assist by RIMMs punk numbers after the close which sank the futures. I did some covering today but I still am short biased, I am long a fair amount of gamma, so I have the luxury today to buy things and I hope when they rip higher in a few days that I have bought plenty of deltunas against my long gamma...
So now we have had two down days in a row - I thought Id never see that again. When a big market name like RIMM gets beat up thats not a good thing for the psyche...Im sure the street will say this is an isolated event specific to RIMM, "channel checks at AAPl are uber strong..any weakness due to RIMM is a buying opportunity - any analyst CFA....".
Two days dont make a sea change but if the dip buyers get burned a few times - the sea will turn stromy...

Have a good night

JB

Been busy

The markets had early strength which vanished liked a fart in the wind (thank you Stephen King for that one). I trimmed lots of positions this AM, I didnt want to but this action puts me even for the month and I want to make my investors and myself money. Im still short, but less short.
APO says they have signed an non binding agreement to sell the company http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065645/000106564509000049/form8k_09242009.htm, stock yawns. My guess is if a deal happens it will be between 11 and 13 bucks a share....
Back to the market - lots of people are assuming that the end to the qtr will be strong, its a valid assumption fund managers will defend their positions, but if that consensus gets to strong this puppy could keep dropping...remember how September was supposed to be an awful month??
Beware - I think it is time to be long gamma, puts and calls...the gains are enormous, we'll see if the instinct to lock those gains in takes hold in a forceful way....

JB

What me worry?

The SPUZ traded down 6 or so last night and this morning are up 4, the pattern continues...yesterdays reversal has been washed away, by an initial jobless claims number that beat expectations, 530k - break out the bubbly. The snazdaq is ramping early as the 20k less people that filed for benefits are certainly on line at some cell phone dealer buying an iphone, blackberry, or pre - maybe after that they will go buy a PC, and after that maybe, just maybe they will get to paying their mortgages, cuz the banks can wait right - they have our money anyways (taxpayer).
So anyways - the bull market had a slight pause yesterday afternoon and the bull continues this AM - will it last? Well that will be determined.

JB

I should be sawing wood

11:07 PM central time, I should be sleeping but Im having a marathon web surfing night, got all 4 kids down (ok the older 2 dont require that much) and watched some baseball and then looked up ski trips, preferred securities, ski trips, read my favorite market commentator, Todd Harrison (only Doug Kass comes close, Todds humility and understanding of what Im up against everyday makes him my fave), and looked at ski trips again. Its snowing in Vail....heres the plan make some money, take off my positions and go skiing, get lost (not really) in the back bowls, enjoy the sun, rejuvinate, come back to work make some more money and then go back to Vail and do it again - Im sure the markets and my wife will be coopeartive in providing the money and the trip approval.
I had a moment today when I felt like I was back in the trading pits, a broker called up said he was putting up a block of stock, 500k shares, at a steep discount to market due to liquidity, in a name I knew, I wanted to say BUY EM, meaning buy all the shares, but I run a small fund and capital is tight. So I bought 50k shares, and sold em out for a $.22 cent profit over the course of the next few hours..If I could do that everyday (Id be GS)....
The SPUZ are trading down 3.5 bucks tonight, I would guess Asia is weaker?? Who cares - my mind is beyond exhausted, this month has been a battle so far, a tuff one...
Secondary score board in the morning....

Gnight

JB

A bone for the shorts

An impressive last hour reversal today....the bald guy will probably be advocating to buy this dip aggressively...and he'll probably be right. The stock issuance continues at a rapid pace tonight...more deals more deals, we are in for some. Two more calls since I started writing...
REITS are selling boatloads tonight...boatloads, ARE, PPS, GET...the list goes on.
Tomorrow night the monster beta name, RIMM reports numbers, expectations are high, Im positioned in there for a big move one way or the other, kinda like I was in PALM, which I got.
That should be an important market moving event I would think.
Lets just go to fantasy land for a second and say that todays high in the market was THE HIGH of the move...that would mean that the first pullback should take the market to S&P 955 (im using some goofy numbers called fibanoccis - which I dont really believe in) if that could happen in an overnight move...this kid, your author would dance a jig...We'll see what happens.

JB

If technicals matter

AZO should plummet, game over, buh bye - but we all know charts only work to the upside in the Obama utopia.

JB

No selloffs

TECH is en fuego today, AAPL up 3.3, RIMM up 2.34, etc etc etc
GS up gain. One bright spot today im long puts in AZO its down $9.71 - yipeeeeeeeeeeeeee.


JB

SPUZ

They sold off 2 points at one point this morning and that was it for weakness...., the nasdaq is the stud today with AAPL, PALM , RIMM flying higher - again and why not? I hear there are these things called smartphones coming out.....
I calculated yesterday that Buffet is up about 4.5 billion dollars on his 5 billion dollar investment in GS - nice work if you can get it.
We made money on 4/5 of the offerings from last night - the allocations were rather small as everybody is playing these. there are a ton more this week....

JB

Mornin

Markets up

JB

Couldnt happen to a nicer bunch of people

Heres a good one
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Shiite-financier-investments-apf-544987198.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

JB

2 more deals since I wrote

EOM

JB

I had been doing great

Clawing back for the month , working back towards even but todays movement knocked me back a bit...HOVNP has done well but not nearly as well as the rest of the junk credit world...if it had it would be trading 8, 9 bucks instead of 5.5. On days like today i need my horses to work for me, the company is retiring more debt and the market yawns...AMR is offering converts tonight and they are bid up 8 points in grey market....8 points for a junky airline....and I cant get a few bucks on my housing name that is retiring debt WTF???
The return from the bottom, which is now being constantly discounted as an abberation, is 60%.
We are a country of fools, collectively, rash, stupid, shortsighted and now we are inflating a new equity and credit bubble with debt and equity offerings flying off the shelf at a rate last seen during the internet boom. Who trades like this who buys the market everyday? It can only be the fed, attempting to alter reality or the assholes with their computer algos hunting for fleeting alpha. If this keeps up it wont be long till the bald commentator is the fed chariman...why not? He is the only guy who everyday sasy buy em, i love em ,stocks are cheap etc....
Im in for a bunch of secondary offerings tonight, watch the crash ensue just as I get long some names in these silly offerings, I have hedges in place but those are always a waste of money...I think when this pathalogical equity buying stops the SPUZ are going to drop 100 bucks in a day, and then they wont rally.

JB

Market being supported by unnatural forces

AIG the manic master of all things beta has reversed course and is now lower in the day....the SPUZ are a pillar of strength aint nothin gonna knock this market down, how that is possible at this point I dont know - people are much more on a hairtrigger to buy ANY AND ALL WEAKNESS, then they are to sell strength. GREED is back in a huge way.

Enjoy the last 45 minutes of one computer racing another to buy SPUZ - this is CRAZY

JB

DOW 10000

I guess its a forgone conclusion - when was the last time you heard the word valuation mentioned, you have the talking heads talking about the strong technicals...how bout - we have not been this overbought since 1932.
HOVNP should be trading about 8.5 bucks in this environment but "smart guys" like me are long it so it cant rally...only shit can rally, AIG (AIG is rallying b/c the governemt realized they might not ever be able to pay them back so they are considering reducing the interest rate on the preferred??????), C, FNM, FRE. Bank lending is contracting at an alarming rate, we are going to have a nuclear Iran, we have an ENORMOUS deficit, we have companies treating the stock marlet like an ATM machine, and people (or maybe computer algos) can only think to buy the market.....I feel a little incoherent right about now.

JB

Warning signal

The offerings are coming at a pace I have never seen, I might have to get a bigger phone package for the amount of calls Im getting this morning. Its out of control, how the market continues to go higher in the face of this is truly astounding. Where is all of the cash gonna come from? This is like outbidding yourself...but you see this works to the banks advantage they make players feel like they have to participate in these deals...and they make ENORMOUS fees on the selling of these deals. Im in for a bunch of the deals, but Im buying additional put protection as I think this party is going to end badly - how long can this keep up?

JB

breaking news

markets up .5% no news here.


JB

Cue the gap open

The powers that be are cuing the breathless up 8 point pre market action in the SPUZ, gotta have gotta have em. AIG is leaping by 4 bucks or so in the early,early goings - just wait till Etrade and Scwhab open up there pipes in 6 minutes.....
I guess overnight the dollar is being monkeyhammered again - why not? This reflexive buying of everything when the dollar declines seems insane to me and a scary pattern.
So the SPUZ are holding in around 1067 - I believe we get an earnings report from one of the beta kings - RIMM, in the next few days. I have prepared the markets repsonse in advance, here are your scenarios
1)If numbers are good - nasdaq will trade up 2%, Wall St. will pen a report about how the unemployed are using smart phones to console themselves and make themselves feel as if they are still in the game
2)If numbers are bad - nasdaq will rally 1.5%, Wall St. will say that AAPl and PALM are taking market share from RIMM and PALM will gun to new highs on the heels of its 16 million share equity offering

Have a great day

JB

Can you say secondary?

I cant even keep track....they are everywhere, AMR, EPD, FSC, PALM, LINC and like 5 others..

One thing is for certain people did not sell stocks to buy these offerings.... what a market!!
A good piece of news hit one of my positions after the close, HOV is tendering for more of it's debt, the more they retire the better off my HOVNP is, it is a debt obligation afterall.

As far as the markets go, the S&P was down a whopping .34%, the bulls must be feeling bullet proof and I guess they should. REITS were weak today, tech was a mixed bag, darkmatter was thru the roof, powered primarily by AIG which was $8.49 in massive trading.
I cant make any sense of all this action, but I still feel like something big is afoot.

Have a good night

JB

Something wicked this way comes

I have a huge pit in my stomach, something bad is coming, Im not sure if its in the markets or elsewhere in my life but something wicked this way comes. Hopefully that feeling will be as accurate as my market calls or else it could get ugly.
AIG is screaming higher by 15% this afternoon, GOOG is higher by $4.5 bucks, AAPL and REITS are weaker. I have sold all of the MPGpA that Im gonna sell and now I keep the remainder hoping for par ($25), that his been the best trade of my year thus far. Numerous deals pricing this week , we are in for some which makes me a bit nervous....
It makes me sick that the Iranian president gets to speak in the US, a country he refers to as the great satan, this week. As a Jew I understand being disliked it goes with the territory, he is going to build a nuclear bomb and I believe he will use it. The world wont care much, and the Iranian mullahs wont give a ratsass about the Palestinians that will die in a nuclear bombing, remember that Israel is a tiny place and you cant get rid of the Jews without getting rid of the Arabs there too.
Thats why the Palestinians are just pawns in this whole thing, the endgame for the Mullahs and Al Qaeda is to rid the world of Jews, and once the Jews are gone they will start on the Christians.
Scares the crap out of me as I have relatives and friends who live in Israel, and a natural bond as a Jew. Oh well, I hate politics but this is a survival issue. I only pray the opposition in Iran overthrows these psychotic nuts who run the show.

JB

Sleeper hold...again

We open down, rally all the way back and then sit and wait for the 230 PM ramp.....
Nothing else to say


JB

Uninspiring

So this is the big selloff? SPUZ down $5?? Does not inspire me. AAPL's drop of 2.34 is being negated by GOOGs continued ramp. Darkmatter stocks, AIG, C, are ripping higher, the bulls are still very much alive and wanting to flip this market to higher levels. There are numerous new issues and secondary offerings that need to be priced this week , I would assume that the powers that be will try to keep the market stable for these offerings, how they will do it Im just not sure. Most people I speak to and thats in and outside of the trading world still are feeling very stressed and worried about the economic landscape. At this point the "non traders" discount the activity on wall street as just mindless gambling by a few crazies on Wall and Broad, that is totally disconnected from the realities of Main St. USA - they may have a point there.
The market while slightly lower is well bid beneath the surface, Im surprised that AAPL's weakness is not dragging downthe Nasdaq more..Live and learn.

JB

Mornin

The markets are taking a little dip this morning, SPUZ are down about .55% or so and commodities are weak across the board. POT warned about weak earnings late friday, stock is getting hit to the tune of about 5%. The marke in general is massively overbought, with all kinds of records being set as far as puts vs calls trading, in other words people are positioned for even further gains in the market. I saw something in the weekend WSJ about Jim Grant being bullish??? Did I read that right? I need to reread it. Jim Grant is a brilliant guy and often I find him hard to understand b/c he is on a higher intellectual plane than me but if he's bullish Im gonna be even more bearish (in the short term that is).

More later

JB

Sleeper hold is in place

AAPL to the strike, nirvana baby.

Happy new Year

JB

AAPL and GOOG

Pillars of strength if it were not for them the SPUZ buyers might actually have to sell a few....
They could be the last legs of this thing....if they break, market breaks end of story. Everything is so over extended, there should be a warning similar to the viagra commercials "if you have an erection for longer than 4 hours seek medical treatment immediately" if AAPL tacks on 11 billion in market cap in 72 hours seek puts immediately.
Anyway, MPGpA has broken to new highs, and HOV vs HOVNP is trading nicely.
The bulls should be able to administer the sleeper hold today as the Jewish New Year is upon us and many market participants will leave early and go home to there families and friends and wish each other health and happiness and all that stuff and hopefully mean it.
the new year reminds me that I have things I need to work on and am afraid I always will, I need to work harder on listening to the people that matter most to me, life is tricky, you get married have wonderful kids and then you have to wage this never ending war to provide for them and its not easy, sometimes it seems impossible, and you lose focus, you think you are focused on them (and to a degree you are) but you need to focus on not just doing things for them but really being there when you are with them and being the Dad and husband you need to be.

Anyways to those of you who are celebrating, a happy and peaceful new year.

JB

Here we go

Last night the SPUZ traded down about 7 bucks and I wake up to find em up 3 - buy those dips kiddies. I would like to console myself and say its expiration related but who the hell knows whats going on anymore. I had a good day yesterday due to a sweet performance by HOVNP vs HOV.
It appears that AAPL is going to be pinned to the 185 strike. The dollar is moderately stronger this morning - crowded trade there on the short side ???????? Due to that oil is backing up a tad, the treausry bond market has been uber strong lately which makes me wonder about commodity strength? I cant even remember what makes me wonder about what anymore....

Have a good one

JB

Momentum is fighting

Momentum buyers are fighting a fight today, AAPL and GOOG remain the only highflyers that I can see still in the black. Some sellers are popping up. If and this is a HUGE if AAPL breaks down I would say you could see a nice downday, otherwise we will probably just flop around.
Stocks that have been leaping, AXL, GE, CHK are seeing some profittaking today, the gains are enormous so at some point an instinct to protect those gains might kick in. Remember psychology is the key, fundamentals are noise - 550k more jobless claims this AM - does that sound like a recession being over? I see real sellers in some stocks, guys who wait for the little pop in the SPUZ and just stay on the offer in the stocks.
Oh well why at this point anyone would listen to me is a good question


JB

New name on the endangered species list

BEAR

Over the past nine days bears have been disappearing from the landscape at a rate never been seen before. There are reportedly none left in California, one hiding in the caverns of Wall and Broad, and one cowering in Northbrook Il. The hunters who have slaughtered nearly the entire population of bears are identified as Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, and Tim Geithner, now its not very often that you find a black hunter, a jewish hunter, and an Irish hunter working in tandem but it is what it is.
In all seriousness the bears have been decimated and show no signs of exerting control any time soon. AAPL has gone parabolic, as have REITS and basically just about everything.
WE have been shown 12 equity offerings today and its only 10:15 am.

JB

Mornin

The flicks and ticks (I use that term with all respect to Todd Harrison) are showing stocks just slightly weaker this morning. Jobless claims were essentially right in line 550k or so, housing starts were as expected. Oracle missed its revenue numbers slightly last night, use that as a slight negative, on the positive side stocks are getting upgraded all over the street with ever higher target prices. Calsl traded 2 to 1 vs puts yesterday - mark that as a negative. the secondary calendar is hopping we have participated in 3 or 4 this weeks and waiting to hear on about 3 this morning. I think GS and MS have 3 IPOs on monday.. Lots of activity.
Probably went to my last Cub game of the season last night, that stinks for a few reasons, one while the Cubs are not mathematically eliminated they are basically done, two it means warm weather is on its way out, three a whole summer went by and my wife didn't come to one game with me. As we say in Cubville "wait till next year".

JB

Just my luck

Im long a stock APO, that discloses in an 8K monday that it is in sale negotiations with an exclusive buyer and the stock rallys a whole .50 cents - I wish I could figure that one out. We have a market on total fire and I have a stock "in play" and it tacks on just .50 cents. Gee thanks - how bout 3 or 4 bucks like every other real estate play? What a load of crap.
I cant put into words how Im feeling right now but Ill try, stupid, low, angry, hurt, bruised (thats a good one). People are literally now falling over themselves to buy names like AAPL, SPG,GOOG etc...and I cant for the life of me understand why. The higher they go the more they wanna buy...gee its a good thing Wall St. is acting "responsibly". How is it that on a day where the recession has been declared dead that FORD, the only publicly traded American car company, is down on the day, how is that? How is that AAPL has tacked on almost 7 billion in market cap today cuz some analyst who loves the playlist on his ipod said buy some more? How are Wells fargor preferreds back to par? Is the system that healthy now? I obviuosly have been looking for a selloff for quite some time - and have looked foolish for some time but dont any of these upmoves start to look like blowoffs? Here I am going into my new years holiday this weekend and I feel awful, worried. Most people are worried - you who is not worried? The guys who know exaclty where the SPUZ are going to close everynight...the JPMs and GSs of the world. I am more convinced than ever that the market is being moved by a hand that is less than natural. You cant tell me that people who were standing in line to take their money out of banks 6 months ago are now piling into stocks EVERY SINGLE MINUTE OF EVERY SINGLE DAY.

oh well Ill stop now and go back to feeling brusied - SPUZ up 17 - figure they close up 25 today?

JB

I should have been a Dr.

EOM

JB

Puts Im buying right now

LVS,RDN,NDX,

JB

Terror

No one is shorting, people are terrified.

JB

Hello

SPUZ up .5% pre market, only difference today is that they were up all night, why waste time.



JB

Im hoping this is the top tick

Treasury Gives You the Go-Ahead on Real Estate

By Jim Cramer

About this article:
Go buy the IYR, the iShares Real Estate ETF. Go buy it because Tim Geithner, the Treasury secretary, just slapped a super-de-duper buy rating on it. Well, not actually, but he might have done so in not so many words.

Just as a reference point IYR is around 43.75

JB

Ease on down the road

the SPUZ continue the ascent at midday, gunning for the ever closer 1050 level - why 1050 is more important than 1047 Ill never know, technical analysis is silliness. I would give a rundown of whats strong but whats the point everything is. the secondary offerings are flying off the shelves, the bigger the better. Good thing the president is going to make sure Wall St. does not make the same mistakes, like blowing up a credit bubble, no worries this time its an equity bubble. SPG has rallied 180% from the lows, all the while being a reit that is paying it's dividend in stock. This is a company that operates large malls, any chance this is getting a bit overdone?? The momentum is unreal. Is there any chance that large funds are colluding? Couple that with stock borrow becoming harder by the minute and you have the rally that never ceases, not even for 10 minutes unless its overnight?
I keep thinking bulls make money bears make money pigs get slaughtered - the bald guy said "its different this time" I guess it really is.

JB

Forgot the market was open

We opened up a few bucks sold off a few bucks and are now dead even. Animal spirits are off the charts - little stocks are exploding higher, casinos continue to ramp, AAPL is back to its winning ways, the market is not even fazed by the government saying they want out of Citi.
Oh well...the party continues. What has dropped out of the discussion is the fact that the market has rallied almost 6% from the thursday afternoon before labor day - with no clear catalyst. People are to busy filling up their cups to think about whats happening. Feels like 1999. Just buying stiff cuz its going higher. MPGpA is moving a bit higher today so thats a positive but my shorts are way bigger than my longs. My risk remains contained and controllable no crazy bets, just looking for what I feel could be a selloff of enormous size.

JB

Mornin

Same pattern as yesterday, futures down all night only to find them up a few bucks as we grab a cup o joe. Retail sales were apparently pretty good (im to tired to think of a good way to knock this data). Bonds are getting whacked this morning for a point, Oil is a tad higher, keep an eye on GNW, company has announced a 500 million dollar offering and the stock is gapping higher, Im long gamma in this name and will look to short some stock today (patience young jedi) as my deltas direct. CHK has been on a moonshot lately, Im going to look to buy more gamma in there. Casino stocks have been roaring lately, these could be long premium candidates.
Trading is a humbling game, some days you feel like superman and somedays you feel like Lex luthor, "foiled again". And its one of those things where effort does not matter, you get graded by one thing only $$$.
We'll see what the BULL market of 2009 brings today.

JB

Obama talks about responsibility

Yet he lets these bastards on wall street keep their tarp money, jack up credit card rates, gun the market every second of every day (literally) and basically rape and pillage. So to be honest with you his definition of responsibility must be quite different than mine. I would imagine in his next campaign the donations from the street will be enormous, he's done more for these guys than any republican ever has. What a fraud.
After the close GNW announces a major offering of stock, $500 million - seeing that my life insurance is thru them Im happy , cuz Im certainly worth more dead than alive these days (hope the wife is not reading). The market will lap this up and the bulls with pat themselves on the back and upward and onward we go.
Im sick, Im tired, Im having a rotten month and I need a break again.

JB

Ouch

This is killing me

JB

the war on traders continues

Team Obama's war on traders and natural market volatility continues today. My brain cannot compute another day where longs have no risk, a decent selloff overnight is met with the knowing wink of the permabid spu buyers. Cmon buy em everybodys doing it.
REITS have reversed their losses, TECH is a flat line, AIG screaming higher. Casino stocks are en fuego with WYNN up 3.2%.
I sold out the nasdaq minis I bought on last nights weakness, call me crazy.
This market trades in such unnatural patterns, it is impossible to get a feel for the markets these days. I suppose that is the continued impact of all of these black box trading systems.

I have nothing of value to ad right now.

JB

Ridiculous

SPUZ trade down 10 bucks for hours last night, and now here they sit down 1.75. We have the makings of a little trade rift with the largest holder of our debt (China) and the ALGOs can find nothing better to do than buy SPUZ. If a few days ago you had said to a bull are there anythings that could derail your bullish outlook what would it be? Do you think he might respond "well if we had trade issues with China that would not be good" The Bulls have this game nailed, nothing is negative, all is good. As I write the SPUZ have just turned positive - simply unreal.
I feel like a moron, I was counting my money last night.

JB

That didnt take long

The dipbuyers didnt wait five minutes to start deploying their antsy capital into which was a very scary opening down a whopping .5%....
The confidence to buy the dip was impressive. All sectors are moderately lower this morning.
Nothing to report - nothing.


JB

Houston we (may) have a problem

The SPUZ are trading down $10.5 right now, I guess the culprit is a weak Nikkei which is dropping to the tune of 2.2%. Im buying some nasdaq futures to delta hedge my NDX puts - I guess down here I need to buy like 40 futures but Ive only bought 10 so far. A 2.2% move in the Nasdaq wouuld drop the futures by 35 points - not the 14 they are down right now. I will nibble and have bids in overnight. In the morning the permabidders will be lurking again - so I have to buy some here.

JB

Summer lovin, lovin Summer

What a gorgeous sunday - to bad these kind of days are numbered. 2/4 played soccer today - first games of the season - they both did pretty well.
Time to check in on the SPUZ as the casino reopens. They open down $2 bucks. Hard to read into a $2 move but there were more troubling signs out of Iran this weekend, there was a very large protest against Pres. Obama in Washington and oh yeah they are waaaaaaaay overbought.
There was also a massive bank failure in Chicago (a long time coming by the way), CORUS bank which was the posterchild of a lender that had condo conversion exposure in all the wrong places.
This was a biggy, the deposits and branches have been parsed off to MB Financial, another Chicago bank, the assets are going to be auctioned off at a "later date". Good luck selling a 20% complete S. Florida condo conversion these days, if they do sell (presumably for 10 cents on the dollar) the market gets further depressed - the buyer finishes the condos and is able to then offer the same thing that some guy down the street is offering for 1/2 the price...NOT GOOD.
Anyway, the bulls are feeling pretty bullet proof and the bears are full of self doubt and loathing.
Should be an interesting weak, but might get slow friday as the Jewish New Year is upon us.
More in the AM.

JB

Sleeperhold friday

zero, nada, zilch - what can you say about this market other than that its baffling.
Maybe next week the office of central planning will allow for some profit taking.

Have a great weekend

JB

An hour to go

The SPUZ traded down 4 bucks and the plunge protection team quickly booted up their PCs and bought the required amount of SPUZ to get the shorts to cover and to bring in more "underinvested bulls". Reports have it that Art Cashin an old timer from UBS securities was saying that this markets action reminds him very much of the summer of 1987, we all know what happened that fall. Art Cashin's comments can be summarily discredited b/c he doesnt know how to program an algorithm or enter high frequency orders, he might even be arrested for polluting the airwaves with negative thoughts - he made his comments and the bald commentator on CNBC (think rolled up sleeves) shouted "you lie" (I kid, I kid).
REITS are still a bit weak, Tech slightly heavy, but FDX carries the day for the SPUZ. I actually was at a fedex store today to send my nephews baseball hat back to him and the clerk who helped me seemed uneffected by the fact that the 66 shares of stock in his ESOP plan were up $4. Party pooper. Oh well nothing of real value to offer ya, Im doing a convertible arb in MMR - one nice thing about a runaway bull market is that it makes getting shorts off pretty easy - now you can never say I dont have anything good to say about strong tapes. One last thing today I bought a Jan strangle (calls and puts) in AAPL - vol seems cheap.


JB

I smell a rat

The SPUZ have reversed course and are flat on the day, trust me im as surprised as you are. I made a few good trades out of the shoot this morning.
A couple stats that I read over at www.Minyanville.com
85% of portfolio managers are bullish on tech.
GS is reporting that hedge funds have increased net long exposure to pre lehman levels. (They didnt survey this hedgefund.)
Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Where do we go from here - I have to assume back up - as much as the market is overbought, people in general stick with what works.
There is one divergence Id like to report on today, oil is getting smoked even with a weaker dollar - call the cops, the algos are taking a break. If oil can diverge stocks can too - right?
Tbonds continue their move higher, so we have lower oil, lower gov bond yields, and basically flat stocks - one of these things is not like the other.
I believe AAPL and GS hold the keys to the markets driection right now. GS gapped higher as did AAPL, GS is now up fractionally and AAPL is down small. Stay tuned.

JB

Heres an idea

GM is offering a fantastic new program, if you are not completely satisfied with your GM product within 60 days and the car has less than 4k Miles on it you can return it, no questions asked. So heres the plan, buy a Corvette z06, manual transmission, fly yellow, and set out on a roadtrip to Cali and back. Every red light will be a pedal to the metal pop the clutch scenario with traction control off. As you buy the car, with zero percent financing of course, you take your availbale cash and buy SPUZ (another government sponsored program). In 60 days of pure driving excitement, the car will cost you gas and insurance, but if you invest 100k in SPUZ which make roughly 1% a day you will come out a huge winner and get to see a large swath of the country while driving on pristine roads that have just been repaved thanks to the stimulus plan. After the trip you walk into your GM dealership which while you were gone might have begun sharing space with an unemplyment insurance office and say "I was looking for a bit more horsepower".

JB

A real bender

This market is like an alcoholic who starts drinking Friday morning and just keeps going all weekend, The Bulls are at the bar again serving themselves up some more gains. The bears of which I am one are being used as the dishtowels to keep the bar clean.
TECH is weak this AM, the REIT revival continues apace and darkmatter is a nonfactor (for now).
Treasuries are rallying again - strange very strange.

More later when they are up 8

JB

FEDEX raises guidance

SPUZ up 4

JB

Sep 11th 2001

This is my generations moment - do you know where you were? I was on the trading floor of Stafford Trading in the Federal Reserve Bank Building, watching Nokia trade premarket - it had a bad quarter or something like that. The guys behind me were on a morning call with Cantor Fitzgerald. CNBC was on and news broke in that it seemed that there was some kind of explosion in the World Trade Center. The market started to drop fast - at that moment thats what I was consumed by I didnt know that the explosion was caused by an airplane that had been hijacked by Islamic terrorists. The guys behind me lost there call to Cantor , they kept trying to call back and got nothing but busy signals, I dont remember the sequence of events exactly, but I do remember Mr. Stafford telling everybody to go home. I grabbed my stuff and walked out onto Lasalle st. with a cautious eye on the CBOT which was looming large across the street. I made a right turn on Jackson and walked towards the Metra Station, traders were streaming out of the CBOT and CBOE and everyone was walking in a hushed quick fashion, like you did when you were a kid in school during a fire drill. As I walked past the Sears tower like I had thousands of times before my eyes were looking towards the sky - everyone was looking up - everyone. As I started to walk into the metra station I got scared it was so packed, everyone trying to get to trains, it gave me a bad feeling, so I darted out of there and headed to my brother in laws office a couple of blocks away. By the time I got there the pentagon had been hit and both towers were on fire, there was talk of another plane headed for the Whitehouse. Aron's office has a window thru which we could keep an eye on the sears tower, so we sat there for a while watching the TV with one eye and keeping an eye on the sears tower with the other. After watching the towers evaporate, I walked to the metra station and went home.
What a horrible day, I have no intention of tying this to the markets, Im just remembering what the TERRORISTS did to us that day. I still find myself sad around 9/11, I think about the kids,wives, husbands, grandparents, friends and those two towers. People and things that will never be seen again. I hope the perpetrators are burning eternally - they took so much with them.
On 9/11 I will be remembering and sending my prayers to the families that are still undoubtedly
grieving.

JB

Just a thought

The SPUZ are down .25 cents right now - why not buy em right now b/c honestly is there any chance they wont be up in the morning? 5% since thursday at 2:30 pm. I guess team Obama is going to force people who use the public option for healthcare to invest their monthly premiums directly in the S&P.
Screw them, Screw GS, Screw CNBC, Screw em all. If this keeps up people might forget that this country is totally fucked in the long term.

JB

same as yesterday

Bulls win again, yada yada yada
Cya tomorrow when they do it again.

JB

a useless observation

after hours yesterday Texas Instruments came out and raised guidance for the next qtr or something like that - so todays ramp began on that news nugget as the nasdaq futures traded higher on that news. TXN is down today - so todays ramp is a beast whose origin is anyone anyone?? I guess Google - which is clocking in up 1.3%. What will be the catalyst for them to trade up in tonights afterhours session? Dont worry there will be one.

JB

Office of central planning

Geithner, Bernanke, Obama all of em are sitting around in amazement as the SPUZ eclipse the 8 point allowance for the day, with a +10 point performance thus far. Pain, Pain, Pain thats my world right now. The embracing of all things risky continues unabated. Every asset is up today expect for one - u guessed it the $. I would imagine over at CNBC they are beginning to design the Dow 10k logos again. NATGAS vs CRUDE a BIG winner today - but thats the only one. My shipper refuses to budge. My return for the month turned negative yesterday and today is making that loss a bit worse. I dont know how to interpret a market that ignores any of the real systemic issues we face as a country and latches on to momentum as an investment strategy. Buy em cuz they are going up thats whats going on here.

JB

Midday checkup

The market is 65% of the way to the state regulated 8 bucks a day higher in the SPUZ. I dont know what else there is to say. Of note today is that the treasury mkt is up almost 2 points, Im not sure but usually when stocks are soaring people dont plow into treasuries in that fashion. Perhaps Helicopter Ben is sitting infront of a CME terminal buying bonds to lower mortgage rates???Why not? What do you throw after the kitchen sink has been removed fromthe wall? ? This upmove is really starting to hurt.
Im in for 4 secondary offerings tonight and have passed on three. Im going to lunch - to bad its not passover or Id eat some matzah - poor mans bread.

JB

AAPL fading

SPUZ to follow??

ME THINKS SO

JB

Buyable dip

SPUZ were down 3.5 for a millisecond - that was your chance - Have a great day - cya when they are up 8 in about 2 hours.

JB

Excellent news

550k initial jobless claims, outstanding, superb, excellent, what else can I say about that number. But what really makes it great is that wall street expected 560k initial jobless claims so now the permabid spu buyers have another reason to turn on their algos that rally SPUZ all day. Its so simple.
Im clearly on the wrong side of this tape and that sucks. I have salestraders calling me telling me to pile into life insurers - ok - lifeinsurers benefit more than just about anyone from rising stocks. Does not exaclty fit my thesis.


JB

24/7 Squeeze

Pres Obamas speech was enough to start tomorrows ramp today. The SPUZ immediately jumped a couple bucks as the world wide equity orgy continues with Asian markets hotter than wonton soup. Would perhaps the looming anniversary of 9/11 give equity buyers pause? Would anything make people think sheesh I have mad a lot of money in the last 6 months , maybe I should stop listening to that bald commentator on CNBC who STILL hasnt broken even on his RIMM call at $85, and realize that I am being pulled into the biggest suckers rally of all time. How will Obama and Co. look if this market falls apart? The way its being inflated the ire of the public this time around when it falls apart will be phenomenal - it is time to put an end to the funny money demand Tarp repayment, raise the fed funds rate and stop encouraging and abbetting never ending 24/7 rampant equity speculation. In every other serious decline in the market PEs got down to under 10x. We are now in the mid to high teens, with a minisucle dividend yield. Dont believe for one minute that stocks are cheap. If your neighbor had a semicoundoctor business that was making $1000 dollars a year would you pay him $17,000 for it? I doubt it. Jesus , just take a break on the equity orgy - let the shorts win for more than 6 hours.

JB

The bulls pull it out

Plunge protection team does it again. Yada yada yada - everythings great.


JB

an hour to go

SPUZ are up $2.75 showing some weakness, this bear aint getting excited (yet). A rescue by the plunge protection team is fully expected. I dont want it to happen I want to see a bludgeoning a smackdown, a trouncing but the bulls are to good.
AAPL is in this guys opinion the reason the market is selling off, its down $2 bucks after some AAPL lovefest failed to give the bulls reasons to continue gunning the stock.
Im out of my FSLR puts - feeling lucky to have made any shekels on a downside play.


JB

Checking with my data provider

My quotes show the SPUZ up $4 right now - I put in a call to the data provider to make sure this is accurate b/c this isnt on the script. We'll see what they say?

JB

Next squeeze event

The fed beige book is coming out today , this should be the next release that gives the SPUZ its next $5 buck ramp. Momentum is all that matters in this market. The REITS are crusing higher, AAPL is close to its $2 bucks a day, DARKMATTER is being led higher by Mr. Manic, AIG. Im uber frustrated and feeling pretty nervous.
The other morning I bought calls in FSLR and sold em out the next day - way to early, the stock has moved $25 higher since then, I bought some puts in there this morning - I know Im silly still looking for downside.
I count about 7 secondary offerings for tonight and tomorrow - I assume more will be announced tonight.
Steve Jobs is being qouted about a bunch of things on the news wires as I type. AAPL apparently has created an IPHONE app that cures obesity (i kid, i kid).
I have listened to the same song by the band Train about 20 times today, Soulsister - its a good one.

JB

Aint no mountain high enough

THE SPUZ are climbing, they have their sights set high, up .5 % to start another day of all day buying and then sitting for four hours with a little buying finale - and then we will repeat tomorrow.
I cant play this game. You see my brain is actually affected by all of those friday bank closures every week, the fact that there are 400 banks on the FDIC watch list, the fact that the FED is carrying some Bear Stearns positions on their books at 50 cents on the dollar and that Citi is carrying the exact same positions at .95 cents on the dollar, the fact that the market has gone up 54% from the march lows, the fact that we have an unsustainable debt problem in this country, the fact that higher oil prices are actually a negative not a positive like the jerks on CNBC will tell you it is, the fact that finding a job in finance has the same odds as rolling a 12 at the craps table, the fact that its different this time. Consumers cut back on total credit by 21 billion last month - a record - while that is positive in the sense that it means people are adjusting their spending habits its a big negative for a consumer driven economy.
I remain stubbornly short - Kids dont try this at home.

JB

There are no words for this action

I meant it , there are no words.

JB

Same ole song and dance

When I went to sleep the SPUZ were down 3 or 4 bucks, I wake up to find them up .75 (shock).
This morning we found out that new mortgage applications were "better than expected"...seeing that Fannie and Freddie (proud members of the DARKMATTER ETF) are the only institutions lending , the US government is going more "all in" on housing. Who cares?
AAPL is getting crushed for about .30 cents pre mkt. Watch out.
The other day I put on a "spread", I got long natgas futures and short crude futures. The historic relationship between the two is so far out of whack right now that it just seemed like a good risk/reward trade. Crude was like 68 and nat gas was 2.65 or so. So far its a small loser.
I see GE is ripping higher this morning, I think some brokerage firms have been upgrading the stock lately - they must be competing for some juicy GE capital bond underwriting fees.
So the ramp continues the mugging that began thursday afternoon before we found out how wonderful the employment picture is. SPUZ up $2 now - momentum chasing is the new value investing. Have fun!!

JB

So I had a bad day

Today stunk, everything about it , we opened up 10 bucks, traded to up 6 or 7 and close up 11 - impossible to trade at all to make back any losses from my short biased position. REITS exploded at the end of the day, must be all of those refinancings that are looming so people wanted to dive into the equity side in advance (huh???). TECH was firm as AAPL soldiers on - 2 points a day until it hits infiniti or a googleplex which ever comes first. The phone just rang on a secondary so Pavlov rang his bell (higher stock prices) , and companies are coming running with stock for sale b/c again the future is so bright.
AIG and its cohorts closed lower - reality setting in? I guess it will trickle over to the general market soon.
Today sucked no ifs and ors butts about it.


JB

This really sucks

Summers over but we are having one of the dullest summer days I can remember. Crashing dollar, exploding gold, oil screaming higher, stocks up, its ridiculous. Are we just gonna do this everyday till oils at 150 again and stocks are back to 14ooo? I sure hope not.
REITS are firm, TECH is firm, Darkmatter is lower. Im getting real frustrated by this upmove which leads me to believe it will keep going. We have been in a 4 point range since 9AM this morning - its just brutal. I got a little scalp in FSLR but overall Im getting dinged today by the direction of the market.

Heres hoping for a selloff this afternoon

JB

Midday

SPUZ are up $8 in exceedingly boring trade. C is down .10 cents, AIG down $3.80 (strangle coming in baby). I guess all the nasdaq needs to keep rallying is for AAPL to go up $2 bucks a day everyday - should be doable. We are seeing some serious wacking of the US dollar today which is pushing up just about every asset class. HOV, HOVNP is trading even - which is good. Im doing very little today - I read Pres. Obamas speech to the kids - it was a nice speech - I read about Michael Moores movie about capitalism being evil - once again hard to take the guy seriously. First he makes a movie about healthcare - hard to listen to a guy talk about busted healthcare when he allows himself to be overweight like he is, second hard to listen to a guy tell me capitalism is eveil when he has made millions of dollars making movies and hoping people come out and watch them.
Im staying short the market here - merrill and credit suisse are upping the S&P targets today so...


JB

Whoa dude

Where am I? Am i still on the beach, whats going on - who cares stocks still only go up. I imagine Foggy eyed traders are thinking these thoughts. The strength has subsided a tiny bit but the SPUZ are still moving up better than .5% right now. Note to self next time the unemployment rate jumps from 9.4% to 9.7% buy every future you can, the arguments from the bulls I heard friday was this is good lets get the worst behind us - huh? Thats all they could come up with??
DARKMATTER is flat to lower, a momentum negative, REITS and TECH are up, Banks are modestly higher (for now).
CHK is flying higher again today as natgas flatlines....Im reshorting a bit here - remember I have the calls in place which allows me to do this.

More later

JB

Uhuh - right

Credit Suisse out with a new S&P target price of 1150, SPUZ up 1% or so this AM - silliness.

Lets see what they are made of once they open.

JB

A mugging

As we get ready to start the new trading week and the end of the vacation season I need to report a mugging. Thursday afternoon the SPUZ were trading 995 and a late day ramp took em to 1002 and then on friday we had a no volume ramp to around 1012 (on a worse than expected Jobs report) , and tonight they are trading 1020 - the shorts were mugged for 25 points - I want em back.
When everyone was crapping in their pants in March Doug Kass got bullish and now when everyone is bullish and worthless companies (AIG,C,FNM, FRE) are trading 100s of millions of shares perday Doug Kass is sounding the warning shofar. Be wary people we went from risk revulsion to risk adoration. I think the S&Ps could trade down 70 points in a day and then just sit there - be ready, be wary, be skeptical. We are facing a future that is missing all of the financial steroids, we can only fake it for so long, the piper will have to be paid eventually. This does not mean that there are not fine companies out there that can prosper but on the whole its going to be a lot tuffer with out huge amounts of available credit to grease the system.

See you in the AM as the summer season is now in the past and I believe Bear season is upon us

JB

The Wrapup

The SPUZ closed at the same level where I wrote before, up 12 bucks or so. I went home short some nasdaq futures. today felt totally bogus to me. That IPO we got was sold out for 1.25 gain - Ill take that. That made up for some losers today. Our fund has attracted some new capital this month which is a good thing. We have positions that we would like to increase in size and more capital will give us the ability to do that. HOV vs HOVNP came in (read:worked in our favor) today, MPGpA did nothing, SPG was up a bit but I did trim my short in there the other day, I got stung by some index option positions. Next week the B teams are off the trading desks and the A teams are in charge again, what will they do?? The A team guys will still have Hamtpons on the brain for the first few hours so get ready to surf the wave. We have had a benign tape since march we'll see what sep and oct bring - will players keep fawning over stocks or is this just a massive short squeeze?? We shall see.
Doug Kass has an eloquent article over at thestreet.com - definitely worth reading.
Personal note - a good friend of mine got engaged today - thats always good news but this is a special case - this is a guy who lost both of his parents has no brothers or sisters and no aunts or uncles - for him to get married and presumably start a family is some of the best news I have heard in a loooooooong time.

Enjoy the long weekend

JB

Silly Trade today

The market is throwing itself a party for the simple reason that it can. The other day when we sold off 180 points we sold off on good news today we are rallying on bad news - There is no easy way to explain this move today. Tuesdays drop has been erased. Heres a big surprise Im shorting into this move.
Interesting to me is that AIG is skipping the party today as it sells off to the tune of 4.4%. FNM,FRE, C on the other hand are all rallying. Huh? The AIG computer simulation must be malfunctioning. This is good action for the strangle I sold in there.
Anyways SPUZ are up 12.75 with an hour to go - I figure (assume Ill be wrong people) they will close up about 7 or 8 points.

JB

Pursuit of Happyness (spelled wrong I know)

I watched some of that movie last night - its the story of a guy who is broke (living in shelters - truly broke) and working extremely hard at creating a life for himself and his son, its a true story. Whats amazing about it is that the main character never really loses his composure, he doesn't lash out at people, he doesn't blame other for his misfortune - and trust me he has a lot of misfortune. What a rare individual. This is a major flaw of mine, as I have gotten older I have become more petty and I hate it, Im in a business where lots of time its tuff to control your fate over the short term and it can eat you up. I wish I could just turn it off but its not easy - this is how I feed my family - I have to work on dealing with my emotions better.
Anyways back to the markets The SPUZ are up $5, hanging out. AIG is lower by $1.4 (helping that strangle I sold for the time being). We participated in a Chinese IPO today, LIWA, came at $4 - we got a decent allocation - we'll see how it trades. Why the market is up today I have no idea - unemployment was worse than expected - but it is what it is.

JB

Newspaper day

Today is the kind of day that if I was still on the CBOE I would have been able to memorize the entire newspaper. Id be sitting on the floor reading the paper hoping something would happen.
At least in my office I have a chair.
AIG, the manic depressive, was higher this morning and now is lower. Banks are up a bit in the early goings as is TECH, REITS are doing a whole lotta nothing.
Does anyone out there have any idea how the government is gonna have enough money to pay for everything they are trying to do - they are clearly going to have to extend jobless benefits as peoples benefits run out and they cant find jobs. If they dont you will just have an explosion in crime rates which will just put more people in prison which will cost governments money. It seems obvious that tax hikes have to be coming - how will that effect the consumer - probably not well.
They say its always darkest before the dawn - but the future looks scary to me.
I have found a new convertible that interests me so Im gonna try and start buying some - it trades rather sparingly so it will give me something to focus on today.

JB

Gimme a break

SPUZ rally 8 bucks in the last 20 minutes yesterday and then they continue rally this morning with the unemployment rate shooting back up to 9.7% - SPUZ are up 3 this morning. The spinners are working overtime this morning. I shorted nasdaq futures up at 1616 - as I write Im buying back at 1607.
The darkmatter sector is looking firm this morning - so we are back to being led by sheer madness.
It should be a very quiet session but should is the operative word. You never really know.

JB

Buy program

The close of trading featured a little buy program wish pushed the indices to the highs of the day,
The SPUZ close up almost 1%. Tomorrow morning we have the non farms payroll report, perhaps Beeks leaked the info this afternoon??? With another week of 570k initial jobless claims Im not sure how the unemployment report can be good, but Ive been surprised before. The market is likely to be dead tomorrow after some intital fireworks from the jobs reports.

It was a very nondescript session, Banks had a bid as did tech. Darkmatter was strong.

See you in the AM.

JB

AIG

I sold the sep 40 call, sep 30 put strangle in AIG for a little better than $6 bucks, so im safe to $46 on the upside and $24 on the downside. We'll see how that works.
Its another quiet session with the SPUZ basically unchanged. The Cubs are playing a makeup game vs the Sox today so something to watch as the market is allready in holiday mode.
I sold my FSLR calls this morning. Im buying a little APO in here - its a REIT (no dividend right now) that just sold some properties in Puerto Rico which generated almost 10 million in cash for them and the company has a market cap of just over 30 million, I dont think those assets they sold are 1/3 of the companies value - biggest problem here is that the stock trades by appointment.

Really quiet


JB

Strength turns to weakness

The initial excitement over China (?????????) has subsided. The SPUZ are now down a buck on the day.
Shorts I like right now
ANDE
WTFC
LTM
REITS

Moodys is getting rocked today - that is not a good thing for "the market". Feels like the market wants to trade lower. Back later

JB

Mornin

SPUZ up 6 bucks on some renewed optimism over the Chinese market...blah blah blah. Initial jobless claims came in slightly worse than expected at 570k - boy this economy really sucks.
HOVs earnings were significantly worse than expected - the stock is taking it on the chin for about 8% pre market - we'll see how the preferred trades and if on the conference call anything interesting is said. When you think about it how could a homebuilder have good earnings right now? Almost all RE sales are distressed properties, there is no room for a builder who has a profit built into his price, the sales that are going on are painful sales - sales that have losses for owners,banks,mortgage companies attached.
Today I will look to sell some premium in AIG (maybe some strangles) as I feel like the stocks ability to sustain 20% moves everyday is coming to an end - it needs to chillllllll.
Every minute that this holiday weekend gets closer is a minute where another market participant packs it in for an even longer weekend. The lack of liquidity cuts both ways my friends, so be careful.
Finally just something that has been bothering me - Heidi Klum and Seal - I'm not talking about the obvious thing that she is white and he is black - I could care less about that. She is so beautiful it could make you cry, he on the other hand has a complexion that would scare a can of noxema. Did she marry him so that she would look even more beautiful or is she just a genuine person who doesnt care about looks? Ill go with the latter.

JB

A pool of drool

Thats whats sitting on my desk as I stare at this listless market. Putting me to sleep.
Bears vs Bulls - a draw. No one wins today. The S&P has had a ten point range for the entire day thats a pretty small range. The most notable action today is that Treasuries advanced by 1 1/4 points, Bulls take on that is "great for housing - lower mortgage rates" Bears take on this "economic growth must be tepid - stocks are to high".
After the close today I will get to hear what HOV has to say - I look forward to this.
I put on a small buywrite in TBT (short gvt bonds ETF) today, I like my chances with the run Tbonds have had - remember its a game of odds.

To bored to write more

JB

few things

REITS are trading weak today, Banks on the otherhand have sprouted a little green. TECH has a small bid - its an extremely muted session. Im out of my AIG call rental - made a few bucks on it.
FSLR im holding onto my long as I just feel its super oversold.
Im looking for new arb ideas but Im just not seeing anything right now. A few weeks ago GS put GOOG on the conviction buy list - stock has really not done anything so Im gonna put on some put spreads in there - play for a drop.
On a sadder note it appears that the Cubs season is for all intents and purposes over - they cant win more than two in a row and St. Louis cant lose - they have arguably the best player in baseball. So as you learn to say at a very young age in Chicago "wait till next year".

JB

Dont like this action

Some oversold names are bouncing hard, FSLR, AIG (took upside stabs in em yesterday), but overall I feel like this market is heavy. Lots of players are figuring that with Labor Day coming up the market will be firm bcuz it usually is - thats a perfect time to pull the rug out.
I remain short and am leaking out some of the AIG calls I bought.
If you look at the treasury market bonds keep creeping higher - not a big vote of confidence in the growth story.
Front month natgas is down to $2.77 - that is just amazing - that must mean that there is really tepid industrial demand - CHK go down allready.
I read that BP found a large oil field in the gulf of Mexico like 3 billion barrels worth - is there any chance that oil replenishes its supply over time? That would be cool.

JB

HOV vs HOVNP

CONVERGENCE BABY!!!!!!!!

JB

Whole lotta nuttin

So far nothing substantial is happening - some flopping and chopping. REITS and banks are somewhat weak, AAPL has some strength, OIL is down a bit - mixed barrel.
The DARKMATTER sector is lower - this is a momentum negative.
I have some 950 puts in the SPX that Im hoping come into play today - if we could see a SPUZ price of 985 Id start to hedge them a bit by buying some futures. For now I have bought back some more AXL, bought a bit more BAC against my puts and am watching.

JB

Need some Java

I wake up to find the SPUZ putting in a flatline performance - should I crawl back into bed or go grab some coffee? Im gonna stick around the house this morning to see my kids off to their first day of school and especially my son who heads to his first day of kindergarten.
Yesterdays action felt like a bit of a gamechanger as far as the markets makeup but the bulls have been very good at marginalizing the effects of the downdays. 958 is the 50 day moving average in the SPUZ and 950 is our target so thats how we are playing.
A company I watch ZALES (ZLC) was supposed to release earnings today and postponed it till next week - thats probably not a good thing - but if the stock gets hammered on that news Ill look to buy it.
Anyways Ill have more to report later - have a good morning

JB

Bulls suffer a smackdown

The market closed near its lows of the day, Wells Fargo denied rumors that it was going to raise capital to repay the tarp - nobody cared - today was a day for selling apparently. I trimmed some shorts to maintain my discipline but the bias remains to the short side. I was wrong HOV reports tomorrow after the close, sorry about that.
DARKMATTER got annihilated today, AIG, FNM,FRE, C - I did say a few days back that if the futures came unglued that these stocks would suffer - well not to toot my horn but I told ya.
What does tomorrow bring? The bulls are wounded, if they pop right back tomorrow I think that would be met with lots of selling. 950 is still my partners target to the downside.
My fund performed quite well today so Im gonna enjoy the victory. The thing I hate about being right to the downside is that I wish my view of the future was less dire than it is - it scares me - of course if Im wrong thats a problem as well - cant win.

REITS and financials are your momentum clues for tomorrow - have a good night.

JB

Summers over kids

3 of my kids start school tomorrow, one in a week, no more beach, pool, late movie nights, strolls to the ice cream store in the afternoon - back to work, back to reality. Kind of feels thats whats happening in the market today , back to reality where stocks dont go the way you want em to all the time. Look across the board today and its hard to find many winners. The dipbuyers are not doing there thing today, we have been overbought for the last 4 weeks, sentiment has to turn darker more worried. People need a gutcheck.
After the close we have HOV earnings - we'll see how great the homebuilding world is or is not. How can it be good - I cant see how its possible but Ive been wrong before and am always willing to learn.
Im paring my short deltas in SPG just a bit here - staying with winners is just as tuff as cutting losses some time.
Im overall still pretty short the market - no reason to reverse that right now I dont think.

JB

Early line is...

September is tuff on stocks. The S&P is selling off to the tune of 2.1% , the nasdaq about the same.
REITS are getting pummeled - I got no problem with that, AXL beaten for about 8%, the Darkmatter sector is reeling. I greatly reduced my MPGpA holdings in the last few weeks, perhaps it will get sold to a level where I might want to buy again. A few weeks ago I took a flyer on some BAC puts (basically fading the ramp on the John Pauslon announcement), BAC is getting hit today (-4.3%) so I bought some common against my puts. There really is no where to hide today.
The bulls are going to have to pull some major horns out of there assses today to rally this market - but can't fade that as a possibilty.
Natgas continues to get killed, and CHK goes down grudgingly - I think CHK is a $17 dollar stock in $23 dollar clothes.
I took a shortterm rental on AIG right here - looking for a quick pop -and then out.

JB

Rumor Mill is spinning

Wall Street Rumor - a large bank is failing?? Dont make me laugh - reverse the FASB rules and they all fail...TARP the sequel is heading towards a theater near you....



JB

Whats this I see?

A selloff, a rally, a selloff - a real trading day? Are the computers being given a day off? "Turn those machines back on"...This is my kind of day. Movement.
That FSLR long stab yesterday is stabbing me a bit - luckily its just some long calls, and I have plenty of shorts to make up for it.
The future is uncertain at best - but really isnt that always the case? You never really know whats gonna happen, analysts everywhere have been upping their S&P target prices - why?? Beacuse they are playing a different version of the momentum game that daytraders play. Doug Kass is the man you should listen to - he called the bottom and I think he called the top last week at around S&P 1030. Why would you listen to a guy at BAC who sits in an office and theorizes what earnings are going to look like - markets are just enactments of human emotions - today it would appear people want to protect what they have.
1003 is decent support on the S&P - keep an eye on that level.

JB

Early breakfast late start

Mornin - spent the morning having breakfast with a potential investor - he was receptive and said he would invest in my fund- he asked great questions and was a very quick study - he's an entrepreneur so Im not surprised.
When I left the house the SPUZ were down 5 bucks or so and I walk in to find em up 4 so yawn.
TECH strong, REITS weak, DARKMATTER weak, Im covering some of my AXL as it comes down and reshorting some CHK as it rallys.
My partner exited some of our puts for a profit when the market was down this morning...yipeee.

more later

JB