2009 Cya

Its almost over.
A year like none other - insane highs and lows - S&P 666 to S&P 1124 - people lining up to pull money out of banks, storied institutions vanished (or at least their equity did) think , FNM, FRE, CIT, Lehman etc....and others have vaulted to the top of the business totem poll, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG etc.
Personally this has been a great year and a tuff year - we successfully launched a hedgefund as the world was vomiting risk - we started off with great returns , but as volatility waned in the market place we took it on the chin - especially the last few weeks.
Next year will be different that much I know for sure. New Years also happens to my birthday - another year older - hopefully a bit wiser.

Have a great New Year

JB

Lucky #7

The markets are setting up for their 7th up day in a row - again the SPUZ have made a 4 point upmove overnight and we find them hovering at 1127 - 1127??? WTF??
The BETA stocks are off and running this AM, AAPL thru PCLN all up at least .40% in the early going - This morning Barton Biggs and Marc Faber are being qouted as saying stocks and the dollar should continue to rally - ok Im good with that.
I think if I have learned anything while battling this government sponsored equity orgy its that people are bound to commit the same mistakes over and over - yours truly included. I see the negative to a fault and others see the positive to a fault.
Oh well have a good day trading.

JB

Xmas Original

Twas the night before xmas not a spuz was sold, the bulls we're elated as they spun more gold. California budget woes ignored bears selloff hopes again were gored. Bonds were sold rates popped higher bulls sat cheerily by admiring the fire. Bears looked at their barren trees and wondered if their funds will ever again generate fees. Lehman,Wamu,Bear, fannie and freddie were just mere stumbling blocks to returns that have become quite heady. AIG has been forgotten, GM Chrysler who cares the Obama crew has killed the bears. The VIX has tumbled , traders have been humbled. Intraday volatility has vanished and Kass thinks shortsellers might be banished. Cramer's bullishness rules the roost boy oh boy my P&L could use a boost. While the world welcomes the most famous Jew this Jew wonders will the bears ever again say boo? enjoy your long holiday weekend I wish you all well I'm hoping this xmas begins the end of bear hell.

JB

And the drummer beats on

As the wall street elite schuss down the slopes of Vail and Aspen thanks to massive taxpayer subsidized bonuses stocks keep their upside swagger in what I can truly call mind numbing trade.
Its ever so interesting to me how the "range" for the day is always about 3 points higher than yesterdays close to keep the bullish feel going. When Obama said a year ago "i think its a good time to buy stocks" he sure was not kidding. Everyday since then has been a good day to buy stocks. Im so sick of being forced by the federal reserve with their zero interest rate policy to take risk. If I had a 100 grand (I only wish) in a money market Im gonna earn $148 this year on it - WTF??
Its just wrong - all this so the aholes at GS and JPM and CITI and BAC who choked on all of these ridiculous mortgages can maintain their lifestyles - how bout a little fucking justice??

So stupid

JB

Anybody seen the Grinch?

Im wondering if he is going to be able to steal Xmas or perhaps Obama, Bernanke and Geitner have shipped him down to gitmo to make sure that no SPUZ are ever sold. One market that is under selling pressure are US Treasuries - structurally a good short b/c the US has to keep selling inorder to keep up with our governments never ending spending - some resistance areas on yields were breached yesterday - watch this market as the debt markets size makes our stock market seem like a silly little kid.
The master beta names are all bid up this AM as the algorithms warm up and get ready to do todays work.
Gold is weak again as are treasuries - stock futures have a green light again popping $5 bucks and why not the grinch is in gitmo.

Have a good day

JB

News that means nothing

The FDIC took it on the chin for another 1.8 billion friday - yawn..the Chinese are jawboning about how there aint enough money to keep buying US Treasuries...etc etc etc - the market opened about 6 higher and at the open vaulted another 5 higher in minutes and from there its been a no range kinda day with a 1 dollar push higher evey hour - Santa Calus is in the house.
For my own mental health in 2010 I will be paying no heed to Jim Cramer - he aggrevates me to no end - he loves a stock one day and then never metnions it again - who needs advisors like that? Not me so Im swearing him off, no mad money no real money no nuttin.
This is one heck of a tuff game - live to trade another day.

JB

Santa rally

What a dumbass Santa is - the FDIC gets tagged for almost 2 billion in bank failures friday afternoon - and here's Santa in his redsuit buying every SPU he can get his hands on as they are up $6 in the early goings here monday morning.
The beta stocks are all moving up premarket - cuz I guess pople are gonna pay more for em by the end of the day?? I plan on sorta just monitoring the portfolio today not really trying to trade as this market will be thin as the man in the red ruit tries to tack on a few percent to pad peoples stockings. I hope to take a day this week and take my older kids skiing (if you can call it that in the midwest).
My advice is be careful this week it can be very whippy.

All eyes on Citi.............

Huge secondary and covertible offering...........
This is tomorrows story. I need this market to crack - perhaps the 33% dilution that this deal is bringing on Citi shareholders will be the spark - in two days 32 billion in equity issuance from just two companies???? How is thr market not down - how? its impossible. Government intervention has to be involved.

JB

What the Frick?

Can someone call the CME and ask them if they have outlawed selling of S&Ps?? The calmness and persistence of SPU buyers is simply amazing - most traders I talk to are numb to the trading environment at this point. They cant really figure out how and why we have reached the heights we currently find ourselves at. Remind me that the next time the US govt goes all in that I should buy futures and not look at them for 8 months or so...
Yesterday GE said that Commerical Real Estate is problematic, some insurance group said they are facing large losses in CRE and yet today and everyother day for that matter the REITS chug higher - shrinking their dividend yields and juicing their FFO multiples - Im just not smart enough to understand this price action. This is up there with some of the worst trading periods of my career - the lack of intraday volatility combined with a one way train to the moon is a lethal (i hope not) combination.
Anyways - the fed is the last piece of news for today - which more than likely will be a non event.

JB

Elves in charge

The Xmas spirit is upon us and the markets are
bouyant - the SPUZ have reversed yesterdays
massive losses of $4 points. Today Times man of the year Mr. Bernanke will tell us that interest rates are going to remain low for an extended period of time....and then the market will probably throw itself a party. Why not? Tonight Citi prices its big secondary offering - look for Citi to set an all time record for one day trading volume tomorrow.
Housing starts were in line but who cares - the bull fix headlock is on - Jim Cramer has raised his GOOG price target to $750 - he must click on a lot of GOOG ads to be so bullish.

JB

Ummm ok

SPUZ down all morning premarket on perceived negative economic news, a "bad" number our of Bestbuy and yet here we find ourselves with a market that is barely changed from yesterday. Intraday volatility has vanished, with Stock futures capable of trading at the same price for hours on end. Wierd is all I can call it. I would love to see one of the big longs break the gentlemans agreement and let some stocks go...but really why should they - they have the full faith and credit of Geithner, Bernake and Obama behind them - people think this is nuts but who exactly is telling (ordering whatever) Citibank, B of A, Wells Fargo to raise all this money?? Those three gentleman are calling the shots. Im tired, worn out , worried, and just pissed off by this "trading" environment. maybe I will take Jimmy Rogers advice and learn how to farm

JB

Quant traders are scratching their heads

Dollar UP
OIL UP
GOLD DOWN
STOCKS DOWN (ever so slightly)

Divergences in the famed carry trade are popping up all over the place. I could give a rats ass about these relationships as I believe its just a simple case of fooled by randomness.
You can be sure at these "trading firms" the Asian and Russian geniuses are standing infront of 10 foot whiteboards trying to grapple with the fact that the algos are failing them this morning.
I guess the news is that there are massive equity offerings coming from Wells Fargo and Citibank in the next day or so - $30 billion in total. Im sure this will be gobbled up easily and then the pros will be clamoring fro yet higher stock prices...blah blah, wash, rinse, repeat.
Best Buy posted numbers this morning thus far the stock is selling off to the tune of 5% - the bald guy is allready out defending BBY as the script continues to be leaked to him everyday from the powers that be at GE. Obama's hypocrisy is really making my stomach turn.

JB

Drip, Drip, Drip

The water is being dripped on traders foreheads as the market continues to do noting - REITS are trading higher as is TECH for the most part. Its as dull as it gets. The gentlemans agreement to not sell stocks continues as market players coax more and more investors in to the fray.
Obama had a bunch of Wall St bosses in his office today - while we are being told they were talking about new regulations they infact were logging into Bloomberg anywhere studying the latest heat seeking algos to keep the market bid at all times.
The SPUZ have been in a two point range for the last 3 hours - its unbearable!!

JB

The baby has gotten its bottle

The market wanted a Dubai bailout and it got it - shhhh stop crying. So basically now any time a sovereign debt issue comes up it is not a problem - a bailout will be announced and everyone can go on there merry way.
There is some excitement in the natural gas space today as XOM is buying XTO - this is an interesting data point - shows the importance of natural gas in the future.
Nothing else to really report this AM

JB

Just dumb

Dollar strength is being shrugged off by the heat seeking SPU buyers - if it feels good just do it. So the market which almost went (Heaven forbid) negative on the day is higher. It is achieving this while AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG and GS are all lower, "pretty sneak sis". How do they do it??
I think at this point it is glaringly obvious that the stock market is a rigged game - how the broader averages can rally while all of the leadership trades down is just stunning. If Obama and geithner can figure out how to manipulate the market as well as they do why cant they create a few jobs??
Yet another day of spinning my wheels

JB

Mornin

Slight dollar smusshage overnight leads to a $6 point rally in the stock futures this AM - ba humbug. At 7:30 we get retail sales figures - last night video game sales were reported as punky - all of my Hanukkah gifts are being bought at Target ($20 bucks and under) and Zappos (boots for the girls). The SPU buyers are on a binge like the guys in the picture above one mornign they are gonna wake up and they will not remember what happened and there will be a Tiger (bear) in the room, Good luck today and Happy Hanukkah - the holiday that commemorates the Jews beating the odds and taking out a much larger enemy, kind of like the Bears vs the Bulls.

JB

More of the same

The bulls are untouchable, Dubai, Sovereign CDS's, Moodys downgrading Greece and various US states, worse than expected jobless claims, bad treasury auctions - nothing matters - stocks (or at least stock futures) are where its at. The SPUZ were once again permabid they looked like they were gonna flush in the last halfhour but amazingly a stabalizing bid showed up - how does that happen? Gee I wonder.
I dont want to be bearish I really dont but I dont know how else to interpret what I am seeing and reading. If anyone outthere can offer up a good reason to be long and what it is you would be long please shoot a comment my way.

JB

Oh do I want to get immensely short here

at 1103 in the SPUZ i wish I could get insanely short but that would be insane.
I think you get a flush today at some point - why are people buying em today? Why? For no fucking good reason. Eventually the fact that we cant get thru this 1110 area will set us up for a nice selloff - tuff when Santa Clause is lurking though....

JB

Sweet Home Chicago...........

NOT!! S&P downgrades Illinois credit.
Let me go buy some more risky assets!

JB

Truth hurts

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deal-was-supposed-mark-renaissance-new-york-commercial-real-estate-market-collapses

But not in this market SLG is trading up!!!!

Gotta love it.

JB

Roll the Gap open boys

Jobless claims worse than "expected" buy em - SPUZ up about $7 bucks pre market as the buyers just cant wait to get back at what they do - chasing the same 6 stocks AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GS, GOOG, PCLN. As I sit here a guy on the NYSE floor who probably dropped out of some highschool in the Bronx and perhaps earned a GED has just declared that the carry trade is alive and well - short the dollar buy risk assets - this guy couldnt define the carry trade if he was sitting in front of a fucking Random house dictionary of finance.
Anyways some interesting rumblings in the Real estate world - I guess SL Green had a major deal blowup?? Huh I thought everything was getting better??

Oh well - gotta run and go buy some AAPL etc.....NOT

JB

Okedoke

So I mentioned before that General Growth properties (GGWPQ) has been on a major tear - from about .50 cents within the last 6 or 7 months up to $10.75 today. Bill Ackman has made a fortune (or another one) on this bet. I just read a piece he wrote about Mall Reits "still being cheap" - As a board member of GGWPQ he is privy to lots of information about potential deals for the company , the Wall St. Journal has been suggesting that SPG (simon Prop group) and Brookfield Malls are interested in acquiring the company - I would l0ve to see in those meetings if Ackman is saying give us stock or is he saying sorry cash only bids!!
I never go to malls so I have no idea what is going on in that world but I sure do see for rent signs EVERYWHERE!!!!!
It is so funny to me that people continue to kid themselves that the market is back to normal - unless employment starts to grow soon and government tax receipts start to increase we are going to eventually buckle under the weight of all the goverments debt. The people in Washington are morons they have no clue anymore what it means to be a normal citizen - when was the last time anyone of those senators or congressman stood in line at the grocery store or paid some bills - they cant govern effectively b/c they in Washington invariably lose touch with what it means to be a normal citizen - Im not really sure where this rant is coming from but you got it anyways.

Cya tomorrow

JB

Im back

Been away for a few days but I am now back to find the world basically the same as I left it. The dollar has strengthened a bit gold has weakened a bit and stocks have barely budged from the highs - all is well.
The beta stocks AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GS GOOG, PCLN have been spoiling the Xmas cheer a bit as they have had a small swoon. One guy who is having a heck of a week is Mr. Bill Ackman, General Growth just keeps rockin higher $10.85 at last check - hes all in at about .50 cents - nice play.
I guess the real question from here is if the markets start to slide a bit more will portfolio managers rush for the exits so as to preserve their massive gains in equities from the March lows.
More when I get my barings back

JB

Tuff to be a bear

The Market has a nice end of day decline yesterday with all of the momo beta names giving it up and this morning the jobs report is way better than expected and the market has reversed all of yesterdays losses and then some - here is the really tuff part though the dollar is rallying today which is leading to weakness in gold and theoretically should be leading to weakness in all asset classes but nope - SPUZ are up $15 here premarket - if the jobs report had been bad the dollar would be getting smoked and that would have supported stocks (only in the fucked up world we live in but thats a discussion for later) but the bulls can have their cake and eat it to.

This opening is gonna hurt.

JB

The truth and nothing but the truth

From my muse

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/untold-story-emergency-unemployment-compensation-surge-265k-one-week

JB

AMZN

Up yet another 2% this morning - 1999 all over again.
BAC paying back the tarp - yawn stock up .30.
SPUZ hit 1116.5 this AM and have now declined to 1107 - now is when the Fed ie GS and JPM come in and just bid for SPUZ - "no way is this market selling off" and later in the day they will grind back to the highs right? Blah Blah Blah
Friggin absurd at this point how unnaturally this market trades.
Gold is selling off as is oil but not equities - why should they? Jim Cramer is still and always bullish.

Fuck em all

JB

AAPL what gives?

AAPL is trading punky - like all is not well in the Kingdom of JOBS - I dont know how that is possible - AAPL is rockin from everything I can SEE. But regardless the stock is acting crappy - hmmm.
The SPUZ have given back the mornings gains and are getting walloped for a whole buck - total panic. AMZN continues to move higher 2.4% today - have they cured cancer? Gold continues its massive powermove but oil is a bit lower today. Is it just me or has the market been rallying for an awfully long time? I would love to meet those people who have owned and watched AMZN rally 50 dollars in the last 6 weeks - how do they not sell?

JB

Pancake

Flat as one is how the opening is shaping up - AMZN is up AGAIN pre market - simply amazing.
Ive been feeling pretty rotten about my trading lately as I battle this never ending bullrun but it has gotten so bad for us bear/free market types that Nobel Laureate Taleb, who started a volatility trading fund as the vix was at 55 (now at 22) has removed himself from public life.
In a normal world that would signify some sort of top in the market and allow for a sustained downmove but this is just not a normal market.

Good luck today

JB

Huh???

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mf-global-cancels-250-million-10-year-bond-offering-due-market-conditions

JB

I was just reading

My favorite (or not) bald pundit who just opined that that the market continues to power forward without the help of the bank stocks - says this market is so strong it does not need the banks. When people start making exceptions for stuff like the BS we are seeing on an hourly basis it gets dangerous. See cuz the reason you listen to him is his vast experience well now he is saying that what he has learned is wrong - stay long regardless of anything. Interesting to me thats all.
Of course in my experience it seems I have learned nothing.

JB

Dubai done!!

The Dubai hiccup is over , markets are back to status qou - Bernanke crushing dollar, daytraders the world over chasing AMZN and other nutty priced stocks. SPUZ are 100% permabid - I suppose now the bulls can have a Santa rally, Why? Why the fuck not!!
If you bothered to read that CMBS article I posted last night you should not worry REITs are doing just fine today after that snappy rally yesterday afternoon - equities do not care about scary statistics and more importantly the "fund managers" buying them everyday dont either.
I want to aplogize to any readers out there who I have influenced with my negative view on things - trust me I wish I saw things differently cuz then Id be up 20% this year and not 11% - but I can only call it how I see it.

JB

Id apprecieate comments feedback criticism

Let er rip!!!!!!!!!!!

JB

Roll the up $9 point opening boys

The up $9 opening has been selected for todays early opening act ( I have a 5 year old who woke me up earlier than normal). Im selling futures against my long SPX calls - I got lucky and covered em (futures) all on DDAY (Dubai Day).
People are excited today b/c?? I guess Dubai will get a bailout? So not only is the dollar worthless so is the currency in Dubai - cuz if you dont have enough of it will just print more.....
I suppose I should latch onto the fact that there is a kabal amongst US Fund mamgers to not sell stocks - how else could the bald guy be right everyday??
As far as early morning movers AMZN is up .90% (dont worry its early +2% is in the cards) AAPL is up .81% you get the idea...
Ill be very curious to see if DLR,AVB,SPG,ACC are able to keep those last hour gains from yesterday - I mean honestly who was not plowing into CRE on the close yesterday??
Spicoli (pictured) was the fund manager who made that audible call to buy any and all CRE plays on the close yesterday - who can compete with a dope smoking surfer??

JB

Nutin but the facts........

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/realpoint-october-cmbs-update-326-billion-october-delinquencies-504-yoy-increase-forecasts-6

This must be why the REITs exploded higher this afternoon............

JB

Simply Stunning

What is the reason why Dubai is defaulting?? Because they cant rent or sell the tremendous amount of Real Estate that has been constructed over there - so what sector took off in the last hour with a vengeance rarely seen? The REITS!!
SPG +2.93
DLR +2.13
AVB +3.12
ACC +.93
These real estate plays were hotter than a hooker in a room full of 16 year old boys! Once again the logical trade NEVER works!!
The other news of the day was that Target stinks, TGT -1.14 and AMZN is hot to trot +4.17 - apparently online shopping is really catching on (duh!!!!!!!!!!!)
Have a good evening

JB

Feel compelled to mention

After a scare on thursday and friday where markets actually displayed a modicum of fear at 10:34 PM this evening we are back to monkeyhammering the dollar and rallying all equities eveywhere. Spuz are up $7 .25 or .67% - so away we go. Tomorrow is the last day of the month so portfolio managers everywhere will be protecting their portfolios - except for the happless bears (right???)
Well we'll see if these gains hold, build or decline over night - my guess is they will fade (no surprise there) I just cant handle how stupid it is to contiue buying US equities and every other equity on earth because the dollar is weakening - its stupid, stupid , stupid.
Be patient bears our day is coming - and its getting sooner - if one emerging market is gonna blow up (Dubai) you can be sure there will be more remember last year how mortgage issues were "contained" - well now 1/4 US mortgages is underwater....so take peoples claims of containment with an enormous grain of salt.

JB

Since we last spoke

A few interesting things have happened - Dubai which literally was building towers to the heavens has stumbled (pretty badly). It has roiled (probably most used word when it comes to messed up credit markets) their creditors and caused some pukage in world equity markets. The damage to US markets was mild at best - and the most notable thing was that the lows of the market were the opening ticks - the dip buyers bought the market immediately so that by the end of the day the loss for the Dow was 150 points. I woke up and read article after article about how to take advantage of the silly selloff....now the selloff maybe over done (I have no idea) but the fact that everyone was looking to buy the dip makes it unlikely that this Dubai issue will be shortlived or easily contained. Anyways we'll hear plenty about this all week Im sure - there will proabably be constatn talk about wether or not the UAE will bail them out, which banks are reeling from this (HSBC,RBC) who is next etc??
To me with the S&P up 65% from the lows there is ample room for stocks to correct and this MAY be the catalyst...it MAY not be as well. Selloffs have been one day wonders - but when sovereign debt issues come into play Id say there is potential for more than a one day hiccup to the downside. I suppose its possible that tomorrow we will return to the regular scheduled program of buying AAPL,AMZN,BIDU, GOOG etc...The other important news we will hear tomorrow most likely is how the insanity of black friday went - this notion of getting up at 3AM to go buy something, anything at a store for Xmas is kookoo - I have had to go out at 3AM to buy my kids Motrin or Tylenol and I must say its not fun - but to each his own.

Cya in the AM

JB

Three things Im not thankful for

Bernanke
Obama
Geithner

JB

Trumpets are a blaring

Jobless claims were only 466k, stocks cant selloff, dollar going down, gold going up, oil going up, VIX at $20 - no risk left in the system, none, in AMZN and AAPL we trust.
Banks are heavy today but AMZN isnt it so there really is no reason to ever sell a share of anything ever again, the SPUZ are on autopilot - $8 bucks a day again - I dont know why I bother coming in these days.
Anyways as vols keep dropping call spreads widen out - Im selling an SPX call spread a 15 points pread for 8.2 all I can (will) lose is 7.8.

Enjoy Thanksgiving

JB

Long idea

I bought some FMLP, troubled mall operator - thinking if GGP can work out all of their loans and the stock in bankruptct mind you can go from .35 cents to 6.75 maybe FMLP can go from .10 cents to .75 cents....in this tape you never know and if im worng all I lose is a dime.....

JB

9:55 PM - stupididty continues

Gold up $7.4, SPUZ up $2, Dollar slightly lower - rinse, repeat, rinse. So in the AM oil will attempt to shake off bearish API data tonight and cling to the higher everything trade....its just silly, silly, silly.
Shit I better go hedge my long gold with some long stock futures??
Boy oh boy has this administration created a monster - zero percent interest rates, dollar printing press etc, equity revulsion to equity adoration - gimee a break - Obama will be a one term wonder (I pray) and Bernanke - the man who killed the dollar - he'll have quite a speaking tour but he wont accept dollars as payment just gold bullion.

JB

My Brain hurts

How do I describe today? Do you remember when you were in school and you would stare at the clock wondering how its possible that time was not moving as some teacher droned on about some inane subject? The market today almost had me fooled into believing that we could see some downside but manipulating the market higher this week is easier than almost any other week - its Thanksgiving people feel good they dont want to bother themselves with the trainwreck that the USD and the world economy is. For now listen to Jim Cramer as the word from on high is trickling down to him at his GE sponsored post - he remains a bull in a world of bears - I could not disagree with him more but hey he's on TV and Im not.
If there was no trade today there will be no trade tomorrow so tomorrow I will clean my desk at the office and pay attention to the market with half an eye.

Over and out

JB

Scary corrolations

AMZN and GOLD move in the same direction at all times now - the "traders" who are trading based off of every tick in the USD are buying and selling these things at the same times - its BEYOND stupid. Kinda makes sense on one level, GOLD is the long for the inevitable default by the US on its massive debt load, AMZN helps that situation as buyers dont pay sales tax...sales tax go where people?? Government coffers.
Anyway the SPUZ were down most of the night till they shot up at 2 am, they sold off about 6,7 points in early trade this AM and are now unchanged...
Nothing to report.

JB

I didnt get the memo

That pre thanksgiving trade now started on the monday beforehand. Huge gap, all the momo names going nuts, no real chances to trade. Got one good trade in POT 3.5 points on a trade but it was against long vol - and vols got creamed today - pie in the face ugly.
The world we live in now nobody even is bothered by the fact that oil,gold,treasuries, and stocks are all up together....I thought my portfolio would fare pretty well in a gap opening - it didnt I got hurt on long volatility and my long positions really underperformed -
Here were your big winners

AAPL + 2.85%
AMZN +2.58%
BIDU +2.47%
GOOG +2.2%

yada, yada, yada. It appears that the market has decided that AAPL and GOOG are going to split up the smartphone world and thats it end of story.
How bout Gold up another $18 dollars today? Amazing - simply amazing - I dont remember a time when the stock markets direction and golds were so linked - if the market gets killed it means the dollar is ralyling which will mean gold is for sale - to qoute Walter Sopchek "has the whole world gone crazy?"

Cya tomorrow

JB

Holiday market

Market players are turning on the holiday trading programs a little early, we wake up to find SPUZ up $11 points or 1% - the dollar is down this morning. Gold is melting up another 12-13 dollars - oil is a tad highers and the beta names are shaking off last weeks minor drubbing and leaping 1-2% pre market.
Nothing major to report.

JB

Whats the deal?

2 down openings in a row?? The bulls must be tapping there qoutrons - huh? at CNBC the anchors must be telling the camera people that the teleprompters are on the fritz - this cant possibly happen two down openings in a row. We'll see - at the opening is SPX, NDX, and RUT option expiration - perhaps our favorite bailed out NYC firm is short some lower strikes so they are leaning on the futures to capture their profits?? Nah they would never do that.
Huge secondary and convertible offering from DRYS last night - kinda makes me like the stock here at $6.15 I m gonna look to buy stock and sell the December $6 calls - the buywrite should offer about a 10% return for a month - obvioulsy there is risk in that trade but the company is flush with cash now....
Hawks absolutely crushed last night - crushed 7-1.


JB

Beta for sale get your beta

The generals of BETA are showing that beta cuts both ways for once. AAPL, AMZN,BIDU,GOOG,GS,PCLN are bleeding the cut is manageable but you never know when you go from needing a bandaid to a tourniqet. The SPUZ have been holding at 1089 pretty well - why? I dont know.
The other day I read that at some UBS homebuilders conference Hovnanian (HOV) announced that they are buying land - prices are a steal - this is a company that is sitting on 1.5 billion in unsold inventory - they are taking their cash and buying land instead of retiring preferred stock (HOVNP) at 22% of par - brilliant! Pisses me off to no end. Land may be cheap but its cheap for a reason there are 18 million vacant homes in the US right now - just what we need more homes.
Anyway the market is down about 1.5% as I write this where we will end up nobody knows.

Later
JB

Kinda losing it

My frustration level with the market is hitting a major boiling point - I dont, wont , cant see the constant bullcase and due to that 12 of the last 13 days have told me Im a moron who doesn't deserve to have a seat at the trading table. So this morning when I wake up to see the SPUZ down $8 I dont even get excited anymore - its just a question as to how long it will take for them to turn positive on the day. So far my 1108 TOP call from the other day has been right - but I have been calling a top in my head since 910...........It sucks feeling stupid, self esteem is an important thing - mine is sinking like the titanic in the last few minutes - fast!
We need more assets in my fund - 6.5 million just aint gonna cut it - kinda hard to attract lots of capital when you are up 11% for the year and the market is going up 5% a week.

Oh well, heres hoping for a good one.

JB

Does anybody read this? How about a comment?

Figure this was a good time to ask cuz the algos are doing there things buying the reits after the death spiral they had going on yesterday afternoon - sucking in new shorts just to jam em today.
I want to say the DOW will be down 200 points today - I mean I saw a pig flying on my way to the office this morning. The bullishness out there is astounding so I remain stubbornly bearish.

JB

Greed is Good????

Where are we - but more importantly where are we going. I am a huge fan of Todd Harrison's website Minyanville and today he had a great random thought: "If I told you the tape would run 66.6% directly into the downtrend from the 2007 top—which happens to be a 50% retracement of the entire decline that begin at S&P 666—what would be you're preferred positioning?"

My reading of that thought is that he like I is fully expecting some sort of meaningful selloff. The S&P is up 11 out of the last 12 days - I have read in a few places tonight that we might not even pull back at all now - the market is in the sweet spot etc....Take AMZN today a sellside fire downgraded the name and it was down .34 cents - this after the stock has rallied some 40 bucks in the last 4 weeks - the bulls have not taken any heat in so long that they are not going to sell one share of anything - as a bear I must admit the strength of this tape is remarkable.
What can change this uberbullish tape? Certainly if the fed started to crash this easy money, dollar smashing party that would have an impact, obvioulsy some major geopolitical situation (think Iran - I pray this is not the catalyst), perhaps if some of the big firms just started downgrading some big names to the market (oh wait that happened today). Commerical RE is a big problem, everybody knows it perhaps that is why it is not hitting the market - I get that - maybe it should not hit the market but why not the REITS?? The REITS are firm although today gave up the ghost a little bit. I have positions in AVB, ACC,SPG,SRS and MPG so I pay close attention to that space.
5 or 6 deals tonight by the way - these deals have had zero impact on the market over the last 5 weeeks or so - I doubt tonight will be any different.
The VIX closed at 22 and change tonight - getting cheaper by the day - this in my opinion is a bearish signal - people are getting verrrrrrrrrrry comfortable on the long side.
Random thoughts
Im long the 180-170-160 butter in GS - come to papa
I have rolled the UAL 7 dollar buywrite 3 months in a row
Treasuries are just silly
PCLN and AMZN are sillier
The Blackhawks are just awesome

JB

Minor Slippage

We have minor league selling action this morning - stocks are dropping gently SPUZ are down a whopping $4 points. Slamazon (AMZN) is down a couple bucks this AM - just presenting the next great buying opportunity - insert tongue in cheek right now.
If I was long would I sell into this minor selloff - no way!! The market always bounces back.
The only thing going for my call of a top is that people always assume that the weeks leading up to thanksgiving and Xmas are bullish - if I know one thing its that nothing is certain.

JB

Silliness

Meredith Whitney (bank analyst) mad some comments this afternoon about how she has become quite bearish and that the banks in her opinion are under capitalized. The SPUZ started dropping when she made these comments...they dropped a bit buy nothing major - the bald guy on bubblevision immediately castigated her and "called her out for non rigorous work" - this from a guy who has the "lightning round" and makes his decisions on stocks while throwing bull dolls at the camera in a split second - whatever - make your own decisions. Meredith sells her research to clients - why would she call it any other way than how she sees it - the other party needs advertisers for his website and his TV slot - you know in the Obama America Im kind of afraid to express these thoughts.
I read a story today which I find disconcerting - the SEIU (service employess union) is going to picket in front of Goldmans DC offices that they should give back their bonuses....see this is problematic - people read about Goldmans plan to pay enormous bonuses and people have read the snippets that GS was saved by the government and they feel its unfair - now GS has paid back its TARP investment (we wont talk about any FDIC backed bonds they might have sold) but its always gonna be there - they were saved by the government. When government and capitalism mix this is the result - the SEIU telling them to give back their bonuses "its not fair".
I am afraid that GS will be a victim of its own success - I would not be at all surprised in the future if the SEC starts hounding them, if the stock gets clobbered and they take themselves private - if its broken up into different entities etc.....
I wont even comment how insanely overbought this market is, interestingly today AMZN closed in the red...Turn those machines back on.
Im sticking with my call that today was the top - glutton for punishment.

JB

TOP in the SPX

1108 - TOP - why not? - I am making my call - no one is fading this market anymore - no one.

JB

Groundhog day

SPUZ up, Bonds up, Oil up, Gold up, Dollar down..
Did you see the movie with Bill Murray - Groundhog Day? This market is groundhog day.
I would imagine the beta masters will be leading the charge again today - you know the four letter usual suspects.

Trade em well,

JB

Crazy

SO we have a little selloff yesterday and today after a horrible trade balance number and another dissapointing consumer ocnfidence number we have the dow up100 points - or a total erasing of yesterdays move. AMZN,AAPL,GOOG, etc continue to lead the beta names to ever higher prices - these stocks are no more important to the averages then are any other names including JPM which acts like a ton of bricks. How AAPL can carry the entire techworld is beyond me - I believe the tech world is a zero sum game - AAPL wins, MSFT, RIMM, etc lose - but they are all melting up - its like Y2K all over again - and AMZN dont get me started it has a forward multiple of like 65 70 times now...kookoo kookoo.
On a total random note today I have listened to tunes by
John Mayer
Joe Jackson
Public Enemy
Taylor Swift

wierd

JB

Thoughts??

I dont have many this morning. The market is having some sort of reflexive bounce back from yesterdays drubbing (my tongue cant be any further in my cheek).
Complacency rules the day - watch out - its friday the 13th....

JB

Yawn

The market is selling off to the tune of $7 SPU points...not exactly the type of move that is going to inspire vol buyers - but a step in the right direction.
I want to give the award for the most overbought stock in my history of trading, AMZN - this thing is outrageous - does anyone not own this yet?? My partner says that markets like to shake people in and out of positions - the REITS are uber strong as this huge wave of refinancing is looming - markets want to push you to your maximum frustration point, to your breaking point and then when you cant take it anymore and you throw in the towel guess what happens? You are freaking "dead on balls accurate". The market has kind of failed at 1100 twice now - the way this tape is it would seem that one morning (perhaps tomorrow) we will walk in to see the SPUZ up 15 trading at 1105 and then we will never look back - now in order for that to happen we will have to push multiples on AMZN, GOOG, BIDU etc to 50-75 land but who gives a shit - never confuse a bull market with brains.
Trade of the day for me - I am buying Feb 16 calls in BAC and shorting stock slighlty more than delta neutral - the REITS are the obvious short for the coming CRE crash so be sneaky short the banks instead - bigger floats - harder to get whipped around by your back office pulling stock from you.

JB

Misery upon Misery

Im 36, I run a tiny hedge fund that does not pay me what I need to live but we just started 9 months ago - so I have to keep plugging away - besides I hear the job market aint great these days. When I was in my late 20s I made a bunch of dough trading but that well is running dry - or at least almost. I live in a world where most people have good incomes, take vacations all the time, drive the nicest cars, live in enormous houses etc....Im slipping, falling, starting to worry about every dollar and for good reason, Im the father of four wonderful kids that I need to provide for - I have to - I cant let them down or my wife. So I get up everyday at 545 AM to do the only thing I know , (or at least some days I know) trade. I buy and sell stocks, options, commodities, and bonds. If I make my investors money I make money - I need to be right about the market, about my arbitrage positions, about my timing, about everything. I report my progress ($$$) to my investors monthly but I know how Im doing every second of every minute of every day - from the seond I wake up at 545 AM, flip on my blackberry to see where stock futures are trading till the second I go to sleep at night and see what overseas markets are doing.
My fund has returned about 11% YTD, good but not great - I want great - remember Im trying to attract more capital - everybody loves a winner. We started off great - back when the big boys this year were shitting in their pants we were scooping up preferred shares and hedging with options at literally once in a lifetime prices, markets were hopping, up , down all around - but then about 3 months ago the markets became an orderly place again, stocks while reviled back when we were buying em became the objects of peoples adoration. So for the last three months we have sat here and not lost money but battled each and every months to survive - b/c I am so bearish I cant see straight. When you are working with a bias which I most certainly am its tuff, but it is impossible for me to be bullish right now when I read the macro news, state budgets are disastrous, employment sucks (just tonight AMAT and ADBE cut more jobs in the beloved tech sector), the dollar is being kicked to the curb, treasuries are stubbornly bid, and gold is a G-D damned moon shot. And oh yeah stocks have had the sharpest recovery since the great depression - how bout a little yin and yang - how bout a gut wrenching selloff once in a while - how bout some fucking fear - how bout the fact that the market is led around like a little bitch by the likes of AAPL,AMZN,BIDU,GS,GOOG and other insanely overvalued companies is not a good thing. I am not a dumb guy, Im not a genius either - is it wrong for me to believe that after 7 days of rallying in a row that we could get a monster downday - I mean who comes to work everyday and says buy em, buy em buy em - (ok besides Cramer)? Dont get me wrong I have longs as well and have long positions in companies capital structure but as far as the overall averages go we are so due for a pullback - one that lasts, that shakes people, not a one day wonder, not a week , but a month or two of pain.
Bottom line is once again Im struggling at the outset of a month and I hope I'll be able to pull it out - but the stress ah the stress. I love trading and I hate it - but I tell you if I ever become wealthy running this hedge fund I will call it quits - because that means I have done right by my investors, by my family, and by myself and then Ill sit back, stare at the ocean and probably just start crying and hopefully when Im sitting there my wife and kids will be next to me b/c doing this for a living aint easy on them either.

JB

Veterans Day

My Grandfather (rest in peace) was in the US army in WWII, not on the front lines or anything, too bad he was not given the opportunity to kick some Nazi ass but his assignment was certainly safer, but regardless he was sent overseas away from his wife, my grandmother, away from his business, parents, brothers,sisters - his life. Knowing him I doubt he complained, he probably felt it was an honor and his duty - thats the kind of guy he was - damn I wish I was like that. Thats my closest connection to a serviceman/woman.
Just thought it right to think about him today (even though I do almost everyday - and wish I could talk to him).

To all the Veterans - I salute you and thanks.

JB

24/7 Meltup

We wake up to find the SPUZ piercing the 1100 dollar level and why not?? The dollar is being sacrificed once again, "animal spirits" are running wild and all is well in the US.
The momo names are gettting jiggy with it early on here AAPL, AMZN , GOOG, BIDU, GS you get the drift. Watch Macys (M) today as it reported earnings early this morning - they are a non target/walmart type place that might give us a clue as to how retailers that dont sell you the stuff you absolutely need everyday are faring.
I have to hand it to the Obama administration they are proving to be quite apt at bubble blowing, markets have not acted this well since Easy Al was running the fed.....Al facilitated the biggest housing bust of all time, what bust will Bernanke bring us? At this point the only thing that can derail constant stock market gains would be if the printing press at the mint breaks down and the part they need takes 6 months to make.
As far as trying to predict when this will end I have given up as I beleive many bears have. Just listen to the bald guy - he has all the answers.

JB

nada,zilch,nutin

After a huge rally yesterday the futures this morning were down a whopping 4 points which as soon as the regular session casino opened was seen as a great entry point and the market promlty rallied, we have since reversed those gains and see the down down less than 1 point. narrow, narrow ranges. Priceline is up an eyepopping $31 dollars - or %18 today - they had good earnings I guess. It opened up $20 and then just chughed higher - it appears that this is a heavily shorted name.....Who buys a stock that opens up 20 and expects to make money?? I guess smart people.
I was informed by my Dad that Ken Fisher expects the S&P to get to 1300 by February - I guess that most certainly could happen but lets just consider the source this is a guy who runs a long stock portfolio, who writes in Forbes periodically and is considered by many to be a permabull.
his point of view is about the most bullish I have heard.
Anyway - today was a real snoozer - the decrease in volatility of the indeces today was surprising to me.
later
JB

Sickening

The notstop party in equities is really heating up today as people are lathered up to buying AAPL, GOOG, GS any and all commodity plays as the dollar is CRUSHED yet again. CIT, CAPMARK chap 11, FNM, FRE, 10.2% unemplyment - total nonfactors - people are happy to chase stocks....risk is no longer a four letter word, since Buffet announced his purchase of BNI the market has rallied almost 6% in a strait line. the SPUZ have been sitting at their highs of up $18 for the last half hour - bears are once again crushed and bulls are sipping margaritas. I cant think of any good reasons to be excited about the US economy - there is 3 trillion in stimulus out there and jobs are still disappearing - what will it take? The vix is plunging, bt not as much as you'd expect on an uber bullish tape day like today.
Last week I commented that trend lines had been violated I know now why I dont believe in charts - that violation has vanished like a fart in the wind.

JB

Geting hosed here

So last night after another 5 banks were shut by the FDIC Friday the SPUZ open unched and proceed to trade up $11 in a strait line overnight - rally brought to you by a further crushing of the dollar....WTF??? Simply insane if you ask me - simply insane.
AAPL, GOOG, GS, leading the charge....banks are way underperforming today - who needs them we have the bank of last resort Uncle Sam helping everybody but the people who need it most.
The VIX has gotten smashed in the last week - I am buying mroe vol here (PUTS AND CALLS) - that strategy has worked well for me. I would be loading up on vol in the REITS....stormy seas coming in that space.

over and out

JB

oh boy

OK - forget about the fact that FNM lost 19 billion in the last quarter and needs another 15 billion from the fed...forget about that little 34 billion dollar problem, FNM is now going to rent the houses they have foreclosed upon to the defaulters...so now the US government is going to be getting these calls..."uh Mr. Obama this is Mr. Jones at 6500 Main street, my toilet is backed up, can you send someone out to fix it..". And yet we continue to let the "banks" live in this fantasy land that they are adequately capitalized, FNM is saying we cant even sell these houses (collateral) if we wanted to so we are just gonna sit on em (cuz they can). What a freaking mess, yet the bald guy is saying housing has bottomed....how could it have when FNM is now becoming a landlord?
Unemplyment rate as of this morning is 10.2%....uh Mr. Obama - where is the yes we can stuff? yes we can go to 15% unemployment - hope there are lots of extra bedrooms in the whitehouse.
The SPUZ are selling off $7 before the opening - this market is so crazy it will probably rally on this jobs number...
Anyway my wife is running a 1/2 marathon - she is training for it and if she can do it Im gonna be real impressed but I dont want her to become an everyday runner, its bad for her health in the long run...kness, bladder falling out - that kinda stuff. So lets do the marathon and then limit running to the important stuff, like to the bathroom or to the plane....

JB

Confused yet??

This market is wacko...I guess we are rallying today b/c of CSCO, the ability to price the Hyatt IPO, and jobless claims coming at 511k (10k better than expected...) Yesterdays closing hour was so bearish, and then you wake up to find this move, SPUZ up 10?? Remember extreme volatility is a sign of a top or a bottom....being that we are up 60% from the lows....you know what I think this volatility is signaling.
Anyways - have a good day.

JB

Wierd, wierd market

The VIX has gone ballistic, CIT has gone bankrupt, IPOs are being canceled,serious momo leaders are having a very hard time stabilizing, AAPL, GS, etc....but looking at a large gap lower this morning in the SPUZ of about $12 bucks the market rallied all the way back and closed higher.
The powers that be cued a Warren Buffet take over of Burlington Northern this morning, he says this takeover says "hes all in on the American economy". uhhhh - hmmmm - you have been all in continuosly for a really long time. And to signal how embedded he is in the CNBC geshtalt he has decided to split his stock 50-1, allowing daytraders everywhere to play in Warrens world. No disrespect to Warren Buffet but for him to go "all in" on a railway at 80+ years is not market moving news from my vantage point. JNJ cutting 7k jobs....thats the news that just wont go away.
Banks in England (lloyds and RBS) getting more UK bailout money..GEs CDS (credit default swaps) widening (remember how big GE capital is) that kinda stuff that is the news Im focused on.
I exited most of my upside play in RIMM today as the stock rallied nearly $4, in other market action today preferred shares were very heavy, Metlifes preferred dropped $1.29...I dipped into that in a small way and put a hedge on in the common shares.
I bought some Ford as well today...dont color me a bull or anything - I added to my index shorts as a hedge....

JB

Torn

Im confused - I feel that we face a macro economic hell coming up but Im loving what I see out of Ford....Im not an analyst and even if I were I think getting thru their earnings report and financials would be tuff but it just seems like the company is making good progress almost every quarter.
I definitely think the companies not running to Uncle Sam for some cash resonates with people it sets them apart in a positive way, but more than that they are making products that people want and are buying as their market share numbers are showing. So I want to get long the name in a meaningful way but am afraid that if the market takes it on the chin there will be no where to hide.....buying the stock and selling Jan 7 1/2 calls covers you for a 10% drop in the stock but also caps you up 10%....although a 10% standstill return for 3 months or so aint to shabby..thats 40% annualized last time I checked. If the market gets tagged nothing will be safe...nothing - but I do like what Im hearing from Ford.
The market had a volatile session and at the end of the day the end results were pretty muted. I guess the big NEWS was the chapter 11 filing of CIT - put yourself in the shoes of the people who use CIT to fund their businesses - the sense of angst and not knowing must be awful. As an aside the treasury is gonna lose its 2.3 billion dollar tarp investment in this thing...it was so obvious back when they made the investment that the company was gonna need to file chap 11 eventually but it is this governments way to avoid taking its medicine. Oh well - whats 2.3 billion right?
Another noteworthy event today was Citigroup downgrading RIMM to the biggest 4 letter word on wall st. SELL. The stock fropped another $3 bucks or so...the stock seems washed out to me - so I bought some stragnles in there (puts and calls) but more calls than puts so I have an upside slant to it. Options seem relatively inexpensive in there considering how the stock moves.
I still am quite bearish overall as stocks like AAPL, AMZN , GOOG,BIDU still have huge room to drop, huge. AMZN is the biggest joke of em all.
Anyway sorry for the disjointed way this blog was put together.

JB

What can you say??

Market bottoms and tops are made with lots and lots of volatility at least thats why my partner has told me. Id say up 200 yesterday and down 200 today means that we have seen the highs for the year. IPOs are being withdrawn which is a terrible sign, AEI last night was withdrawn.
This action is suiting my positions just fine. George Soros if I read correctly was talking up the dollar this morning, that is another way of him saying rally over. Soros knows a think or two about currencies - think brittish pound. Oh well, cant imagine the bulls will be able to rally the troops on a friday such as this - but hey you never really know.

To all you trick or treaters out there - Happy Halloween.

JB

Beast

This market is a beast a total beast. Biggest gain for the DOW since July - yesterday morning PIMCO, CRAMER, ROUBINI they were all out in force saying we are going lower the rally is over, CRAMER said we go to 9500 - today he says the bears overreached again - whatever that means - I was covering stuff yesterday not laying into my shorts and Im a bear.
No matter - today we rocketed higher. Yesterday afternoon Goldman cameout and lowered its GDP expectations and that caused a weak market to cascade lower - anyone else think that maybe they were just laying a trap hoping to get people short and then when the GDP # came out better than expected today they would crush the shorts??
Today could have been some window dressing for the end of the month...or maybe it was people actually believing a GDP # that printed during the largest government stimulus period of all time, cash for clunkers etc...The number that got ignored again today was that 530k people (worse than expected by the way) filed initital unemployment claims. When is that gonna end?? How can team Obama say they are doing a good job when these types of numbers are seen every week...The data on vacant houses in the US is stunnig right now as well 18.9 million homes...Houston we have a problem, a huge problem...Fundamentally I remain as bearish as ever - yesterday we covered a bunch of stuff with it being the end of the month and all as fundies mark up their books - but Im so bearish I cant really see straight. Except for the true wallstreeters ( I am a trader, not an ibanker, not a broker, but a trader of my own and my investors capital - and never a wall streeter) who have thrown themeselves a government sponsored party this year the country is still struggling, massively, and wall st amazingly convinced the US government to take on all the risk....The future is scary.

JB

Boo

Markets are getting a little October scare the last few days - an orderly scare but hey beggers cant be choosers. I have been reducing some short exposure and actually added a long today, Private Bank - chicago based bank thats down over 50% in the last 3 days - and last night sold almost 20 million shares in a secondary offering at 8.5 - I got a little on the offering and added more in the open market. I remain immensely bearish in the longterm but am lightening up here on the bearplays a tad...Im doing this via buying call premium - so in case the downmove keeps going I will still make money. I have to mention that AMZN in my opinion is teetering here on a ten dollar smackdown...(121.48) its soooooooooooooooooooo overvalued and momo stocks are getting ruffed up a bit - this one will not be immune in my opinion.

By the way a few more days and Starbucks will have those red cups - feelgood.

JB

Damage

There was some real damage done to some serious momo names today.

LVS -1.75, 11%
WYNN -6.94, 11%
BIDU -49.31, 11%
X -3.17, 8%

The averages hung in there relatively well considering the damage done in the momo names.
When stocks like BIDU are dropping 11% in a trading session it shows you where the stock renting momo hedgies are hiding. Moves like this are quite possible in names like GOOG, AAPL (even though fundamentals are awesome), AMZN (insane valuation) and GS. Being short the market still Im nervous about a move back up as managers mark up their books into month end. I butterflied off some putspreads today and am actively looking for names to buy volatility in. Playing one new issue tonight, Vitamin Store, and one secondary in Private bank (PVTB) that stock has dropped by over 50% in the last few days - thats why I like that deal - much less risk than a few days ago. Random thought: Treasuries are an outstanding long term short - think about it - governments revenues down - expenses (unemplyment benefits,stimulus package)way up - bond issuance way up - this is one of the ones that I see as just freaking obvious - thats why I have bought TBT (short gov bond etf) in my fund, my personal account and my kids accounts.
One last thing - I am a father of four, three girls and a boy. I love em all dearly. I have been bathing my son his whole life - except when he was a newborn and I was afraid to. He's 5 now and I have been giving him his bath for a long time. After his bath, its PJs, teethbrushing, book or a story (if I can think of a good one) and then I lay in bed with him till he (we) falls asleep. I know, I know its not good for him - dont worry he can go to sleep on his own but you know what Hes only gonna be my 5 year old son once in his life and snuggling with him is right up there on my list of all time favorite things.

We'll see what tomorrow brings in market land - There are still a bunch of earnings reports...but they have not seemed to matter tremendously much.

I think the REITS are interesting as far as tape watching goes these days , Im watching, AVB, MPG, O, SLG, SPG.

Good night

JB

Seasons are a changing

One of the major zen beta masters, BIDU, has stubbed its toe today dropping $54 today - it opened down about $75 this morning - I had a ten lot of puts in there - which made us some nice coin - helping us claw back a little closer to even for the month.
Its surprising to me that BIDUs pooping is only hitting the other beta names for 1 -3%.
But thats the market for ya - surprising. Id say the most troubling things for the bulls in this tape is the weakness of bank stocks and weakness in treasuries.
We'll see how the rest of the day playsout....never underestimate the bulls.

JB

Strange action

Banks are weakening rather noticeably and SPUZ are bid and are rallying by 1% after a flat opening. Credit quality seems to be worsening form what I read. AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, are studs once again leading the way. Reits are rallying which is in my opinion just nuts, the losses that are starting to flow out of CMBS loans are enormous...cap rates are going up, vacancies are increasing etc....I feel like REITS are perhaps the short of the year at these prices (AVB@75.35, SPG@70.6 etc....)
Treasuries are getting whacked , stronger economy or people getting worried about US credit?? That remains to be seen but you know what I think.
This rally today in equities is suspect

JB

quiet opening shaping up

The SPUZ are up $2.5 premarket in very lite trade. Very little to report as far as major movers this AM. The dollar is weakening again, so oil is reflexively trading higher as are equities...

Nothing to see here.....

JB

Recap

Markets took it on the chin today with the small cap Russell 2000 leading the way with a 2% bruising. AMZN turned in an absolutely knock your socks off day up 27% to 118.5 - unreal - I know exactly one person with a kindle - but I do know lots of people who buy stuff at zappos which is an AMZN company. As a friend of mine would ask do all of these people who buy stuff at AMZN send in the sales tax required to their respective states?? As the states are more and more stretched and AMZN is doing 35+ billion in sales watch for the states to start making noise.
Ben Bernankes inflate everything at the cost of the dollar strategy was given the bird today - oil,bonds, equities all lower - treasuries look to be breaking down - which while totally logical could cause massive problems for a government that is selling like 100 billion a weak in bonds.
Just think about it - if the government wants to keep selling all of these bonds they might need to create a little panic just to get a flight to "quality" bid again. Oh boy my mind is getting excessively twisted.
Good day P&L wise for the home team but still down for the month. Working hard, working hard - but alas right now not the results Im looking for.

Peace

JB

Im gonna tout a position

the stock market has recovered 60%+ from the lows - this is based upon some sort of economic recovery. In an economic recovery (of which im totally unconvinced) you would think that shipping companies would do well. I am long warrants (or call options) to buy shares in a stock whose symbol is SHIP, the warrants are SHIPW. The warrants allow you to buy the stock at $6.5 until september of 2011. All you have to pay for that right is 22 cents. if the stock stays here unitl 2011 you lose 22 cents, but if its above $6.5 - paydirt.... its an insanely cheap play, one that I own a bunch of. Its something you can buy and forget about , 22 cents.....


JB

does anyone know

The last time Microsoft gapped higher by 8% premarket? Well if someone asks you tomorrow you can say Oct 23rd 2009. Today would be day 12/14 if (did I really type if?) the SPUZ close higher.
AMZN is up about $16 premarket and in this market is probably a better buy than a sale.
I am having a ruff go this month - this bull is goring me and my investors - a managable loss thus far this month but a loss nonetheless. My wife says why cant you just be long the market? Damn good question. I see the macro news flow and it is all so negative - by inlarge companies are reporting good earnings with only the truly exceptional ones showing top line growth - the rest are showing good numbers cuz they fired huge amounts of workers. So I dont know how that is a positive in the long run. Permabulls like Ken Fisher in forbes say this V recovery will keep going - mind you hes always long and for a decade watched as the market returned zero point zero. This bullrun is taking a lot of people out of this business - the commercial real estate situation is still very dangerous, there was a story on Bloomberg yesterday that the Tishman familys big NYC apartment complex will be in default shortly to the tune of 1 billion dollars the biggest default in commercial real estate history - ok isolated case right? But what does that do to the value of the building next door and the one next door to that? Yet the reits are among the best performers out there - and you could say OK they will just ride it out but if property values fall and the new operator can underuct your rent by 20% then waht do you do - then you have a real cash crunch. oh well - sell your properties and buy AMZN and MSFT thats what you do.

JB

Just wanted to mention........

Jobless claims came in at 521k today (worse than expected - as if that matters) 521k initial jobless claims - and once again due to a monkeyhammer job on the greenback stocks closed at their highs (again). Is there a point where the dollar going down becomes a negative for equities? Ummm - I guess not. Do you think the Europeans are gonna be happy when people are not traveling to Europe due to a ridiculous exchange rate? Barry Obama is apparently not concerened. As a politician the only thing he probably cares about is getng reelected - which leads me to a question - since he hast taken office the market has exploded higher - he is almost done with his first year - we all know he will want the market to have a good "performance" in the year leading up to his (G-D forbid) second term, so at some point does he need to tell his boys at our favorite bulgebracket firms to take the pedal off the SPUZ so that we get a correction only for him to reinstruct a rally in year 3 of his term? Remeber now that these boys on the street have been bought by the US they have to listen to the boss. Food for thought.
One last thought as I saw the headlines scroll by about the pay levels as dictated by the pay czar, do you think maybe just maybe the ladies and gents on the Senate banking committee should have some of their wages garnished from the years where they let these "banks" destroy the capitalist system? Cmon Barney Frank - give a little back, you too Senator Dodd - its only fair.
Anyway - its about 9 Pm Chicago time - any guesses how much the market will be up tomorrow? Ill go with 1.5% - any other wagers?
It felt so 1999ish when afterhours AMZN was trading higher by $14 - that badboy is sporting a PE multiple north of 60 I think - good stuff, good stuff. They still just sell crap right? books, CDs (Dad, whats a CD?) useless crap that your soon to be pulled credit card lets you buy for no apparent reason other than that you are bored. Tomorrow morning the king of all Nasdaq names reports, MSFT - you know the maker of the operating system that keeps freezing up on the computer Im using - but good job on excel thats a good program. So a monopoly reports tomorrow, I guess if INTC's earnings were good (which is lower than its announcement day) you would assume MSFT would be as well.
Anywho...just want to say once again thanks to the triumvant of dollar terror (O,B,G) for pushing those gas prices up to near $3 again - thanks - thats what us "hard working Americans" are really looking for.

JB

Hey lets go buy a new iphone

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/average-unemployment-period-hits-all-time-record-high-6-months

or not


JB

Moodys is a Piece of shit but......

this morning they actually said something semi intelligent. If the US does not cut its deficit its in jeopardy of losing its AAA rating which allows it to sell bonds to the Chinese at ridiculous 30yr yields in the 4.5% neighborhood. You know what else had a AAA rating? The lion share of the mortgage CDOs that blew up all the banks (which we so graciously saved) last year.
If I was a big investment bank and in particular GS you know what would be on my conviction buy list? Some really freakin good security...The anger towards these guys is palpable - or is that just in my head? Im torn by how I feel about GS on the one hand as a capitalist I feel like they should be able to make as much as they want and pay as much as they want but then I realize why I hate em - cuz they cheated capitalism - they got a bunch of money from Uncle Sam and they are truly imbedded in government which gives them immense influence - screw em. I think Jamie Dimon is the best of em all.

JB

Adios People

This blog is being put to rest for the indefinite future, I make my self sick with my idiotic obsession with this market ever resting and digesting a 65% move from the low. The lehman debacle messed with my head and never did I imagine that we would go back to a world where in after hours trading stocks like AAPL would trade up 14 dollars. Im pissed off Im sick and tired of putting my thoughts down everyday only to look like a fool constantly. My fund is profitable this year but would certainly be doing better had I not been burdened with my bearish interpretation of the world around me.

Wishing you luck and adios

JB

At this point...

I just want the market to get hammered so that the baldguy on CNBC will be wrong, discredited and maybe he'll stop squaking for a bit. Working for GE and being an ex GS guy he is on the inside he knows whats going on - I feel like maybe he has the daily script everymorning. The SPUZ are attacking the 1100 dollar level and why not? We have not retraced 65% of the S&Ps move - and we have seen that stocks actual movements have no baring on the daily relelntless buying of stock futures with fridays 8 point decline now put in the "pause that refreshes" downmove.
Everything felt so exhausted friday - like stocks just needed a breather - but here we are again with breathless buyers of any and all things stocks. Not that it matters but the new issue and secondary calendar is jam packed with offerings almost daily.

more useless thoughts later

JB

more of the same

Luckily I covered my futures on the initial dip and have now watched them rocket higher as GE trades lower - how can you have an economic recovery without GE trading higher? I shouldnt think of such things.
I believe today is the anniversary of the 1987 crash - that is significant for no reason what so ever.
I saw one line in Barrons this weekend that struck a chord - "why we ought to be wary of the good fortune of a lucky few". This is what I have been trying to express for a long time and Alan Abelson did it for me. The banks (BAC,C,GS,JPM,MS,WFC) have befitted massviely from the current FED policies and the TARP program. They have an enormously steep yield curve which allows them to make fat profits and they were given huge sums of money to plug holes in their balance sheets. So to the people working at those institutions who are on the right side of things right now the world is on the mend, they are getting large bonuses again and hell yeah we are gonna throw a party in the stock market. What about the rest of us? How bout the people who have seen their jobless beneifts exhausted? How bout people who worked at the car dealerships that were closed? No wonder this is the most hated rally of all time - only a very few people are along for the ride - for the majority of Americans things have not gotten better in the last 7 months of this equity rally. Foreclosures till loom, jobs are scarce, paycuts are commonplace. So I thank Alan Abelson for putting it into words.

JB

Inexplicable

Since 1 AM the SPUZ have rallied about $12 bucks. I would assume this happened on very light volume as some Asian markets rallied or something like that. Did anyone notice over the weekend that AMZN and WMT are now in some sort of a pricewar? 2 thoughts,1) AMZN is an enormous company to be in WMT's sites..2)AMZN - no one beats WMT - so good luck.
I shorted some S&P minis at 1088.5 this AM, not a big believer in this overnight rally but no surprise there.
Yesterday was a beautiful day, watched 2 of my kids play soccer and chased an almost two year old around while they played, did this while my wife was home with the oldest who has, yes I know ewww, LICE. As the second soccer game winded down I took the baby with me and my sister who came to watch her neice play (thanks for coming) took the other two home. I caught the tailend of an engangement party for an old friend of mine. My mother inlaw has a saying you have to go for the happy occassions if you'd go for the funeral (or something like that) and I totally agree. So I wished the couple well saw some friends I havent seen in years (that always feels good) and headed home.
So here we are ready to go - Id say the momo clues are still AAPL, AMZN,GS,GOOG,BIDU and keep half an eye on crude oil...

JB

Pavlovs

Dogs are confused, 230 pm looked like a rally was coming but alas it didnt and the SPUZ closed DOWN- I repeat down!!
Im not gonna get all excited that maybe we have topped but I had two good days in a row and I can go into the weekend feeling pretty relaxed (ok kinda relaxed, ok not relaxed at all)
Earnings will continue to roll in next week - stay tuned.

JB

30 minutes to go

The rally should be coming right about now....once again stocks arent going down well so what do you do?

BUY EM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GOOG up everything else down. Crude oil is getting mighty close to $80 - you can send your thank you notes to Ben Bernanke.

Happy weekend all

JB

Midmornin

Kind of a quiet down day, everything is down except GOOG which is up an eye popping 4.6%.
Got 5k shares of an IPO today which popped about a buck and then we sold.
BAC and GE I guess are disappointments. Tread carefully

JB

Mornin line

SPUZ down $7

GE, BAC, IBM are heavy off of the earnings reports, GOOG is up 3%.
Today is options expiration day - anyone wanna bet on AAPL 190 straddle.....step right up.
I looked at a bunch of charts last night ( i dont believe in em) but looks to me that stocks have gotten right back to where they were when they blew up last fall. I dont know if that means anything but just seemed kinda interesting.

JB

An intersting piece from www.zerohedge.com

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Update: Week Of October 14

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2009 20:29 -0500

• Agency
• Debt
• Dollar
• Federal Reserve
• Federal Reserve System
• FX
• Liquidity
• Liquidity Swaps
• MBS
• securities
• Shorts
• Swaps
• the Fed
• Treasury

Total Federal Reserve balance sheet assets for the week of October 14 of $2,128 billion ($9 billion higher compared to the prior week's $2,119 billion). Fed assets consisted of:

• Securities held outright: $1,608 billion (an increase of $75.3 billion MoM, resulting from $13 billion in new Treasury purchases, $52 billion increase in MBS and $11 billion in Agency Debt), or $13 billion increase sequentially
• Net borrowings: unchanged at $289 billion, as no update in the current week.
• Float, liquidity swaps, Maiden Lane and other assets: $231.8 billion, a $4 billion decrease based on a $252 million reduction in CPFF and a $6.2 billion reduction in FX liquidity swaps, bringing these to a fresh 52 week low. At $43 billion in liquidity swaps, there is little room left for the Fed to force foreign CB to keep pressing on the dollar. Keep an eye out on this datapoint as it is probably one of the better leading indicators of when foreign CBs start covering their dollar shorts (and are in need of dollar funding by the Fed).
  

Foreign holdings increased by $4.1 billion to 2,865 billion.

5

JB

Something I have been doing lately

This is totally unrelated to the markets. There have been times throughout the days where I look and see something my kids are doing and I just want to take a snapshot so that Ill always be able to remember it.
1)Alyssa riding her tricycle around the house

2)Will holding Alyssas hand and walking her up to the house

3)Jessica and Emily talking before bed

Someday they will be grown up, and I wont see them everyday and while now sometimes they are driving me nuts, I know down deep that these days,weeks, years are irreplaceable and that their cute little carefree lives will be things of the past as they grow into adults.

JB

hmm

I made a little (a very little) money today - thanks G-D. After the close GOOG is rocking higher, IBM is not - which one will matter? - dumb question. MPG rocked and rolled today, if you recall yesterday morning I pointed out that Apaloosa partners had bought 8% of the stock. Buywrites look really fat in that name, like 20% for a month or so.
This continues to be a very tuff market to TRADE. Its a long only fest. Some big momo names faltered today but it really didnt matter to the broader market, all the beta names were lower, all of em.
I want to harp on a point once more - take a look at HOVNP , its a Hovnanian preferred trading at 21% of par, 21%. It is trading 1.5 over the common stock for petes sake. Insanely cheap. That continues to be one of my larger positions. This is a company that is redeeming debt on a regular basis. Oh well - more for me.

One last comment today is the 9th day in the row the SPUZ have closed higher...9 times, 9 times.

Tomorrow will undoubtedly be 10

JB

The SPUZ are on crack

AAPL down
GS down
GOOG down
BIFU down
AMZN down
C down
JPM down

SPUZ up .25. I would say this is getting weird but I have cried wolf just a few to many times. Oil is rocketing higher today as the dollar strengthens....uh oh - decoupling??

this is too weird - just too weird

JB

Im at a loss

Market screams yesterday on earnings from INTC.

Ticker Pre report price Current price

INTC 20.49 20.82
AA 14.15 14.13
JNJ 62.53 60.73
JPM 45.5 46.65

Do these look like massive moves to you people? The SPUZ move in their own world - the underlying equities are hardly impressive. I dont get it.

Anyone out there have an explanation??

JB

Hoopla

For all the hoopla INTC is up.46 cents today - the market up 1.4% nary a downtick. JNJ down again. We have hit the 10k level on the Dow - and people are saying buy me anything, anything. Price is irrelevant b/c in 5 minutes it will be higher, I have to give Bernanke credit due to his printing press the market cant selloff for even 5 minutes - way to go Ben - ill thank you for $7 loaves of bread in a few years.
JPM has done nothing since gapping higher by $1.38. GOOG and GS are kicking bear ass today. What can I say? Should I even suggest that JPM is trading heavy in my opinion. Why wold any one listen to me?? Maybe when I see a sign in a bank window that they will lend you whatever you want to trade from the longside we'll know this manical buying of equities is over. Risk is still a 4 letter word and I sure would like to see the longs get fucked here for a few hours.

JB

Tuff environment

A big gap opening and then just a minor fade - limited trading opportunities (just the way Obama wants it). His version of responsibility on Wall St. is his boys, JPM,GS etc gunning the market 24/7. Richard Russel put the following in his thoughts this AM The following is from the latest issue of Business magazine: "Bright, eager, and unwanted. While unemployment is ravaging just about every part of the global work force, the most enduring harm is being done to young people who can't grab onto the first rung of the career ladder.

"Affected are a range of young people from high school dropouts, to college grads, to newly minted lawyers and MBAs across the developed world from Britain to Japan. One indication in the US -- the employment rate for 16 to 24 year-olds has climbed to more than 18%, from 13% a year ago. For people just starting their careers, the damage may be deep and lasting."

Nonetheless Wall St. continues to throw itself a party, JNJ, CIT, AA - who even remembers these....


JB

Gap opening

We have a large one this morning - there is nothing to indicate that we will selloff cuz we never do, but this would be a prime chance for bulls to unload stock positions on excited buyers - but why would/should they? JPM should be a momentum clue - INTC is locked it wont budge much from its opening price in my opinion. I shorted JPM stock against my calls so Im hoping it trades back down so I can take a scalp but am perfectly hedged if it keeps running.
The zen beta masters will be flying this morning as etrade,scotttrade,schwab, and fidelity market orders chase them at the opening.
Humbling this business is - truly humbling. I could rail away against this rally but why bother - I can do that again tomorrow when we go up again, and the next day , and the next, and the next...

JB

INTC trumps JNJ

INTC puts out a good number last night which has totally trumped JNJ's bad number - see all that matters is how the earnings are received. These are two large US companies that do business everywhere - and do it well. The markets rosie colored glasses are getting fogged up as players wake up lathered up to buy buy buy. JPM beat the number by .30 cents??? huh - where are the analysts - the stock is up about 3.5% on that - I am long a strangle in there so Im shorting some JPM stock this am against the call component of the strangle.
One thing I find amusing is CHK's 3% rally in the last two days in the face of a 7% decline in natgas futures in the same time period - "dont bother me with the facts".
Heres an interesting nugget I discovered in an SEC filing this AM, someone has accumulated an 8% stake in MPG, the guy is a vulture investor...interesting.
Random thought of the morning - I sure hope INTC's ability to sell chips gets a bid in HOV preferred....I know bizarre.

By the way market looks up BIG right now with SPUZ up $13.5 - as the king of pop said "dont stop till you get enough"

JB

Why bald guy why?

He is attacking Meredith Whitney for downgrading GS - calling her Meredith Splash Whitney - maybe he is upset b/c she is taking profits on a great call to be long and he wants the stock to go higher? Maybe b/c down deep he knows she is right that stocks have gone to far to fast...I know that is blasphemy in the current context. People are clinging to stocks like a baby to its blanket.
A few months ago people were lined up outside of banks to take out cash, today they are lined up outside of Schwab offices furiously filling out margin agreements. Go figure. How will this all end?? If I only knew....


JB

Damn they are good

The Bulls didnt waste much time snapping up the SPUZ, they reversed their $6 point (massive) decline and are now flat on the day. GS and JNJ have not budged so I guess my theory that they are important to the market is shot...Nothing is important to this market on the downside but trust me if INTC says anthing even remotely bullish the buyers are gonna go crazy. So once team Obama has succeeded blowing up the stock bubble there will be one problem - our dollars will be best used for toilet paper - cuz they aint gonna buy much.


JB

A little slide

The SPUZ are down $6, JNJ is dragging the DOW down a bit. GS is being stung by Meredith Whitneys downgrade to the tune of $4.5. Banks in general are weak except for Citibank that beacon on strength. REITS are a bit weaker as is the greenback.
One would have to assume that the bulls will try and rally the troops at some point today - watch GS and JNJ as important clues - their ability to bounce is important to the bulls playbook.

JB

Go time

The earnings season gets busy today - JNJ just came out - stock looks flattish on the report thus far. Tonight we have INTC - this is a biggy as it is significant because its chips make the world go round. For traders the earnings matter less than the reaction to the earnings. Its no secret stocks have been on a bull run - a sell the news reaction is a possibility - but right now the tape is a firmer than a Dallas Coyboy's cheerleaders stomach. So watch how JNJ and INTC trade in the next couple days, Alcoa has not been able to muster any strength off its report.
In other news, Meredith Whitney downgrades the king of crash, GS today. I have not seen the report but the timing is interesting as Goldman's earnings loom in the next few days, thursday I think. Whats interesting about Meredith in my opinion is that she is not just a spreadsheet analyst she seems to get market psychology. Her calls usually get a fair amount of credence so watch GS which is slippinng in early prints by about $3.4.
Finally just wanna give a shoutout to my Blackhawks, who came into the second period of last nights game down 5-0 vs a tuff Calgary Flames team. They scored 6 unanswered goals and won the game, never give up and try your hardest at all times. Very impressive!

JB

I cant wait

To see the market plummet in the 2nd half of the Presidents 1st and only term. He im convinced is a persona, he is like John Gosselin - just a guy that people have turned into an interest story. Obama had a chance to reverse the horrid economic policies of the last 25 years - Mr. Responsibility - but he has instead chosen a path of recklessness - oummeling the dollar, blowing the deficits out, anything to avaoid the pain, and whats funny is that everywhere besides the flicks and ticks of my qoutron there still is massive pain. Foreclosures, jobloss, state governments that are broke.
Oh well - I wish I could have my vote back.

JB

The fed is closed today

Perhaps Mr. Bernanke is getting a shave and a haircut today - resting from a 6 month period of shoving liquidity down the the throat of just about everything - if the SPUZ fall today it can only be b/c he is not there to offer more liquidity to the marketplace. Now more than likely the SPUZ will run back to the highs but there was a very large seller in there in the 1075 area - perhaps a real seller. They could turn lower for the day - I know shocking.

JB

I know it

The SPUZ are being manipulated, they are being held up by unnatural forces as the banks continue to try and offload their issues on the public. Since the 9.8% unemployment print 6 trading days ago the SPUZ have rallied 62 points or almost 6.2% in a strait line - no pull backs infact the SPUZ have not had a lower closing since 6 trading days ago. 3/4 horseman are positive today but only one is powering higher, GOOG, AMZN is actually lower.
The shit banks C, BAC are higher today, REITS are unchanged but what goes higher no matter what? The S&P 500 futures they are so well bid - every second of every day - as if someone knows where they are gonna close? Once again I just want to thank Pres. Obama for making sure that Wall St. does not act irrsponsibly - I hope the noble prize is denominated in Gold as he has insured the end of the dollar. What a jackass!

JB

whats the secret??

Are all of these negative macro economic stories BS? Is Cal really operating with a surplus? Are jobs being added and the government is lying? Is commercial real estate already on the mend? Are all of the trillions of bonds that the US govt needs to sell sold already? Has GS created an algorithm that prevents them from ever having a losing trade? Did CIT find funding? Does AIG have the money to pay the govt the billion it owes them next month? Is the baldguy in cahoots with the govt on which stocks are the ones to own? Has the SEC decided that shortselling is going to be outlawed in the future and all shorts will have to be covered? is AAPL going to come up with something better than they allready have every year?
If the answer to all of these questions was yes then I could understand why the market rallies incessantly..and why a two point drop in the SPUZ in considered a great buy.

JB

A Costanza world

So I read last night that Cali and Texas are having big tax revenue issues - two rather large states.
So I thought boy thats a negative, but I remembered that Seinfeld where George realized if he did the opposite of what his initial reaction was he would make the right move. So last night when I read that tax news the SPUZ were unchanged my initial reaction was sellem but I thought what would George do and this morning they are up $6 - again proving the wisdom of all things Seinfeld.

JB

Explain....

Caution Favors the Bulls

By Jim Cramer

This was written this morning - is this to mean that cautious investors you know the ones long BIDU, GOOG, AAPL , GS and AMZN have better odds of making money from these levels than losing? The snasdaq is up 62% from the lows - if you went to Vegas what kind of odds do you think they'd give you on another15%?? I guess all you have to do is look at the NDX options - but Im to tired for that now. Cramer has been dead on with his bullishness - but he is obssesed with the notion that all hedge funds are short the market - obssesed. Do I have some shorts? Yes Do I have some longs? Yes. Can you blame people who have seen one of the largetst stock market recoveries of all time of being afraid that the market could poop again?? He goads them, chides them. A money managers number one job is to protect his clients capital - if the money manager is skeptical of the markets and is positioned that way- he is doing his job. If he/she is buying GOOG, AAPL etc so that he is not left behind he is not.
Im short AAPL right now - but I have very defined risk, Im short a call spread, so I know the max that I can lose and gain - I dont have to watch it every second.
Alcoa kicked off the earnings season with a beat the number the other day, the pundits all breathlessly talked about what a huge victory this was and the stock traded up a buck afterhours - it is now lower than when it reported - if this is what the rest of earnings season has in store get ready for a market correction.

JB

Dream the impossible dream

What if the beta buyers stopped for a few hours ? The autopilot SPU buyers took a break? - GS TO JPM, JPM TO GS...what if markets were allowed to trade freely for a few hours? What if someone bought AAPL up .60 cents this morning and was actually looking at a loss at some point in the day? What if the SPU buyers got stopped out on the downside for once? Today the dollar is stronger doesn't that mean that equities and oil are supposed to be down?? What if the fed actually took fedfunds to 1% so that maybe a saver would get some measly return - and not be forced to buy stocks?

Bonds are getting torched today, the bulls can say its a sign of economic strength, if you are me you see it as long overdue - why would people keep lining up to buy our (US) debt at measly rates when our deficit is insane and the democrats are reportedly considering another stimulus plan.

We had a selloff late last week - we had horrible jobs numbers and the market has rallied about 5% this week...the bulls are so arrogant, so complacent, so detached from the economic reality of the US.

Can I ask for a friday smackdown? I can but I know I wont get one.

JB