Boy Have I been a fool

A Bear Mauled by his shorts but saved by his longs. Im lucky to be standing - even luckier to have finished 2010 up a bit over 10% net of all fees. I truly am long short - had there been no shorts in 2010 life would have been way more pleasant and stress free. So since the March 2009 low in the S&P of 666 we have rallied something like 90% which is even more than the market rallied back after the 1929 crash - pretty heady stuff. The market continues to put blinders on to any and all problems and is totally convinced that corporate profits will continue to rock and that people will have no problem paying the same multiple of earnings in a world dominated by cheap money courtesy of insane central bankers globewide. One of the most amazing displays of investor complacency is the strength of AAPL after Steve Jobs announced a relapse of his health problems.
The last time Steve Jobs took a health leave the stock was about $90 it is now $340 or so....I dont think there is a person on earth who thinks AAPL would have gotten to where it is without Mr. Jobs.....but now for some reason they have no fear, obviously AAPL is on solid ground and is the envy of corporations the world over but Jobs makes the company, he is the man on stage with the black turtle neck and jeans...when I saw he was taking a leave I figured the stock would drop $50 - its barely down $10 from the highs - people have no fear. If any lesson has been learned since Bernanke and Paulson asked for their Bazooka its that longs are in the driver seat and shorts are lucky to survive. I have no short in AAPL but I sure think in the long term the company is weaker without Steve Jobs - the man is a visionary.
There were some punk earnings tonight after the close from American Express, Texas Instruments and VMware yet as usual the S&Ps trade firm overnight. I figuer by morning they will be down a bit. The financial crisis is not over by anymeans its just a normal part of life now. The obvious 800 lb gorilla is the state of the states and cities. Will we see a rash of muni bankruptcies??? I think we will, how they impact society remains to be seen...Stay tuned 2011 should be an interesting year - the street is very bullish so the surprises will be to the downside - I for one am ready.

JB