Are we all sucked in yet? Are we bubbling over with enthusiasm for equities? Yes - why? Cuz they are going up - no other reason. Momentum is infectious. The Dow is up 13 of the last 15 days....in the same time Gold has set a new high and short term bond rates have hit all time lows. The fed today said things SUCK and interest rates as they set them will remain at insanely low levels for eternity - its not like its helping - they have been like this for what 2 years now? I guess it will work next quarter. America is being fueled by MASSIVE FEDERAL AND STATE DEFICITS AND SALES OF IPHONES AND DROIDS. After the close another 3 or 4 companies tapped the equity markets with large secondary offerings after about 5 yesterday. So as Wall St. would have you believe buy buy buy as companies sell sell sell. And then there is that silliness about how great MSFT is b/c it raised its dividend a whopping 3 cents per quarter - gee what are you gonna do with all of that cash? .12 cents - on 1k shares which would be a massive holding for most Americans thats $120 a year before taxes - buy buy buy. The technical indicators are screaming breakout but the world and America is still fundamentally in breakdown - I dont give a ratsass what these economic releases are saying houses are still sitting forever in my neighborhood, jobs are scarce and people not Jim Cramer and Bob Dole (from blackrock) have ZERO confidence in the "American dream" right now. So they will extol the value of buying equities and tell you how the bears are just fools but remember they are part of the machine - the grease - maybe if the market had not rallied 9% in September todays latest Fed scam should have been bought but the market rallied massively into another day where Bernanke declared that no matter what he will try and inflate out of this debacle. Gold does not buy it, bonds dont buy it , non wealthy non wall streeters dont believe it. The Aholes who are managing your money are the ones chasing Amazon at 55 times earnings and Opentable at 17 times sales - they are the ones who are buying the market up 9% this month while they were shitting in there pants last month. Almost everyone just chases beta now thats it- I for one am waiting for truth in the marketplace for prices that reflect where people would buy businesses and not the handful that have been bought out lately cuz interest rates leave companies feeling that 5% ROE deals are attractive.
A burned bear
JB
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Can you feel it??
The rally was contained at the 1120 level (for now)....Interestingly Goldman is coming out with very negative macro research on the US and global economy - which normally would make me thing that they are long and are trying to trap sellers but all of the other houses are still embracing the stupidity of "no double dip" so maybe GS is telling the truth?? George Costanza's double dipping will prove to be less obvious than this economy's coming double dip.
Gold is telling you that fiat currency's are done. Tbonds are for now the home for safety....
The lack of intraday volatility is just nuts - the risk on and off moves are hatched overnight with either 1% up or down and all day the rebate collectors just run their algorithms robbing the market of true trades. I know some smart guys who are bullish here but Im not sure why......I think the bald guy on CNBC is becoming just laughable as is that entire network...really how do you make sense of a market in the post apocalypse where computers trade all day to collect liquidity rebates - if you don't think its big money consider an article in Forbes this month that describes an algo traders 300 Million dollar investment building his own line from Chicago to NYC so that he could be 3 milliseconds faster than other traders...http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0927/outfront-netscape-jim-barksdale-daniel-spivey-wall-street-speed-
war.html
And here I am actually trying to say ok Id like to be long WYNN and short Las Vegas Sands....idiot, fool, imbecile.
Anyways I think the super highbeat heroes, NFLX,CRM,PCLN, are due for a nice little smackdown - we shall see - we shall see.
JB
Gold is telling you that fiat currency's are done. Tbonds are for now the home for safety....
The lack of intraday volatility is just nuts - the risk on and off moves are hatched overnight with either 1% up or down and all day the rebate collectors just run their algorithms robbing the market of true trades. I know some smart guys who are bullish here but Im not sure why......I think the bald guy on CNBC is becoming just laughable as is that entire network...really how do you make sense of a market in the post apocalypse where computers trade all day to collect liquidity rebates - if you don't think its big money consider an article in Forbes this month that describes an algo traders 300 Million dollar investment building his own line from Chicago to NYC so that he could be 3 milliseconds faster than other traders...http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0927/outfront-netscape-jim-barksdale-daniel-spivey-wall-street-speed-
war.html
And here I am actually trying to say ok Id like to be long WYNN and short Las Vegas Sands....idiot, fool, imbecile.
Anyways I think the super highbeat heroes, NFLX,CRM,PCLN, are due for a nice little smackdown - we shall see - we shall see.
JB
Monday, September 13, 2010
8/9
Eight out of 9 days up in September - no chance Obama has the market "forces" bidding stocks up is there?? Buffet (ultimate political and wall st. insider) is out today saying there is no chance of double dip...really what is a guy who writes articles entitled "Buy America" gonna say??
We are back to 1999 stock strategies - OPENtable - you make restaurant reservations from the internet or your iphone is trading at 100 times forward earnings and 18 times sales - I suppose the braindead Citigroup analyst who upgraded it today has a paycheck and an IPHONE so perhaps he uses OPENtable but regardless it was up 5 or 6 bucks today in algospasm trading rhythms. The 16% of the job seeking population that is unemployed must also be using OPENtable on a regular basis....Priceline.com, NETFLIX, GOOGLE, Salesforce.com were all doing there thing trading up up up and away....today MSFT even got into the act with a 5% move based on a rumor that they might issue debt to buyback stock or pay increased dividends....You can thank the fed for that, with Treasuries at 2.75% MSFT can borrow at like 3.5% so hey thanks Ben Bernanke - u are the stuff that stupid stock manipulations are made of.
Anyways the permabulls are just as bullish now as they were seven percent ago at the start of September as if we are in some normal environment and not some post financial apocalyptic world - as if we are not in a world where insane worldwide government borrowing is fueling the only growth and spending there is. Perfect example of government stupidity on a local level - Lincolnwood Il - we have perfectly good streetlights on one of our main streets but yet for some reason we now have brand new streetlights that look a bit nicer - so some Union electricians got paid way to much to work for 8 hours and take 2 hour breaks where they smoked cigarettes, ate fast food and pushed up insurance costs - so thanks for that. How the bulls have convinced themselves that everything is going to be OK is most interesting to me. I fear that the conviction that there will be no double dip will make the escape window that much smaller - tread carefully.
JB
We are back to 1999 stock strategies - OPENtable - you make restaurant reservations from the internet or your iphone is trading at 100 times forward earnings and 18 times sales - I suppose the braindead Citigroup analyst who upgraded it today has a paycheck and an IPHONE so perhaps he uses OPENtable but regardless it was up 5 or 6 bucks today in algospasm trading rhythms. The 16% of the job seeking population that is unemployed must also be using OPENtable on a regular basis....Priceline.com, NETFLIX, GOOGLE, Salesforce.com were all doing there thing trading up up up and away....today MSFT even got into the act with a 5% move based on a rumor that they might issue debt to buyback stock or pay increased dividends....You can thank the fed for that, with Treasuries at 2.75% MSFT can borrow at like 3.5% so hey thanks Ben Bernanke - u are the stuff that stupid stock manipulations are made of.
Anyways the permabulls are just as bullish now as they were seven percent ago at the start of September as if we are in some normal environment and not some post financial apocalyptic world - as if we are not in a world where insane worldwide government borrowing is fueling the only growth and spending there is. Perfect example of government stupidity on a local level - Lincolnwood Il - we have perfectly good streetlights on one of our main streets but yet for some reason we now have brand new streetlights that look a bit nicer - so some Union electricians got paid way to much to work for 8 hours and take 2 hour breaks where they smoked cigarettes, ate fast food and pushed up insurance costs - so thanks for that. How the bulls have convinced themselves that everything is going to be OK is most interesting to me. I fear that the conviction that there will be no double dip will make the escape window that much smaller - tread carefully.
JB
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