Monday, July 26, 2010

Snort Snort or grrrr grrrr

The S&P is higher 6 out of the last 7 days - pretty good success numbers for the Bulls. Today was a mind numbing session of random bullish action - commodity stocks were higher as were small caps, tech was mixed bag, banks were strong. Ford introduced its new Explorer which I gotta say looked pretty damn nice to these eyes - assuming it drives well and fit and finish are good that should be another success for Ford.
Im still very much a skeptic of the "recovery" - corporate profits are coming in strong but whats driving them? Emaciated cost structures and stimulus sugar still in the system. Anyway - thats my opinion. It seems like when you see Geithners name in the news a lot you see a strong mkt....He's been in the news talking about the need to let the Bush Tax cuts expire....you see they need more revenue to pay for all of the SPUZ he has been buying - simple.
Im pretty beared up again - think 1110 holds as resistance and market returns back to 1050-1065 range in pretty short order....but hey you guys know Ive been wrong before.

JB

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

"Investing" 2010 style

8 days ago we were hearing about a big slowdown coming, Europe dissolving, State and municipal bankruptcies etc, etc, etc - now we have had a 7 day rally in the S&P which has tacked on almost 10% in a literal straight line. This is what fund "managers" are getting paid for?? Please - there is no liquidity left in this market - the algo psychos have taken the lifeblood out of the market and NO HUMAN is left to trade - or at least very few. I have been quiet lately as the task of managing a portfolio and running a business and being a Dad has left me with not so much free time. But the action of the past days is so ridiculous that I had to comment. Bear market rallys are vicious - take no prisoners affairs- that is exactly what this has been and may continue to be - honestly how many times do you remember a near 10% move in 7 trading days?? Jim Cramer is very bullish again so we must be getting ready to drop - CNBC continues to pump the market and the "recovery". Recovery??? The jobless ranks are bulging, the period of unemployment is lengthening and corporate America continues to deliver good numbers b/c they are not hiring people. Its an odd moment - something has to give at somepoint - either they start hiring and margins get squeezed or end demand just peters out as high levels of unemployment cannot lead to a buoyant environment. PEs seem to be cheapening up - Id argue that PEs will go sub 8 times for many companies in the not so distant future - Japan the sequel.
I remain very suspect of the US economy and very certain of majorly tuff times in our future. I wish I didnt feel that way but.....so it goes.
Wipeout on TV tonight - good stuff!!!

JB