How long can the BS last??

In a clear message to the market the SPUZ opened up 4 bucks tonight saying 8.8 quakes dont matter - if horrid economic numbers dont matter why should a natural disaster. I truly believe at this point that the morons pushing this market higher right now are so out of touch with the realitys of the world that they are truly the greatest fools. I guess from there isolated penthouses 20 stories above street level and there hampton retreats which stare out at the Atlantic Ocean it might be easy to believe all is well in the world. I just read a headline that mining stocks are rallying in Asia due to the earthquake...I also read a report that says that JP Morgan is more concerned over Cal's debt issues than it is over Greece's issues - Jamie Dimon says that his banks exposure to Greece is hedged - what did they do convince AIG to write more CDS??
Oh well lets see what tomorrow brings - mondays always seem to be up days - will there be another one?

JB

Back...

I was away for a few days doing some skiing in Colorado......great to be away from the flicks and ticks of trading - OK I did check my blackberry for some quotes when I was on the chairlift but still great to be away.
The markets have declared loudly and clearly that it does not want to be bothered by issues such as Greece solvency and does not even want to hear anything about California's budget woes. What the market did want to hear was some rumor that AAPL was going to split its stock 4-1 which was good for a very strong rally in the afternoon hours. The SPUZ had been down as much as 17-18 points and finished down about 3 and tonight are up 3.5 so 24 hours no real movement...
After the close tonight DECK reported numbers and the stock was up $10 afterhours...I own some calls in there so bully bully for me...this is the maker of UGG boots something that in my life as a Dad and husband I have seen my girls and wife wear...and wear alot - expensive boots they are - I usually tell my kids to ask Grandma to buy them for them for Hanukkah...
Anyways economic numbers are having very little baring on the market as yesterdays confidence and housing numbers were total SHIT and todays initial jobless claims almost pierced the 500k mark....oh yeah things are great in the US - no wonder companies are reporting great numbers they are firing everyone.
I continue to buy names like Verizon and MO which have big dividend yields...I also sold some puts in PALM today as the stock seems really washed out...I have some short positions in commodity play FCX and have sold some call spreads in Toyota...Im sure lots of people are short Toyota now but one thing I know about auto businesses is that when things go bad the ship does not just right itself in a week or two - it takes a while if ever - screw Toyota anyways - they were so frickin pompous - I love this smackdown they are getting - they make amazingly boring cars and somehow hoodwinked the whole world into believing that they were perfect when really they were just drinking to much saki at the karaoke bar - I was born and raised in Michigan and my Dad worked for Ford for a loooooooooooooong time - can you tell??
Anyways the market is as usual confusing and challenging but we battle...

JB

Strange days indeed

Markets rally in strait lines, sell off like a ton of bricks, rally in extremely thin trade after hours but ultimately go nowhere fast. Why people are even buying dips when another financial meltdown might be upon us is reason enough to wanna be short...SPUZ are rallying 4.5 afterhours after an uninspiring day of regular session trade - why? Who the heck knows why...I think we need a good flushing of the markets a real scare day, fridays snapback rally needs to be tested.....That day shows you why bulls should be happy that shorts are in the market...not the usual bitching by the worlds most famous stock jockey how the shorts are killing the market.....

Buckle up

JB

Save Greece save the markets blah blah blah

This is so painfully silly - Greece has become the minute to minute proxy for trading SPUZ - if there is a good Greece tidbit you gun the market if there is a bad one you sell SPUZ at the market.
So a country that has 3% of the European Unions GDP is now controlling every tick in the US market - silly, comical, misguided.
The underlying issue of sovereign debt is less comical - this is all just a precursor to the main events, Spain, Portugal and eventually Uncle Sam.....the only way we will not default is if the tax rate is about 90% and if the tax rate is 90% the economy is non existent and if the economy is non existent the market is toast.....you follow yet? We have generations of over consumption to blame for the current predicament - governments have been the kings of overspending - but while the bubbles were inflating you didnt notice..now every penny counts. The future is grim, painful, populations could begin to shrink....poor countries will be ruined as their rich brethren will not be able to afford to support them....It seems so clear to me which means Im fo sure wrong.
Oh well people you know what camp I remain in....

JB

Greece is Saved - maybe, Im not sure, WHO CARES?

The market is rallying this morning to the tune of 1% on news that Greece may be bailed out....I would submit that sovereign risk issues were the excuse to sell stocks that were overvalued and extremely overbought....This gap opening me thinks is a good shorting opportunity....but maybe not Im on the fence. One thing is for certain intra day volatility has picked up and for that I am thankful....

JB

Here we go

Its Monday morning - the bulls took a beating last week and are HOPING for reprieve this week. I would submit that the "issues" that are facing the market (sovereign debt - earnings on stimulus steroids) dont just disappear over night - they fester, and they cause angst. It is my opinion that we are in a downtrend so the tape may continue to be unkind, with bottle rocket rallys along the way.

Good luck

JB

Getting to be that time

This market is broken

After hours we have earnings from CSCO - every penny CSCO goes up the SPUZ rally .25 - stupid.
CSCO is an important company but seriously is that where we are at? Zero liquidity....ZERO.
Moodys made some comments today alluding to the slight problem the US government faces fiscally - here is a snippet

The ratios of general government debt to GDP and to revenue are deteriorating sharply, and after the crisis they are likely to be higher than the ratios of other Aaa-rated countries.

If the current upward trend in government debt were to continue and become irreversible, the rating could come under downward pressure. The trend and the outlook would be more important than any particular level of debt


Are we just supposed to ignore stuff like this and focus in on if CSCO beats the numbers??? Apparently yes...

People are so used to problems just going away and things getting better well Im here to tell you when the shot of cocaine that the government shot in the arm of the economy goes away the withdrawl pains are going to be enormous. The guys at places like PIMCO are saying the right things - El Erian is screaming from the mountain top watch out there is still tremendous risk in the system...I for one believe him and agree. There was a guy on TV from Blackrock today saying multiples are cheap on stocks like IBM and INTC.....that may very well be true but go back to the Gretzky concept of go to where the puck is gonna be...the stock market is the ultimate discounter of future events - its telling us a couple things perhaps - multiples are going down as players realize we are in a steroidal environment and two perhaps earnings could once again fall off a cliff. honestly do we really believe that when places like California and Illinois are insolvent that we are in a world where one should be paying a big premium for future earnings that may or may not materialize?
Be extremely careful - I have opinions but obviously dont know whats gonna happen - I see sovereign CDS blowing out (Greece, Portugal, Dubai) - I read about states (like my own) that are basically insolvent, I read about tightening of lending in China, I read about higher taxes (yes they are coming), I read about an insane deficit at the government level - I read all this stuff but yet market talking heads act as if this is a normal environment - it aint.

JB

Lots has happened

Well we got a selloff...now what? Good earnings (b/c of the financial steroids) were sold and sold hard. Dont forget people we had rallied 70% off the lows....it was overdue. Now remember how overbought we stayed it is entirely possible that we could remain oversold for quite sometime.
Markets nature is to push people to challenge their beliefs and convictions as last years inexorable bull run drove me nearly insane.
On a personal note my wife did a 1/2 marathon this past weekend and raised over $5k for children with terminal illnesses - couldnt be more impressed or proud. Way to go!!

JB