2009 Cya

Its almost over.
A year like none other - insane highs and lows - S&P 666 to S&P 1124 - people lining up to pull money out of banks, storied institutions vanished (or at least their equity did) think , FNM, FRE, CIT, Lehman etc....and others have vaulted to the top of the business totem poll, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG etc.
Personally this has been a great year and a tuff year - we successfully launched a hedgefund as the world was vomiting risk - we started off with great returns , but as volatility waned in the market place we took it on the chin - especially the last few weeks.
Next year will be different that much I know for sure. New Years also happens to my birthday - another year older - hopefully a bit wiser.

Have a great New Year

JB

Lucky #7

The markets are setting up for their 7th up day in a row - again the SPUZ have made a 4 point upmove overnight and we find them hovering at 1127 - 1127??? WTF??
The BETA stocks are off and running this AM, AAPL thru PCLN all up at least .40% in the early going - This morning Barton Biggs and Marc Faber are being qouted as saying stocks and the dollar should continue to rally - ok Im good with that.
I think if I have learned anything while battling this government sponsored equity orgy its that people are bound to commit the same mistakes over and over - yours truly included. I see the negative to a fault and others see the positive to a fault.
Oh well have a good day trading.

JB

Xmas Original

Twas the night before xmas not a spuz was sold, the bulls we're elated as they spun more gold. California budget woes ignored bears selloff hopes again were gored. Bonds were sold rates popped higher bulls sat cheerily by admiring the fire. Bears looked at their barren trees and wondered if their funds will ever again generate fees. Lehman,Wamu,Bear, fannie and freddie were just mere stumbling blocks to returns that have become quite heady. AIG has been forgotten, GM Chrysler who cares the Obama crew has killed the bears. The VIX has tumbled , traders have been humbled. Intraday volatility has vanished and Kass thinks shortsellers might be banished. Cramer's bullishness rules the roost boy oh boy my P&L could use a boost. While the world welcomes the most famous Jew this Jew wonders will the bears ever again say boo? enjoy your long holiday weekend I wish you all well I'm hoping this xmas begins the end of bear hell.

JB

And the drummer beats on

As the wall street elite schuss down the slopes of Vail and Aspen thanks to massive taxpayer subsidized bonuses stocks keep their upside swagger in what I can truly call mind numbing trade.
Its ever so interesting to me how the "range" for the day is always about 3 points higher than yesterdays close to keep the bullish feel going. When Obama said a year ago "i think its a good time to buy stocks" he sure was not kidding. Everyday since then has been a good day to buy stocks. Im so sick of being forced by the federal reserve with their zero interest rate policy to take risk. If I had a 100 grand (I only wish) in a money market Im gonna earn $148 this year on it - WTF??
Its just wrong - all this so the aholes at GS and JPM and CITI and BAC who choked on all of these ridiculous mortgages can maintain their lifestyles - how bout a little fucking justice??

So stupid

JB

Anybody seen the Grinch?

Im wondering if he is going to be able to steal Xmas or perhaps Obama, Bernanke and Geitner have shipped him down to gitmo to make sure that no SPUZ are ever sold. One market that is under selling pressure are US Treasuries - structurally a good short b/c the US has to keep selling inorder to keep up with our governments never ending spending - some resistance areas on yields were breached yesterday - watch this market as the debt markets size makes our stock market seem like a silly little kid.
The master beta names are all bid up this AM as the algorithms warm up and get ready to do todays work.
Gold is weak again as are treasuries - stock futures have a green light again popping $5 bucks and why not the grinch is in gitmo.

Have a good day

JB

News that means nothing

The FDIC took it on the chin for another 1.8 billion friday - yawn..the Chinese are jawboning about how there aint enough money to keep buying US Treasuries...etc etc etc - the market opened about 6 higher and at the open vaulted another 5 higher in minutes and from there its been a no range kinda day with a 1 dollar push higher evey hour - Santa Calus is in the house.
For my own mental health in 2010 I will be paying no heed to Jim Cramer - he aggrevates me to no end - he loves a stock one day and then never metnions it again - who needs advisors like that? Not me so Im swearing him off, no mad money no real money no nuttin.
This is one heck of a tuff game - live to trade another day.

JB

Santa rally

What a dumbass Santa is - the FDIC gets tagged for almost 2 billion in bank failures friday afternoon - and here's Santa in his redsuit buying every SPU he can get his hands on as they are up $6 in the early goings here monday morning.
The beta stocks are all moving up premarket - cuz I guess pople are gonna pay more for em by the end of the day?? I plan on sorta just monitoring the portfolio today not really trying to trade as this market will be thin as the man in the red ruit tries to tack on a few percent to pad peoples stockings. I hope to take a day this week and take my older kids skiing (if you can call it that in the midwest).
My advice is be careful this week it can be very whippy.

All eyes on Citi.............

Huge secondary and covertible offering...........
This is tomorrows story. I need this market to crack - perhaps the 33% dilution that this deal is bringing on Citi shareholders will be the spark - in two days 32 billion in equity issuance from just two companies???? How is thr market not down - how? its impossible. Government intervention has to be involved.

JB

What the Frick?

Can someone call the CME and ask them if they have outlawed selling of S&Ps?? The calmness and persistence of SPU buyers is simply amazing - most traders I talk to are numb to the trading environment at this point. They cant really figure out how and why we have reached the heights we currently find ourselves at. Remind me that the next time the US govt goes all in that I should buy futures and not look at them for 8 months or so...
Yesterday GE said that Commerical Real Estate is problematic, some insurance group said they are facing large losses in CRE and yet today and everyother day for that matter the REITS chug higher - shrinking their dividend yields and juicing their FFO multiples - Im just not smart enough to understand this price action. This is up there with some of the worst trading periods of my career - the lack of intraday volatility combined with a one way train to the moon is a lethal (i hope not) combination.
Anyways - the fed is the last piece of news for today - which more than likely will be a non event.

JB

Elves in charge

The Xmas spirit is upon us and the markets are
bouyant - the SPUZ have reversed yesterdays
massive losses of $4 points. Today Times man of the year Mr. Bernanke will tell us that interest rates are going to remain low for an extended period of time....and then the market will probably throw itself a party. Why not? Tonight Citi prices its big secondary offering - look for Citi to set an all time record for one day trading volume tomorrow.
Housing starts were in line but who cares - the bull fix headlock is on - Jim Cramer has raised his GOOG price target to $750 - he must click on a lot of GOOG ads to be so bullish.

JB

Ummm ok

SPUZ down all morning premarket on perceived negative economic news, a "bad" number our of Bestbuy and yet here we find ourselves with a market that is barely changed from yesterday. Intraday volatility has vanished, with Stock futures capable of trading at the same price for hours on end. Wierd is all I can call it. I would love to see one of the big longs break the gentlemans agreement and let some stocks go...but really why should they - they have the full faith and credit of Geithner, Bernake and Obama behind them - people think this is nuts but who exactly is telling (ordering whatever) Citibank, B of A, Wells Fargo to raise all this money?? Those three gentleman are calling the shots. Im tired, worn out , worried, and just pissed off by this "trading" environment. maybe I will take Jimmy Rogers advice and learn how to farm

JB

Quant traders are scratching their heads

Dollar UP
OIL UP
GOLD DOWN
STOCKS DOWN (ever so slightly)

Divergences in the famed carry trade are popping up all over the place. I could give a rats ass about these relationships as I believe its just a simple case of fooled by randomness.
You can be sure at these "trading firms" the Asian and Russian geniuses are standing infront of 10 foot whiteboards trying to grapple with the fact that the algos are failing them this morning.
I guess the news is that there are massive equity offerings coming from Wells Fargo and Citibank in the next day or so - $30 billion in total. Im sure this will be gobbled up easily and then the pros will be clamoring fro yet higher stock prices...blah blah, wash, rinse, repeat.
Best Buy posted numbers this morning thus far the stock is selling off to the tune of 5% - the bald guy is allready out defending BBY as the script continues to be leaked to him everyday from the powers that be at GE. Obama's hypocrisy is really making my stomach turn.

JB

Drip, Drip, Drip

The water is being dripped on traders foreheads as the market continues to do noting - REITS are trading higher as is TECH for the most part. Its as dull as it gets. The gentlemans agreement to not sell stocks continues as market players coax more and more investors in to the fray.
Obama had a bunch of Wall St bosses in his office today - while we are being told they were talking about new regulations they infact were logging into Bloomberg anywhere studying the latest heat seeking algos to keep the market bid at all times.
The SPUZ have been in a two point range for the last 3 hours - its unbearable!!

JB

The baby has gotten its bottle

The market wanted a Dubai bailout and it got it - shhhh stop crying. So basically now any time a sovereign debt issue comes up it is not a problem - a bailout will be announced and everyone can go on there merry way.
There is some excitement in the natural gas space today as XOM is buying XTO - this is an interesting data point - shows the importance of natural gas in the future.
Nothing else to really report this AM

JB

Just dumb

Dollar strength is being shrugged off by the heat seeking SPU buyers - if it feels good just do it. So the market which almost went (Heaven forbid) negative on the day is higher. It is achieving this while AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG and GS are all lower, "pretty sneak sis". How do they do it??
I think at this point it is glaringly obvious that the stock market is a rigged game - how the broader averages can rally while all of the leadership trades down is just stunning. If Obama and geithner can figure out how to manipulate the market as well as they do why cant they create a few jobs??
Yet another day of spinning my wheels

JB

Mornin

Slight dollar smusshage overnight leads to a $6 point rally in the stock futures this AM - ba humbug. At 7:30 we get retail sales figures - last night video game sales were reported as punky - all of my Hanukkah gifts are being bought at Target ($20 bucks and under) and Zappos (boots for the girls). The SPU buyers are on a binge like the guys in the picture above one mornign they are gonna wake up and they will not remember what happened and there will be a Tiger (bear) in the room, Good luck today and Happy Hanukkah - the holiday that commemorates the Jews beating the odds and taking out a much larger enemy, kind of like the Bears vs the Bulls.

JB

More of the same

The bulls are untouchable, Dubai, Sovereign CDS's, Moodys downgrading Greece and various US states, worse than expected jobless claims, bad treasury auctions - nothing matters - stocks (or at least stock futures) are where its at. The SPUZ were once again permabid they looked like they were gonna flush in the last halfhour but amazingly a stabalizing bid showed up - how does that happen? Gee I wonder.
I dont want to be bearish I really dont but I dont know how else to interpret what I am seeing and reading. If anyone outthere can offer up a good reason to be long and what it is you would be long please shoot a comment my way.

JB

Oh do I want to get immensely short here

at 1103 in the SPUZ i wish I could get insanely short but that would be insane.
I think you get a flush today at some point - why are people buying em today? Why? For no fucking good reason. Eventually the fact that we cant get thru this 1110 area will set us up for a nice selloff - tuff when Santa Clause is lurking though....

JB

Sweet Home Chicago...........

NOT!! S&P downgrades Illinois credit.
Let me go buy some more risky assets!

JB

Truth hurts

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deal-was-supposed-mark-renaissance-new-york-commercial-real-estate-market-collapses

But not in this market SLG is trading up!!!!

Gotta love it.

JB

Roll the Gap open boys

Jobless claims worse than "expected" buy em - SPUZ up about $7 bucks pre market as the buyers just cant wait to get back at what they do - chasing the same 6 stocks AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GS, GOOG, PCLN. As I sit here a guy on the NYSE floor who probably dropped out of some highschool in the Bronx and perhaps earned a GED has just declared that the carry trade is alive and well - short the dollar buy risk assets - this guy couldnt define the carry trade if he was sitting in front of a fucking Random house dictionary of finance.
Anyways some interesting rumblings in the Real estate world - I guess SL Green had a major deal blowup?? Huh I thought everything was getting better??

Oh well - gotta run and go buy some AAPL etc.....NOT

JB

Okedoke

So I mentioned before that General Growth properties (GGWPQ) has been on a major tear - from about .50 cents within the last 6 or 7 months up to $10.75 today. Bill Ackman has made a fortune (or another one) on this bet. I just read a piece he wrote about Mall Reits "still being cheap" - As a board member of GGWPQ he is privy to lots of information about potential deals for the company , the Wall St. Journal has been suggesting that SPG (simon Prop group) and Brookfield Malls are interested in acquiring the company - I would l0ve to see in those meetings if Ackman is saying give us stock or is he saying sorry cash only bids!!
I never go to malls so I have no idea what is going on in that world but I sure do see for rent signs EVERYWHERE!!!!!
It is so funny to me that people continue to kid themselves that the market is back to normal - unless employment starts to grow soon and government tax receipts start to increase we are going to eventually buckle under the weight of all the goverments debt. The people in Washington are morons they have no clue anymore what it means to be a normal citizen - when was the last time anyone of those senators or congressman stood in line at the grocery store or paid some bills - they cant govern effectively b/c they in Washington invariably lose touch with what it means to be a normal citizen - Im not really sure where this rant is coming from but you got it anyways.

Cya tomorrow

JB

Im back

Been away for a few days but I am now back to find the world basically the same as I left it. The dollar has strengthened a bit gold has weakened a bit and stocks have barely budged from the highs - all is well.
The beta stocks AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GS GOOG, PCLN have been spoiling the Xmas cheer a bit as they have had a small swoon. One guy who is having a heck of a week is Mr. Bill Ackman, General Growth just keeps rockin higher $10.85 at last check - hes all in at about .50 cents - nice play.
I guess the real question from here is if the markets start to slide a bit more will portfolio managers rush for the exits so as to preserve their massive gains in equities from the March lows.
More when I get my barings back

JB

Tuff to be a bear

The Market has a nice end of day decline yesterday with all of the momo beta names giving it up and this morning the jobs report is way better than expected and the market has reversed all of yesterdays losses and then some - here is the really tuff part though the dollar is rallying today which is leading to weakness in gold and theoretically should be leading to weakness in all asset classes but nope - SPUZ are up $15 here premarket - if the jobs report had been bad the dollar would be getting smoked and that would have supported stocks (only in the fucked up world we live in but thats a discussion for later) but the bulls can have their cake and eat it to.

This opening is gonna hurt.

JB

The truth and nothing but the truth

From my muse

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/untold-story-emergency-unemployment-compensation-surge-265k-one-week

JB

AMZN

Up yet another 2% this morning - 1999 all over again.
BAC paying back the tarp - yawn stock up .30.
SPUZ hit 1116.5 this AM and have now declined to 1107 - now is when the Fed ie GS and JPM come in and just bid for SPUZ - "no way is this market selling off" and later in the day they will grind back to the highs right? Blah Blah Blah
Friggin absurd at this point how unnaturally this market trades.
Gold is selling off as is oil but not equities - why should they? Jim Cramer is still and always bullish.

Fuck em all

JB

AAPL what gives?

AAPL is trading punky - like all is not well in the Kingdom of JOBS - I dont know how that is possible - AAPL is rockin from everything I can SEE. But regardless the stock is acting crappy - hmmm.
The SPUZ have given back the mornings gains and are getting walloped for a whole buck - total panic. AMZN continues to move higher 2.4% today - have they cured cancer? Gold continues its massive powermove but oil is a bit lower today. Is it just me or has the market been rallying for an awfully long time? I would love to meet those people who have owned and watched AMZN rally 50 dollars in the last 6 weeks - how do they not sell?

JB

Pancake

Flat as one is how the opening is shaping up - AMZN is up AGAIN pre market - simply amazing.
Ive been feeling pretty rotten about my trading lately as I battle this never ending bullrun but it has gotten so bad for us bear/free market types that Nobel Laureate Taleb, who started a volatility trading fund as the vix was at 55 (now at 22) has removed himself from public life.
In a normal world that would signify some sort of top in the market and allow for a sustained downmove but this is just not a normal market.

Good luck today

JB

Huh???

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mf-global-cancels-250-million-10-year-bond-offering-due-market-conditions

JB

I was just reading

My favorite (or not) bald pundit who just opined that that the market continues to power forward without the help of the bank stocks - says this market is so strong it does not need the banks. When people start making exceptions for stuff like the BS we are seeing on an hourly basis it gets dangerous. See cuz the reason you listen to him is his vast experience well now he is saying that what he has learned is wrong - stay long regardless of anything. Interesting to me thats all.
Of course in my experience it seems I have learned nothing.

JB

Dubai done!!

The Dubai hiccup is over , markets are back to status qou - Bernanke crushing dollar, daytraders the world over chasing AMZN and other nutty priced stocks. SPUZ are 100% permabid - I suppose now the bulls can have a Santa rally, Why? Why the fuck not!!
If you bothered to read that CMBS article I posted last night you should not worry REITs are doing just fine today after that snappy rally yesterday afternoon - equities do not care about scary statistics and more importantly the "fund managers" buying them everyday dont either.
I want to aplogize to any readers out there who I have influenced with my negative view on things - trust me I wish I saw things differently cuz then Id be up 20% this year and not 11% - but I can only call it how I see it.

JB

Id apprecieate comments feedback criticism

Let er rip!!!!!!!!!!!

JB

Roll the up $9 point opening boys

The up $9 opening has been selected for todays early opening act ( I have a 5 year old who woke me up earlier than normal). Im selling futures against my long SPX calls - I got lucky and covered em (futures) all on DDAY (Dubai Day).
People are excited today b/c?? I guess Dubai will get a bailout? So not only is the dollar worthless so is the currency in Dubai - cuz if you dont have enough of it will just print more.....
I suppose I should latch onto the fact that there is a kabal amongst US Fund mamgers to not sell stocks - how else could the bald guy be right everyday??
As far as early morning movers AMZN is up .90% (dont worry its early +2% is in the cards) AAPL is up .81% you get the idea...
Ill be very curious to see if DLR,AVB,SPG,ACC are able to keep those last hour gains from yesterday - I mean honestly who was not plowing into CRE on the close yesterday??
Spicoli (pictured) was the fund manager who made that audible call to buy any and all CRE plays on the close yesterday - who can compete with a dope smoking surfer??

JB