So our fund closes the books on another month and it looks to me that after fees we are up 1.5% or so. Ill take that. The market turned in quite a subdued performance today - my partners technical studies turned pretty negative today - so we bought some index puts on the close - we'll see how that plays out. I have been way more bearish than him so hopefully his timing is better than mine.
Tomorrow we have HOV earnings - Ill be watching closely to see how that impacts my pref vs common arb. Hopefully they will have meaningful positive things to say and the preferred catches a big bid. Right on the close Credit Suisse upgraded RIMM (strange timing if you ask me) the stock is popping a buck in afterhours trading. REITS, TECH, DARKMATTER all weak today - we'll see what tomorrow brings. By the way does anyone else think releasing the lockerbie bomber is awful - not sure where that came from but its been bothering me.
Its a beautiful day outside so I think Im gonna beat the traffic and jet outa here a little early.
JB
Monday, August 31, 2009
Sleeperhold in place
The market is snoooozing into the close, SPUZ down 9 - creeping a bit higher - no one is doing anything. In market news today Disney is buying Marvel Comics - is Spidy gonna be in the next Toystory now that would be cool.
AIG,C,FNM and FRE continue to be weak...REITS have calwed back a bit, its really a lackluster session.
I covered a small piece of CHK today - its down about 4%...still have the upside calls in place if it rallys back I will reshort.
I need matchsticks to keep my eyes open today.
later
JB
AIG,C,FNM and FRE continue to be weak...REITS have calwed back a bit, its really a lackluster session.
I covered a small piece of CHK today - its down about 4%...still have the upside calls in place if it rallys back I will reshort.
I need matchsticks to keep my eyes open today.
later
JB
Midday
Yawn......SPUZ are down 11 bucks - and have been in a 2 or 3 point range for the last couple hours.
Today is the last day of the month - lots at stake with where stocks close, management fees, incentive fees - its a stressful day for many market participants.
TECH is weak, REITS are weak, Oil is weak everything is weak.
So what do you do? Do you hop on to the short side? Get long for a reversal? Do nothing? Im going with number 3 right now, I have plenty of shorts on and with it being the last day of the month I would not press my downside bets - but I gotta tell you I think they could be down 3% today.
Random thought. If you are AIG why are you not taking advantage of massive volume and selling stock thru an ATM program and raising money. If market participiants want to rally your stock take advantage and raise some capital - who cares about dilution this company cannot really make any money until they pay back Uncle Sam.
Anyways - tomorrow is HOV earnings - Ill be paying close attention as I am long the preffered and short common - I have bought some upside common calls just in case the common rips higher.
JB
Today is the last day of the month - lots at stake with where stocks close, management fees, incentive fees - its a stressful day for many market participants.
TECH is weak, REITS are weak, Oil is weak everything is weak.
So what do you do? Do you hop on to the short side? Get long for a reversal? Do nothing? Im going with number 3 right now, I have plenty of shorts on and with it being the last day of the month I would not press my downside bets - but I gotta tell you I think they could be down 3% today.
Random thought. If you are AIG why are you not taking advantage of massive volume and selling stock thru an ATM program and raising money. If market participiants want to rally your stock take advantage and raise some capital - who cares about dilution this company cannot really make any money until they pay back Uncle Sam.
Anyways - tomorrow is HOV earnings - Ill be paying close attention as I am long the preffered and short common - I have bought some upside common calls just in case the common rips higher.
JB
Monday slip and slide
We open up with a slip and then a slide...stocks are a bit weak...I'm not piling on or anything but my shorts are working. AIG, C, FNM,FRE all weak - I exited my AIG strangle this morning for a decent gain.
REITS are a little heavy this morning there was some disturbing news about a large apt. complex in NYC over the weekend running thru all of its reserves - not good news.
I am taking alittle upside stab in FSLR by buying some calls - it just seems waaaaay oversold to me.
JB
REITS are a little heavy this morning there was some disturbing news about a large apt. complex in NYC over the weekend running thru all of its reserves - not good news.
I am taking alittle upside stab in FSLR by buying some calls - it just seems waaaaay oversold to me.
JB
Mornin
Here we go again - back to the grind. I took my son to the Cub game yesterday - pathetic - looked like the Big Z was throwing batting practice for the Mets. Anyways back to the big casino.
Futures are a bit heavy this AM with SPUZ down 6.5 bucks, China got smacked last night for almost 7% - if our market were to drop 7% today that would knock the S&P down to about 950 - not likely to happen just putting it in perspective. Darkmatter, AIG,C,FNM,FRE have been ruling the day - believe it or not these zombie companies have an important psychological role in the day to day of this bullrun - when they stumble I believe the market will too.
Treasuries are continuing their ascent this morning with the longbond up 1/2 a point. Im going to look to fade that move by putting on some buywrites in TBT (an untrashort bond ETF).
On friday we bought some Jan premium in PALM and SHLD and I will be looking for more names to do that in today.
more later
JB
Futures are a bit heavy this AM with SPUZ down 6.5 bucks, China got smacked last night for almost 7% - if our market were to drop 7% today that would knock the S&P down to about 950 - not likely to happen just putting it in perspective. Darkmatter, AIG,C,FNM,FRE have been ruling the day - believe it or not these zombie companies have an important psychological role in the day to day of this bullrun - when they stumble I believe the market will too.
Treasuries are continuing their ascent this morning with the longbond up 1/2 a point. Im going to look to fade that move by putting on some buywrites in TBT (an untrashort bond ETF).
On friday we bought some Jan premium in PALM and SHLD and I will be looking for more names to do that in today.
more later
JB
Friday, August 28, 2009
Churning into the weekend
The market hit its highs at the opening and sold off quickly - traded down a few bucks on the SPUZ most of the day and now they are up fractionally...yawn. AIG, FNM, FRE,C big movers. INTC is up almost 5% ( a non bullshit company) so bulls can put a feather in their cap with that one.
I have made a few good trades today....not being to aggressive..Just so you know its me I am still amazed by the near constant strength in this market.
My partner is coming up with some plays on some jan volatility. We think vol is to cheap.
Anyways next week we will come up with some good new ideas.
JB
I have made a few good trades today....not being to aggressive..Just so you know its me I am still amazed by the near constant strength in this market.
My partner is coming up with some plays on some jan volatility. We think vol is to cheap.
Anyways next week we will come up with some good new ideas.
JB
pause that refreshes
Going away for a few days was just what the Dr. ordered. I was really stressed and Im sure that will return but at least I had a break from the all the ticks...
I have been leaking out a bit of my MPGpA - gotta keep the discipline of selling into strength.
I bought a strangle (calls and puts) in AIG today, anyone who tells you where this stock is going is nuts - it reminds me of an internet stock in 1999.
While I was out one of my faves, Doug Kass said the market has topped - this call should be given special credence - he nailed the bottom - his writings are must reads.
Good to be back but hanging out in Vail wouldn't be to shabby either
JB
I have been leaking out a bit of my MPGpA - gotta keep the discipline of selling into strength.
I bought a strangle (calls and puts) in AIG today, anyone who tells you where this stock is going is nuts - it reminds me of an internet stock in 1999.
While I was out one of my faves, Doug Kass said the market has topped - this call should be given special credence - he nailed the bottom - his writings are must reads.
Good to be back but hanging out in Vail wouldn't be to shabby either
JB
The song remains the same
Bulls are in charge - AIG, C, FNM,FRE enfuego. AIG has traded nearly 30 million shares in 35 minutes....
HOV and HOVNP is kinda puzzling to me, the common has shot up by 25% or so in the last week and the preferred has lagged that - again Ill say if the companies prospects are getting so much better (as the bump in the stock would indicate) than the preferred should be screaming....alas it is not. Patience young jedi - it will correct itself.
more later
JB
HOV and HOVNP is kinda puzzling to me, the common has shot up by 25% or so in the last week and the preferred has lagged that - again Ill say if the companies prospects are getting so much better (as the bump in the stock would indicate) than the preferred should be screaming....alas it is not. Patience young jedi - it will correct itself.
more later
JB
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Get your head in the game
Im back from some R&R in Denver, CO. Spent some good time with my family and really enjoyed our day in Vail which has to be one of my favorite places on earth, Im a bit of a skier. Anyways now I have to get my bearings see what the markets have done for the last four days and get my head back in the game. My partner minded the shop quite ably while I was gone, but I have to get my own bearings back.
It appears to me that the bullish camp is growing, and stocks are extremely strong. I got a little winner while I was gone in some AIG calls I was long - We sold em today with the stock up $10 or so. I have no idea what has gotten into this stock but it traded 149 million shares today - huh???
Im pretty sure thats bigger than the float. Remember this stock was reverse split 1 for 20, so at $50 per share its like $2.5, could this go to $100 or $5 who knows - fundamentals have left the building , im not quite sure why I bought calls in there but I sure am glad I did.
We are approaching the end of the month, and I have to imagine people will keep the market well bid, September is historically a tuff month for stocks...here come the curve balls.
Still thinking about those Rocky mountains
JB
It appears to me that the bullish camp is growing, and stocks are extremely strong. I got a little winner while I was gone in some AIG calls I was long - We sold em today with the stock up $10 or so. I have no idea what has gotten into this stock but it traded 149 million shares today - huh???
Im pretty sure thats bigger than the float. Remember this stock was reverse split 1 for 20, so at $50 per share its like $2.5, could this go to $100 or $5 who knows - fundamentals have left the building , im not quite sure why I bought calls in there but I sure am glad I did.
We are approaching the end of the month, and I have to imagine people will keep the market well bid, September is historically a tuff month for stocks...here come the curve balls.
Still thinking about those Rocky mountains
JB
Friday, August 21, 2009
Why you have to watch the futures so carefully
If you believe as I do that players are merely renting stocks for the next momentum move you have to watch the futures. While they are firmly bid you can party you can buy stocks like AIG and FNM and FRE etc.... that dont trade on reality as I believe it defined by Websters, but if these futures were allowed to come unglued what would hold up an insurance company in hock to the government for 200 billion - nothing. You know how partying works its feels great till the next morning...for now the partyers have nary a worry as SPUZ buyers work in concert with them propelling this rally to 54% above thew March lows. But the supply of booze has to be running short (doesnt it?)
JB
JB
Trapped like a rat
We have a monster rally from the getgo today which I so naively thought was tied to index option expiration, and now we do nothing, no chance to trade and try and make a few bucks to cover losses on positions, I got one decent scalp on the long side in MPG common stock but no movement in the market - zilch. That has been the norm lately you get a huge move and the market just sits for hours - as if it has been put on cruise control. That MPG trade made up for the silliness of being short Nasdaq futures. MPG rallying 34% should be continued tinder for MPGpA to continue its ascent ( i hope).
Is it wrong of me to want to get to a certain amount of dollars in the bank and then never work again - if I could make the money - could I do it? Could I just chill? I think I could - my kids are young 11,8,5, and almost 2 - so its not like I could just pick up and move to a lakehouse (which is what I want to do) and of course my wife would have to want to go with me - I dont want to be miserable with anybody else - but Id love the opportunity to try it out. Why else be in such a high risk business so that I can slave away until Im 75? nope.
JB
Is it wrong of me to want to get to a certain amount of dollars in the bank and then never work again - if I could make the money - could I do it? Could I just chill? I think I could - my kids are young 11,8,5, and almost 2 - so its not like I could just pick up and move to a lakehouse (which is what I want to do) and of course my wife would have to want to go with me - I dont want to be miserable with anybody else - but Id love the opportunity to try it out. Why else be in such a high risk business so that I can slave away until Im 75? nope.
JB
Good thing I have a vacation coming
I am mentally beat up, I hate one way markets especially when Im on the wrong side.
REITS,TECH,DARKMATTER,BANKS everything is good. So existing homesales was better than expected, unless of course Beeks gave you the number before the report (you know who you are) so you knew exactly what to expect. So answer me this why is my HOVNP not kicking HOVs butt today?? Dunno.
The SPUZ are sitting around up 17 bucks, passing time basking in there glory, why not? I guess the time to get short will be when the government starts pulling these "market" stabalizing programs, for now you can't beat em - their henchmen (GS, JPM etc...) are doing what they are told - buy stocks and so we rally everyday, everynight. I gotta give Jimmy Rogers credit he said a few months ago that with the reckless printing of dollars stocks could have a massive rally - he was spot on.
Later
JB
REITS,TECH,DARKMATTER,BANKS everything is good. So existing homesales was better than expected, unless of course Beeks gave you the number before the report (you know who you are) so you knew exactly what to expect. So answer me this why is my HOVNP not kicking HOVs butt today?? Dunno.
The SPUZ are sitting around up 17 bucks, passing time basking in there glory, why not? I guess the time to get short will be when the government starts pulling these "market" stabalizing programs, for now you can't beat em - their henchmen (GS, JPM etc...) are doing what they are told - buy stocks and so we rally everyday, everynight. I gotta give Jimmy Rogers credit he said a few months ago that with the reckless printing of dollars stocks could have a massive rally - he was spot on.
Later
JB
I recommend finding a different blog to read
In socialist America stocks go one direction - higher, there is no yin no yang, big firms have all of the information before the public does, the destruction of the dollar is priority number one, basically this Whitehouse is in deeper with Wall street than any other in history. My great month is quickly turning into a soso month, still up for now. The dark matter is king, AIG, FNM,FRE,C all of em. Foot locker and Gamestop had crappy earnings and in an interesting turn of events the mall reits rally - makes good sense right????? I offer no value find something else to read.
JB
JB
If they are up 1% pre market whats the close gonna be?
Watch out just watch out - if you are short like me you are taking pain but if you are long do you believe that you are going to continue to be rewarded almost every minute of every trading day?
We are so overbought its unreal, I think by 10 am they (SPUZ) will be below 1000. The bald guy has pronounced this AM that the mortgage mess is over, how that is possible with 575k initial jobless claims Ill never know - but hey he's got an audience and I dont.
JB
We are so overbought its unreal, I think by 10 am they (SPUZ) will be below 1000. The bald guy has pronounced this AM that the mortgage mess is over, how that is possible with 575k initial jobless claims Ill never know - but hey he's got an audience and I dont.
JB
More of the same
Late last night I was up and saw the nasdaq futures down about 10 bucks - I bought in half of my short - I literally could not believe my eyes this morning to see them up 6.75. This mornings opening sets the closing price for Aug S&P and other index options, so do with that what you will.
The strength to the bid in this market continues to astound this guy. I think we have existing home sales report at 10am that should be the next data point for the bulls to pounce on....forget about the jobs report - jobs dont matter.
more later
JB
The strength to the bid in this market continues to astound this guy. I think we have existing home sales report at 10am that should be the next data point for the bulls to pounce on....forget about the jobs report - jobs dont matter.
more later
JB
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Bulls make money, Bears (Pa, What are Bears?) make money
Bears usually hibernate during the winter, but boy they are hard to find these days, unless of course you are reading this blog. I feel very lucky to have lost a small sum of money today, that arb position in JCI that I mentioned this morning really helped as did those shorts in the preferred ETFs. I am amazed at how weak those were today - its totally out of character with how this market has been trading. I didnt cover my short nasdaq futures they closed about 5 points in my face - I put on a new short in AXL (with upside calls in place). We are in for a secondary tonight that has warrants attached.
Not much else to report - the brain is drifting towards vacation and concentrating very hard on keeping our profits for the month.
Enjoy the evening. Back at it tomorrow.
JB
Not much else to report - the brain is drifting towards vacation and concentrating very hard on keeping our profits for the month.
Enjoy the evening. Back at it tomorrow.
JB
Warning - Warning
Those preferred ETFs I shorted are getting rocked PFF and PGF - that is a warning sign, red flag whatever you want to call it. Preferred stocks are coming for sale, credit spreads must be widening - that is NOT bullish - I type this as the SPUZ are attacking the days highs. Dark matter stocks rule the roost, AIG, C, FNM, FRE - they be a rockin and a rollin. GOOG is another impressive mover today up $17.46 as it has the distinction of being placed on Goldmans Conviction buy list - maybe they were just long some front month call premium? - I kid I kid, GOOG is a great company and certainly deserves to have its market cap grown by 4 billion today. Anyway the lovefest continues on Wall St - and I am sitting in the cold.
JB
JB
Im bored by this market so...........
If you have ever spent anytime on a trading floor or trading room CNBC is usually playing on the TV - In my office we watch Fox Business news - this is not a political statement, as Fox is a republican network and CNBC is more liberal - there are two main reasons - CNBC is rah rah cheerleader crap and Fox has WAY cuter chicks. If Im gonna get beat up on the shortside cant I at least have a cute girl tell me Im a moron?? I present to you your morning choices. On the Top we have Alexis Glick of FOX and on the bottom we have Erin Burnett of CNBC. Alexis Glick in this guys opinion is waaaaaay cuter like these two aren't even in the same league. Anybody agree, disagree care to comment?
Im taking in (read:covering) my PGF short here at around 15.25 - this was that preferred ETF that I wrote about the other day - that one worked quite well.
JB
Natgas vs CHK
Natgas has dropped below $3 bucks this morning and CHK has rallied 1% or so. I told you people up is down, black is white etc... The last time natgas traded with a $2 handle CHK was trading below $10. Last check CHK was trading $23.09...food for thought. REITS, banks, tech its alllllllll up - happy days are here again. Did you notice how quickly the jobless claims number was dismissed and the better than expected Philly fed number was embraced? I shorted nasdaq futures at around 1608 - this euphoria is so overdone - the hair trigger response to scoop SPUZ is just tired, stupid, played out. Im getting more beared up as the minutes pass.
If you buy SPUZ here its the same as flipping a coin and getting heads 99 times in a row and figuring you will get it another 99 times. Good luck with that.
JB
If you buy SPUZ here its the same as flipping a coin and getting heads 99 times in a row and figuring you will get it another 99 times. Good luck with that.
JB
A little Arb love
I had a position on in JCI - I was long a convertible and short common - its kinda complicated but on a bunch of different metrics it looked like a cheap piece of paper (just take my word for it). So I bought the convertible a few months ago, shorted the stock and let it bake. Well this cake got cooked faster than I had planned, the company today announced there intention to redeem this convertible but they are kicking in a sweetener..So I pick up a few dollars, moral of the story is when you do your homework and put things on for a good reason sometimes you get rewarded.
The market dip was reversed almost instantly as players fell over themselves to buy that .05% weakness this morning. Im shorting AXL and buying upside calls - theme there is its time to short some junk.
JB
The market dip was reversed almost instantly as players fell over themselves to buy that .05% weakness this morning. Im shorting AXL and buying upside calls - theme there is its time to short some junk.
JB
Jobless Clains - poop
575k initial jobless claims - whats the bullish spin on that? Cuz Im sure there is one - Kudlow, Cramer, greater cast of CNBC, anyone?? The SPUZ which had been trading higher on "market strength in Asia" are lower by 2.5 points - make that 1.5 now - man the dip buyers are eager this morning. Sears whiffed big this morning - this has no impact except on the numerous hedge funds that are short this stock and the numerous value funds who believe that there is still a real estate story here - as far as an indication of economic strength or weakness I ask ya when was the last time you were in a sears?
Markets are extremely thin right now and volume numbers are going down everyday - that heightens the possibilty of exaggerated moves - keep your wits about you.
If you were gonna buy a basketball hoop would you buy it at Dicks or Sports Authority?
JB
Markets are extremely thin right now and volume numbers are going down everyday - that heightens the possibilty of exaggerated moves - keep your wits about you.
If you were gonna buy a basketball hoop would you buy it at Dicks or Sports Authority?
JB
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Heads I win Tails I win
This is the life of the bulls these days. China drops 4.3% market rallys - if China rallied 4.3% market would??? anyone??? RALLY. So why I do maintain a short bias? Good question. Why do I? Right about now Im not sure - but in general I like to go against the grain. And besides one can never be sure when market participants will sell on "good news". Ususally when everybody is sure something is good is when you have the sharp reversal days.
JB
JB
Yawn
The close is upon us and the SPUZ are putting a sleeper hold on my imagination and desire to trade - they are up 5.5 - they got close to the unchanged line about 15 minutes ago but the buyers stepped up and rallied em towards the highs of the day. So more of the same - feels like that movie groundhog day.
REITS had nothing, Tech was up a smidge, Oil was the bull story (pun definitely intended) of the day. As we get closer to friday option strikes will become the driver in where stocks and indices find themselves as the various players buy, sell , roll there positions.
I guess the new rules for trading are as follows, if they gap down buy em, if they gap up buy em, if they do nothing buy em - but never ever sell em especially not two days in a row.
I did fine today - made a few bucks - nothing special - Ill take it though.
JB
REITS had nothing, Tech was up a smidge, Oil was the bull story (pun definitely intended) of the day. As we get closer to friday option strikes will become the driver in where stocks and indices find themselves as the various players buy, sell , roll there positions.
I guess the new rules for trading are as follows, if they gap down buy em, if they gap up buy em, if they do nothing buy em - but never ever sell em especially not two days in a row.
I did fine today - made a few bucks - nothing special - Ill take it though.
JB
Mondays move has basically been erased
A surge in oil has solved all of the Bulls problems - Huh - what you talking about Willis? You heard me - higher oil is leading the market up today. Mondays 165 point drop has effectively been erased by a snoozefest yesterday and a 20 point reversal today (spurred on by a rally in oil - again - huh?) which is not fading one bit.
I got a call yesterday from a salestrader who was encouraging me to get long HOV - I said why would I buy HOV when for the same money I could buy HOVNP ( a preferred in the name). He said HOV has a preferred? - yes it does - he takes one look and says its not liquid enough - so hes willing to trade down in the cap structure for liquidity - who cares what makes sense....the real reason is that he is planing on "renting" the stock (he's playing for a quick pop), he does not believe in the company - so liquidity is paramount. You always have to know why you are doing something.
No great ideas to share with you right now...so you get to listen to me opine instead.
JB
I got a call yesterday from a salestrader who was encouraging me to get long HOV - I said why would I buy HOV when for the same money I could buy HOVNP ( a preferred in the name). He said HOV has a preferred? - yes it does - he takes one look and says its not liquid enough - so hes willing to trade down in the cap structure for liquidity - who cares what makes sense....the real reason is that he is planing on "renting" the stock (he's playing for a quick pop), he does not believe in the company - so liquidity is paramount. You always have to know why you are doing something.
No great ideas to share with you right now...so you get to listen to me opine instead.
JB
Tomorrows headlines
Oil prices surge, dollar gets whacked, stocks surge. Huh? This is the world we live in, up is down , right is wrong, white is black etc...High oil prices while indicative of economic expansion (or maybe just another short squeeze) are bad for everybody except the people who were born with it under there butts. I covered some shorts this morning and am gingerly putting a few back out (CHK) , we (read:SPUZ) have rallied about 20+ points from the lows this morning - if we had sold off 20 points from the highs trust me it would be a gimme to buy em - selling em here is a scary trade, 1000 is in sight again for the SPUZ - bulls love those round numbers. One of the dark matter favorites, AIG is up 9.3% - perhaps because the government agreed to pay this months CEO 7 million a year - hes gotta be good to get that kinda coin right?
A few days ago I wrote about shorting some Preferred ETFs b/c I thought the move in credit was overdone (titled, New Idea aug 14th), they have sold off a bit and I am buying in a small piece of the position - gotta take what the market gives ya - plus the ole family vacation is getting closer by the minute and the less I have to worry about while Im out the better.
More later
JB
A few days ago I wrote about shorting some Preferred ETFs b/c I thought the move in credit was overdone (titled, New Idea aug 14th), they have sold off a bit and I am buying in a small piece of the position - gotta take what the market gives ya - plus the ole family vacation is getting closer by the minute and the less I have to worry about while Im out the better.
More later
JB
Certainty
When I make a trade Im always certain I want to make the trade but I am NEVER certain of the outcome - This morning with the SPUZ down 11 the buyers were certain they wanted to buy and now seem certain that they will continue to ramp higher. Who can blame them that thinking has certainly worked over the last 3 months.
Im beginning to get a little nervous about being short CHK deltas here - lots of people I talk to are short it and on the flip side lots of "pros" are long banks. Im probably going to lighten up on the CHK short..and maybe look for some cheap downside in some banks.
The SPUZ are bid solidly down a whopping 2.25 points on the day - what me worry?
JB
Im beginning to get a little nervous about being short CHK deltas here - lots of people I talk to are short it and on the flip side lots of "pros" are long banks. Im probably going to lighten up on the CHK short..and maybe look for some cheap downside in some banks.
The SPUZ are bid solidly down a whopping 2.25 points on the day - what me worry?
JB
Buyers pouncing
Like my wife on the new merchandise at Nordstrom rack, stock buyers cant resist the bargains. REITS are heavy, tech is springy, Banks are firm....shippers yawnnnnnn. Looking for SPUZ to trade down to 965 - however impossible that seems right now - they will probably rally the rest of the day. Im not sure what the keys are as SPUZ are inscrutably strong - stock action is secondary.
JB
JB
Chinese food making the market sick
Shanghai takes another drubbing, loses 4.3%.
Ok when the world (read:guys on wall street who have never been to China) is pinning there hopeson China to grow us out of this mess and then China has a 20% stock market correction in about 2 weeks the thesis starts to be questioned. The China drop is pushing our futures down $8 bucks this morning. Treasuries are well bid advancing a little more than a full point this morning - the Bears are getting there groove on in the early goings.
Cubs lose again last night, but luckily so do the Cardinals - uggg what I wouldn't do for a 5 game winning streak and a chance at the MLB playoffs, and then I dare say it a shot at the World series - sorry its early my brain is foggy - Im talking nonsense, all that bearish talk , Cubs- World series.
Time for some coffee.
JB
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
The bald guy is making fun of me
The bald guy on CNBC is making fun of me (and all bears) in his opening sequence today ( i sneaked a peek cuz for some reason people give him credence). He said yesterday (the selloff) was a joke and today shows you how things really are. I love that he is saying that I absolutely love it - I mean look at the tremendous wealth he has created over at the TSCM. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/TSCM/charts?countryCode=US&submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=12&freq=1&comp=Enter%20Symbol(s)%3A&compidx=aaaaa~0&compind=aaaaa~0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013
Anyways when RIMM gets back to 85 he'll break even on his rah rah pick from a few months ago.
He says there is no reason to be bearish - I beg to differ - but hey thats what makes a horse race.
Remember he is in the ratings game - he is there to get people to watch and to sell advertising time - people dont want to be told things are bad - contrary to what people think that they want the truth, people just want to be made to feel that everything will be ok . it is very American to assume that any and all setbacks are temporary and meerly aberations - but we face a future unlike we have ever faced before and after a 52% rally from the lows it is much riskier to put money to work on the long side. So let him squak - but think about it Mr. Mainstreet are things actually gettting better - are your friends getting new jobs, raises, thinking about buying major new items?
Ill get off the soapbox now
JB
Anyways when RIMM gets back to 85 he'll break even on his rah rah pick from a few months ago.
He says there is no reason to be bearish - I beg to differ - but hey thats what makes a horse race.
Remember he is in the ratings game - he is there to get people to watch and to sell advertising time - people dont want to be told things are bad - contrary to what people think that they want the truth, people just want to be made to feel that everything will be ok . it is very American to assume that any and all setbacks are temporary and meerly aberations - but we face a future unlike we have ever faced before and after a 52% rally from the lows it is much riskier to put money to work on the long side. So let him squak - but think about it Mr. Mainstreet are things actually gettting better - are your friends getting new jobs, raises, thinking about buying major new items?
Ill get off the soapbox now
JB
The toilets not working...
No flush - no nothing - boooooooooooring. Gave back a little bit of yesterday's profits but thats how the cookie crumbles. Im still maintaining my short bias - one day of pain after a 52% advance does not do it for me. One of my biggest tells in this market is the performace of the REITS - they were less than awe inspiring today - SPG was up $1 and change - the REITS are going to end up getting their own bailout or cause another government bailout for the banks. Its a slow moving train wreck in this guys opinion. Hewlett Packer is out with numbers after the close and the stock is down just a touch after hours - the headline read HPQ makes numbers due to jobcuts - now if that aint bullish (or bullshit) I dont know what is.
Cubs need a victory tonight - the cardinal are now 6 games ahead with 45 games left in the season - crunch time.
Phone just rang on a goofy block trade - I put in for some - remember its a game of odds.
Good night
JB
Cubs need a victory tonight - the cardinal are now 6 games ahead with 45 games left in the season - crunch time.
Phone just rang on a goofy block trade - I put in for some - remember its a game of odds.
Good night
JB
The complacency is thick and gooey
The market has traded higher all day and we are hanging out near the highs of up 10 on the SPUZ.
No hiccups lower, no fear, no worries that yesterdays decline was the "start of something". AAPL is up $4.3 GS up $3.33, yawn what me worry? This kind of action ignites my bear fury - but Im still not doing much. I think thats the right thing for me to do right now.
More later
JB
No hiccups lower, no fear, no worries that yesterdays decline was the "start of something". AAPL is up $4.3 GS up $3.33, yawn what me worry? This kind of action ignites my bear fury - but Im still not doing much. I think thats the right thing for me to do right now.
More later
JB
Still nothing from the shippers
They dont rally - DRYS, SHIP - nada nothing - they are non participants in the stock market recovery - which of course is predicated on the return of economic growth. Very strange.
Im putting on a small long position via a buywrite in MPEL - selling $5 calls at .60 and buying stock at 5.18 - its like a 8.7% standstill returnm for a month. The company just did a very large secondary offering which I think puts them on solid footing for a while. Im not putting on a full position because I think the markets going lower but Im wading in....
2 hour 12 minutes till the close - buy, sell or hold? Im just not sure today - not that being sure makes you right.right?
JB
Im putting on a small long position via a buywrite in MPEL - selling $5 calls at .60 and buying stock at 5.18 - its like a 8.7% standstill returnm for a month. The company just did a very large secondary offering which I think puts them on solid footing for a while. Im not putting on a full position because I think the markets going lower but Im wading in....
2 hour 12 minutes till the close - buy, sell or hold? Im just not sure today - not that being sure makes you right.right?
JB
Lunch is in the Forecast
Gonna grab some lunch in a few - The SPUZ are hanging out up 9 bucks, 990 would be a logical place for them to stop but logic and markets don't often go hand in hand.
Im out of HURN, and looking for some new ideas but next week is family vacation - think Griswolds except that we are flying, so I dont want to add to much for my partner to monitor while Im out - he has enough to do.
Chicken sandwich is the odds on favorite for lunch...
JB
Im out of HURN, and looking for some new ideas but next week is family vacation - think Griswolds except that we are flying, so I dont want to add to much for my partner to monitor while Im out - he has enough to do.
Chicken sandwich is the odds on favorite for lunch...
JB
If you ask me
People are WAY to comfortable buying the market this morning. I still think you get a flush lower today at some point.
JB
JB
And where do we go from here?
SPUZ up 5 - very quiet opening, AAPL and GS shooting a bit higher, REITS are a little stronger but just a touch. HURN is now up 40% - I have almost exited the position, this was a great one. MPGpA has regained the 4 handle. I am reshorting some of the CHK I covered yesterday as the stock has a minipop. I shorted a little TGT on the ramp this morning - earnings are better on lower revs....thats what I would call unsustainable - and Mr. Ackman is a seller as pointed out in his latest 13f.
More later
JB
More later
JB
Mornin
We wake up to find the markets a tad higher, SPUZ up 4 bucks or so. We got some economic data this morning, in the form of PPI and housing starts PPI was soft and housing starts were a little worse than expectations - just a dumb question - why are there any housing starts right now when there are as many vacant homes as we have in this country right now?
HURN is up a whopping 27% this morning, Im selling some of my position into this strength.. that one worked nicely.
I would expect a downside flush at some point for the SPUZ this morning - but you never really know do ya?
I took 3 of my kids to the pool yesterday afternoon after the markets closed, my youngest is fearless totally fearless, she is pulling me along with her and is trying to climb up the highdive ladder - the kid is 22 months!!! Now watching her thats demanding work - shes adorable but a total handful.
Trade em good
JB
HURN is up a whopping 27% this morning, Im selling some of my position into this strength.. that one worked nicely.
I would expect a downside flush at some point for the SPUZ this morning - but you never really know do ya?
I took 3 of my kids to the pool yesterday afternoon after the markets closed, my youngest is fearless totally fearless, she is pulling me along with her and is trying to climb up the highdive ladder - the kid is 22 months!!! Now watching her thats demanding work - shes adorable but a total handful.
Trade em good
JB
Monday, August 17, 2009
In the words of Borat "very nice"
Today was what I have been looking for and luckily my partner and I stayed the course and stayed short in what has been a very short unfriendly environment. Did we take some chips off the table? Yes - are we still short biased? yes. I bought in some CHK, SPG, SBUX, FCX sold some long SRS (inverse ETF) . My grandfather used to say "you never go broke taking a profit" words to live by in this business.
Im just gonna enjoy todays victory for a few minutes before I go home and hang with the family.
Tonight I draft my Blackhawk tickets - I split a season with 3 other guys - how is it that the Hawks do not play the Penguins at home? Oh well - that should be my biggest problem.
Have a good night.
JB
Im just gonna enjoy todays victory for a few minutes before I go home and hang with the family.
Tonight I draft my Blackhawk tickets - I split a season with 3 other guys - how is it that the Hawks do not play the Penguins at home? Oh well - that should be my biggest problem.
Have a good night.
JB
Who is the closer today?
Bull or Bear? The Bulls have not blown a save in a while (baseball metaphor people), the Bears on the other hand look like the Cubs bullpen...We have traded in an amazingly narrow range for the last 3 hours, I dont think the bulls have any good pitches left for the close today, its up to the bears to throw strikes into the close.
Im picking up a new convertible position in NHC, the NHCpA trades at a low premium to parity and those are they types of converts I like to buy.
MPGpA has batttled back down only .26 cents on the day, the REITs as a group though are very weak with SPG down almost 6% (schwing!!!)
We are getting to the inflection point, 215 pm central where markets usually make a move.
One darkmatter stock is bucking the trend today, CITI is down a penny - who even cares?
JB
Im picking up a new convertible position in NHC, the NHCpA trades at a low premium to parity and those are they types of converts I like to buy.
MPGpA has batttled back down only .26 cents on the day, the REITs as a group though are very weak with SPG down almost 6% (schwing!!!)
We are getting to the inflection point, 215 pm central where markets usually make a move.
One darkmatter stock is bucking the trend today, CITI is down a penny - who even cares?
JB
Ugly Tape Item
Rosetta Stone was planning on doing a secondary this week - well they are not going ahead with it. The company lowered earnings guidance for the next quarter by about 25%, stock down $6.85 - ouch. This would be one to watch in my opinion if it rallys back anytime in the near future I would look to sell call options as the secondary offering looms and the momentum has been solidly broken.
The SPUZ are sitting around down 26 bucks on the day, will the bulls be able to rally em on the close?? Hard to fade that as a possibility.
Im still not doing much today, either you had the right position today or not - for the first time in a while I had the right position coming in.
Notable losers today are AAPL, GS, REITS (SPG), FCX.
Notable winners HURN and all PUTS.
JB
The SPUZ are sitting around down 26 bucks on the day, will the bulls be able to rally em on the close?? Hard to fade that as a possibility.
Im still not doing much today, either you had the right position today or not - for the first time in a while I had the right position coming in.
Notable losers today are AAPL, GS, REITS (SPG), FCX.
Notable winners HURN and all PUTS.
JB
Doing very little
Its kinda midmorning and I'm doing very little - Friday I wrote a post entitled HURN - where I said I was taking a flyer in there for the weekend, no takeover but the stock is up anyways - mind you its rallying in a down 2% market. Ill stick with that long.
Natgas looks like its got it sights on a 2 handle - which is just incredible you have to go back to 2002 to see that kinda pricing - as a user of natgas to heat my home in the winter I gotta say that makes me happy, also makes me happy b/c Im short CHK. One random thought I hope Ford breaks below 7 Id like to take a stab at the long side in there.
I am tired today - didnt get to play Hockey last night so I sat around playing bejewled blitz on Facebook - pathetic I know.
JB
Natgas looks like its got it sights on a 2 handle - which is just incredible you have to go back to 2002 to see that kinda pricing - as a user of natgas to heat my home in the winter I gotta say that makes me happy, also makes me happy b/c Im short CHK. One random thought I hope Ford breaks below 7 Id like to take a stab at the long side in there.
I am tired today - didnt get to play Hockey last night so I sat around playing bejewled blitz on Facebook - pathetic I know.
JB
Smelly
The breadth is bad , smelly bad. The market is getting whacked for about 2.2% and the VIX is up an amazing 4 points. It still seems like a very methodical selloff - I dont feel the panic - which is a good thing if you are staying short. Dont get me wrong I have trimmed a few positions, covered the futures I layed out on fridays close, bought in some CHK, but I also added a short in BBT, they are doing a large secondary to pay for this bank they just acquired with help from the fdic.
SPG is getting hit for about 5% this morning, I bought in a small piece of my position in there, maybe 5%. MPGpA is down .40 cents today so thats dinging me a bit but its cool.
More later
JB
SPG is getting hit for about 5% this morning, I bought in a small piece of my position in there, maybe 5%. MPGpA is down .40 cents today so thats dinging me a bit but its cool.
More later
JB
Yummy
I woke up to see the SPUZ down 24 buckaroos - Thats a good start. A close down here and I imagine I will have one heck of a day - Every short out there right now is probably buying some futures and covering some short stocks (as is this one) but that usually means we are gonna keep going lower - regardless of what the media would tell you there are way more long players than shorts.
I mentioned many times that when the buying was done you were gonna have a 25-30 point down day because EVERYBODY was full - well it looks like its here.
I think the big bank failure Friday (that BBT swallowed up with help from its friends at the FDIC) and the one hanging over the market today (guarantee bank???) is reminding people that banking is still fragile....duh!!
Im not gonna pound my chest to hard - the Bulls could still make it tuff for us bears.
Should be an interesting day
JB
I mentioned many times that when the buying was done you were gonna have a 25-30 point down day because EVERYBODY was full - well it looks like its here.
I think the big bank failure Friday (that BBT swallowed up with help from its friends at the FDIC) and the one hanging over the market today (guarantee bank???) is reminding people that banking is still fragile....duh!!
Im not gonna pound my chest to hard - the Bulls could still make it tuff for us bears.
Should be an interesting day
JB
Sunday, August 16, 2009
End of weekend peek
After a hot and humid weekend time to check in before its back to the work week. The SPUZ are down 2.5 points right now - so basically nothing - especially considering the 10 point ramp on the close friday. Lots of bullishness everywhere I look this weekend, the only things Larry Kudlow was missing friday evening were a mini skirt and pom poms. He was castigating some analyst for saying he was not a rip roaring bull...I like to see things like that - when people are most expecting the market to rally it most likely wont.
Im not ALWAYS a bear but the overbought levels in this market and the 50% move off the lows is fueling my pessimism.
We'll see what this week brings...one thing for sure is option expiration - I have a bunch of positions to roll. Cya in the AM
JB
Im not ALWAYS a bear but the overbought levels in this market and the 50% move off the lows is fueling my pessimism.
We'll see what this week brings...one thing for sure is option expiration - I have a bunch of positions to roll. Cya in the AM
JB
Friday, August 14, 2009
Can someone help me please?
I took a quick glance at some 13fs before I left the office and I checked out Pershing Squares - It appears that his General Growth stake has disappeared...Im probably reading it wrong because if he had sold he would have had to file during the quarter right?? If anybody knows what happened here please let me know.
If he sold that stock is headed lower fast, like lightning speed...and if he didn't sell well your guess is as good as mine (probably better)
JB
If he sold that stock is headed lower fast, like lightning speed...and if he didn't sell well your guess is as good as mine (probably better)
JB
A good day - not a great day
I had a good day - the 13 point rally from the low in the SPUZ cut the loss to 7.75 points on the day...not the smackdown I had wished for this morning. I sold some S&P futures on the close, because they ran from 997 to 1007 in about 10 minutes which just smacks of manipulation or desperate short covering...Im willing to take the risk over the weekend its not like they can find Sadddam Hussein again (up 70 points on the spuz when that happened on a sunday night) however they can find Osama - but really that guy is dead. So unless the government can create 1 million jobs over the weekend or figure out how to get people to buy plasma TVs with home equity loans I still believe the market is headed lower....
Have a great weekend and once again I ask is anyone outhere? Anybody reading??
JB
Have a great weekend and once again I ask is anyone outhere? Anybody reading??
JB
HURN
A couple weeks ago I mentioned that I was looking at HURN which had a stunning one day drop of like 70% on some accounting blowup - I did a buywrite in there - stock is popping here on a friday afternooon on big volume - always makes me assume there are takeover rumors - i took a flyer on some cheapy calls..."feel lucky punk?"
Anyway the SPUZ are grinding back a bit into the close (down 14.5 now) - the bulls sure are tenacious fellas - plus buying em into the close has worked over 95% of the time lately so they will give it a try - i think it doesnt work today - but thats no surprise is it?
15 miuntes left to go until its the weekend....as the SPUZ hit there highs since like 9am this morning sigh,,,,,,
JB
Anyway the SPUZ are grinding back a bit into the close (down 14.5 now) - the bulls sure are tenacious fellas - plus buying em into the close has worked over 95% of the time lately so they will give it a try - i think it doesnt work today - but thats no surprise is it?
15 miuntes left to go until its the weekend....as the SPUZ hit there highs since like 9am this morning sigh,,,,,,
JB
In John Paulson we trust
SPUZ are down 18 bucks - and BAC (Bank of America) is up.16 cents, this stock presumably trades with the market meaning when the market is up its up and when the market is down its down , today is clearly an exception to that. Since John Paulson (mega zillionare hedgie who crushed em in the subprime debacle) dicslosed his stake in BAC the stock has been extremely active and trading higher, whats interesting about this is that he could be out of the name by now - he could have sold every single share...BAC is not exactly dark matter (like C, AIG,FNM,FRE) but its a close cousin - good luck forecasting this companies earnings which is actually not nearly as important as the state of its balance sheet. Anyway who cares about fundamentals when you got momo on your side?
Something I have noticed of late is that the market makes its move early in the day and then trades in an extremely narrow range until about 2PM central time where another move ensues. Lately the market has been up 1% everyday and then extends at 2pm to make the gain 1.3% to 1.5%, if, and that is a big if, this works on a downday as well you can expect further losses to end the day.
The Cubs are playing the Pirates this weekend - who a good triple AAA team should be able to beat so Im gonna turn it on and multitask.
JB
Something I have noticed of late is that the market makes its move early in the day and then trades in an extremely narrow range until about 2PM central time where another move ensues. Lately the market has been up 1% everyday and then extends at 2pm to make the gain 1.3% to 1.5%, if, and that is a big if, this works on a downday as well you can expect further losses to end the day.
The Cubs are playing the Pirates this weekend - who a good triple AAA team should be able to beat so Im gonna turn it on and multitask.
JB
The bulls look like the Cubs today
Only difference is the Cubs have lost 7 of their last 8 or 8 of last 9 who can keep track? The SPUZ are down 19.75 - ahhh relief. 988 is a support level Id keep an eye on, although the bulls are holding them up at 994 pretty well - I suppose an afternoon ramp is still a stron possibility.
Im buying in a small amount of my CHK short here but keeping all of my long calls - so that if it goes higher again I can reshort.
If the REITS can push lower today I belive ther market will follow them lower, key off of SPG.
Lunch time - I can afford to eat today
JB
Im buying in a small amount of my CHK short here but keeping all of my long calls - so that if it goes higher again I can reshort.
If the REITS can push lower today I belive ther market will follow them lower, key off of SPG.
Lunch time - I can afford to eat today
JB
New Idea
In this massive rally we've experienced, credit spreads have tightened massively , meaning the amount over treasuries (treasuries, considered to be risk free - yeah right but thats another story for another day) that investors demand has decreased. Preferred shares have improved massively, going from high teens yields to below 8% in a bunch of different names. I think this is way overdone considering the fact that the economy hasn't improved its only stopped getting worse..That being said Im shorting PFG, which is an ETF which holds preferred shares, Im shorting it at 16.38 and looking for a bull back to 14.5 to 15. Wish me luck
JB
JB
I ordered a rally - take it back
I imagine guys at GS and JPM (and in the oval office) tapping there monitors saying whats this red are these quotes right? Im trying not to trade very much so far today - watching my positions, seeing whats doing what, the REITS are heavy, AAPL is down (must be a mistake), GS trades a tad softer. I feel like another bank confidence crisis is coming...not sure why.
more later
JB
more later
JB
Dragged my butt to work
Hard to come in today -still feeling spent from yesterday. SPUZ are unchanged - translation the ramp late yesterday was totally legitimate - yeah right. The nasdaq futures are down 7 points - houtson we may have a problem. I played no secondary issues last night. Looking for a lazy summer friday but hoping for a good old fashioned smack down.
JB
JB
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Railroaded
End of day ramp just like I feared - this really sucks.
Not much to say of any value - and the Cubs are horrid.
JB
Not much to say of any value - and the Cubs are horrid.
JB
Growing weary of this game
So the SPUZ rejected nicely from 1011 and sloooooooooooowly worked there way down to 1002.5 where surprise surprise the "buyers" stood up and in 10 minutes ran em back to 1007.5 , who was the buyer this time? All this artificial buying guarantees one thing only - when they are finally done placing all of these seconday issues and the market can perhaps trade freely there should be a swift painful drop where these snapback rallys are non existent, this bullish of a tone for as long as we have had it when done will leave nothing but sellers.
The REITS are,regardless of this little pop in the spuz, trading up ever so slightly and many are down. AAPL continues its meteoric ascent, its getting just a bit silly, OIL is up a tad, natgas is not.
If the SPUZ do a last hour ramp Im gonna pull my hair out - the shorts are being hunted and I fear they are almost all extinct - remember it was just a few short months ago where we wondered if our accounts at BAC and JPM were safe - and now we dont even allow two down days in a row for stocks.
Sorry for being a broken record
JB
The REITS are,regardless of this little pop in the spuz, trading up ever so slightly and many are down. AAPL continues its meteoric ascent, its getting just a bit silly, OIL is up a tad, natgas is not.
If the SPUZ do a last hour ramp Im gonna pull my hair out - the shorts are being hunted and I fear they are almost all extinct - remember it was just a few short months ago where we wondered if our accounts at BAC and JPM were safe - and now we dont even allow two down days in a row for stocks.
Sorry for being a broken record
JB
squirrel lookin for a nut
the bulls are doing there thing SPUZ up 7.75 attacking those highs - boring allready. The REITS (sorry im harping) look and feel very tired -zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Ill say it again watch em!!!
Ive scaled back into a short futures position but this time S&Ps not nasdaq, im averaged in around 1008.
GE is headed for negative territory as I write - I heard yesterday credit spreads widened out.
I went for a short term trade in BAC just now (ill let you guys guess which way)
The new issue preferred I went in for is trading at issue price - so no dough but no loss either.
Question for all of you - public storage places do they benefit from the foreclosure situation or get hurt?
JB
Ive scaled back into a short futures position but this time S&Ps not nasdaq, im averaged in around 1008.
GE is headed for negative territory as I write - I heard yesterday credit spreads widened out.
I went for a short term trade in BAC just now (ill let you guys guess which way)
The new issue preferred I went in for is trading at issue price - so no dough but no loss either.
Question for all of you - public storage places do they benefit from the foreclosure situation or get hurt?
JB
Midmornin
The other day I said I thought CHK was a good short but that I was buying upside calls just in case I was wrong - well guess what I was wrong (so far) but with the calls in place I can put more on instead if having to run for cover , it keeps the losses in check. Natgas continues to go lower so my thesis remains the same CHK is a short.
MPGpA continues its ascent - schwing!!!
The SPUZ are just hanging out with a 5 point gain on the day - I gotta tell you the jobless claims number is just bad - it means there are soooooo many people struggling out there - when you step back and think about it - its just awful - how many fights has it caused between spouses? How many kids dont understand why there parents are never happy anymore? Having a job a purpose in life is uber important - and then when you see Wall St. cheer the horrible news??? Ahh life can be very cruel. As a trader I basically eat what I can kill if you know what I mean - I have gone thru times where I ate very well and times where mac and cheese looked good. Oh well - I hope the job situation gets better for people but down deep Im pretty sure it wont.
JB
MPGpA continues its ascent - schwing!!!
The SPUZ are just hanging out with a 5 point gain on the day - I gotta tell you the jobless claims number is just bad - it means there are soooooo many people struggling out there - when you step back and think about it - its just awful - how many fights has it caused between spouses? How many kids dont understand why there parents are never happy anymore? Having a job a purpose in life is uber important - and then when you see Wall St. cheer the horrible news??? Ahh life can be very cruel. As a trader I basically eat what I can kill if you know what I mean - I have gone thru times where I ate very well and times where mac and cheese looked good. Oh well - I hope the job situation gets better for people but down deep Im pretty sure it wont.
JB
Rescued from the depths
Well the SPUZ got down about 3 bucks on the day and right on cue the buyers stepped up and saved the day rallying them back up 5 bucks or so...Im selling some futures back out - eventually one of these snap back rallys will fail and the bulls will be faced with a down 25 to 30 point day in the SPUZ but until then they will keep up their tricks. The REITS appear to be teetering which I continue to believe is a major tell in this market...JPM announced yesterday that they are looking to sell 23 buildings - I doubt they are doing that beacuse they expect prices to rise....maybe their own commercial RE dept wont refinance the mortgages - that would be a good one or maybe they are short some CMBS paper on these buildings and want to push the values lower (kidding on those last two comments). Meanwhile another REIT , AVB came to the trough last night with a 400 million dollar ATM stock selling program...when does it end??
Key on the REITS and the party in BAC today....
JB
Key on the REITS and the party in BAC today....
JB
Take that...
Awesome fade from the opening - in a normal market the bulls would just let the bears win a round but I have no doubt that the bulls will try to run em again...No bears are gonna press any shorts (if anyone has any anymore) so the bulls will do there thing walk em up. I covered my nasdaq futures - phew....I gotta tell you there is one area I would short - preferreds - they have run up so far and are showing LOW levels of fear - anyone know of a preferred ETF?
JB
JB
Secondary Scorecard
3/3 - we got a bit of all the deals we went in for. 2 have been sold for winners, one is a preferred that has not yet traded. The futures backed off a bit when the jobless claims numbers came out - but have been steadily climbing (read:computer generated buying) ever since - "we dont need no stinckin jobs - we have spuz".
More later
JB
More later
JB
24/7 Squeeze
After a 9 point selloff in the SPUZ late yesterday afternoon (mind you they still closed yesterdays session up1% or so) - they have been buying em ever since and we find em up 12 bucks this morning or 1.2%...We got a headline about record foreclosure activity again - yawn who cares...People are much more excited that John Paulson owns 1.94% of BAC - who knows how many OTC puts and regular options he may have against his position - it makes for CNBC bullish rah rah crap - I dont watch CNBC anymore but I imagine they have alluded to that position of Paulsons regularly this morning. Valuations are not discussed its how long the increasingly important SENTIMENT can stay bullish. Initial jobless claims just came out WORSE than expected - what will the bullish spin be on that?? I sold futures (more of em) when I woke up.
Good luck today
JB
Good luck today
JB
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Did you see Trading places?
Do you remember the scene in the trading pit where Hamilton (Eddy Murphy) is asking Winthrop (Dan Akroyd) if its time to sell and he keeps saying "not yet, not yet, not yet, NOW!!!!"? Is it paranoid of me to believe that's what is happening across the GS, JPM, and every other prop desk out there? Oh well I just hope this ends with them screaming "turn those machines back on" like the Duke brothers were at the end of trading places.
HOV vs HOVNP has been hanging in there nicely, TOL brother CEO was advocating for some sort of cash for clunkers program for housing...uhhh how would that work exactly?
MPGpA had a new closing high for as far back as I can remember, $3.75 exactly 15% of par - I believe there is still room to run on this one.
After the close we learn that Paulson & Co, has purchased 168 million shares of BAC in the 2nd qtr, making him the 4th largest holder - stock ripping afterhours so, in afterhours trading hes up$97 million - not to shabby. I guess that means its 13F time where we learn what the titans on the street have been buying and selling. That makes for some good weekend reading.
Im in for three new issues tonight and remain short the market - Im a stubborn bastard.
Have a great night - the wife just called says she has a flat tire - luckily the car is in front of the house so I know what my first activity is when I get home.
JB
HOV vs HOVNP has been hanging in there nicely, TOL brother CEO was advocating for some sort of cash for clunkers program for housing...uhhh how would that work exactly?
MPGpA had a new closing high for as far back as I can remember, $3.75 exactly 15% of par - I believe there is still room to run on this one.
After the close we learn that Paulson & Co, has purchased 168 million shares of BAC in the 2nd qtr, making him the 4th largest holder - stock ripping afterhours so, in afterhours trading hes up$97 million - not to shabby. I guess that means its 13F time where we learn what the titans on the street have been buying and selling. That makes for some good weekend reading.
Im in for three new issues tonight and remain short the market - Im a stubborn bastard.
Have a great night - the wife just called says she has a flat tire - luckily the car is in front of the house so I know what my first activity is when I get home.
JB
The fed.........
Made there announcement (they are doing nothing - but hey isn't that what all government entities do?) and the market moved a whole 3 points lower initially - and now we are back to today's scheduled program of squeezing shorts.
The REITS are starting to wither a bit...that's a tell I tell ya. Lower prices are on the way.
So far Im in for BG (deal tonight), WRI ( a new issue preferred) and MPEL, I have to stay short to buy all of that. There are 3 deals I said no thanks to - I dont want you all to get the impression that I'm easy.
More later
JB
The REITS are starting to wither a bit...that's a tell I tell ya. Lower prices are on the way.
So far Im in for BG (deal tonight), WRI ( a new issue preferred) and MPEL, I have to stay short to buy all of that. There are 3 deals I said no thanks to - I dont want you all to get the impression that I'm easy.
More later
JB
The squeeeeeeeeezae is back
One down day was all it took - the bulls are back to there squeezing ways. I must be deaf dumb and blind - this rally feels so contrived - totally illegitimate - no reason for it to be happening.
Im getting beat up today - for now im down about 1.5 points on my short nasdaq futures - not to bad. The bond auction results are getting a poor reception by the bond market but a positive reaction by the permabid SPU buyers - of course "gotta keep market up so I can move this POS secondary offering out tonight" - make no mistake the little guy will be left holding the bag after all of these deals are priced - again. Its basically fraud if you ask me.
Remember we have some lame FOMC announcement at 115 pm central time where Ben Bernanke will say whatever GS and JPM tell him to say (and of course not raise short term rates b/c we cannot even handle a 1% fed funds rate - the money has to be free)...fixed, rigged - ugg sometimes i feel like taking my ball and going home - today is one of those times.
JB
Im getting beat up today - for now im down about 1.5 points on my short nasdaq futures - not to bad. The bond auction results are getting a poor reception by the bond market but a positive reaction by the permabid SPU buyers - of course "gotta keep market up so I can move this POS secondary offering out tonight" - make no mistake the little guy will be left holding the bag after all of these deals are priced - again. Its basically fraud if you ask me.
Remember we have some lame FOMC announcement at 115 pm central time where Ben Bernanke will say whatever GS and JPM tell him to say (and of course not raise short term rates b/c we cannot even handle a 1% fed funds rate - the money has to be free)...fixed, rigged - ugg sometimes i feel like taking my ball and going home - today is one of those times.
JB
quicky
CHK is a good short here in my opinion - Natgas prices continue to languish around 3.5, this is not good for CHK, I think the stock was a crowded short and it FEELS to me that most people have covered. I shorted some but bought some upside calls just in case Im wrong - which is a definite possibility.
JB
JB
Why this game is so tuff
Just when you feel -hmm maybe I was right after all the market does one of these breathless runs for the highs...Did anything great come out this morning? NO!!! Ill say it till Im blue in the face the ibanks NEED a strong market into which to sell all of there secondarys and IPOS.
Ok - while typing this I was just called about a REIT preferred and a secondary coming thru WellsFargo...hmmm
MPGpA is trading well as it should considering the rahrah attitude about REITS...which once again little old me thinks is total BS.
I have added a few longs this morning, MIGP just bought a bit more - its a boring insurance company trading 4 or 5 bucks below book...and I bought some MPG (common) for a trade...Im only married to my wife if you know what I mean.
JB
Ok - while typing this I was just called about a REIT preferred and a secondary coming thru WellsFargo...hmmm
MPGpA is trading well as it should considering the rahrah attitude about REITS...which once again little old me thinks is total BS.
I have added a few longs this morning, MIGP just bought a bit more - its a boring insurance company trading 4 or 5 bucks below book...and I bought some MPG (common) for a trade...Im only married to my wife if you know what I mean.
JB
laughable
OK - I didnt think the bulls would roll over but I also didnt think they were gonna push the market up 1% in the first half hour either....this is beyond ridiculous. GS, REITS, AAPL are all moving and grooving this morning. I just sold some nasdaq futures at 1619.75...looking for a pullpack of at least half of this mornings upmove...
WE got 500 shares of that IPO (EM), we tried to get 5000, we sold it up 2 points. The secondary we were shut out..
Again I would urge people to watch the REITS, (SPG,PSA,VNO) as a clue to the momentum of this market.
JB
WE got 500 shares of that IPO (EM), we tried to get 5000, we sold it up 2 points. The secondary we were shut out..
Again I would urge people to watch the REITS, (SPG,PSA,VNO) as a clue to the momentum of this market.
JB
Mornin
OK before the markets, Rich Harden had a perfect game going thru 5 or six innings last night, and get this the Cubs lost 3-2, the phillies had a measly 2 hits but thats all it took to win. uggggg
SPUZ down a couple bucks, Japan and Hongkongs markets gave up the ghost last night losing 1.4 and 3% respectively. I dont see much yet today, just a bunch of trades going by in Citi up a nickle or so. I dont expect the bulls to just lay down now and play dead , just keep in mind the secondary calendar is jammed with lots and lots of stock coming to market, this should keep somewhat of a lid on the upside in my humble opinion.
Watch 988 on the SPUZ
JB
SPUZ down a couple bucks, Japan and Hongkongs markets gave up the ghost last night losing 1.4 and 3% respectively. I dont see much yet today, just a bunch of trades going by in Citi up a nickle or so. I dont expect the bulls to just lay down now and play dead , just keep in mind the secondary calendar is jammed with lots and lots of stock coming to market, this should keep somewhat of a lid on the upside in my humble opinion.
Watch 988 on the SPUZ
JB
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
now we are cooking with gas (at least a bit)
The market closed pretty close to the lows - sweet. We are in for an IPO tonight and we passed on a secondary offering in TRW, I see a handful of deals being announced, one deal is a 900 million dollar REIT offering, I went in for some of it, ticker is BPO, we are also in for an IPO in EM.
Im comfortable going in for these offerings because Im overall quite short the market right now.
If the 988 level on the S&P should fall 950 should come quick...
have a good night and go Cubs
JB
Im comfortable going in for these offerings because Im overall quite short the market right now.
If the 988 level on the S&P should fall 950 should come quick...
have a good night and go Cubs
JB
pavlov is ringing his bell
The SPUZ are down right around 1%, you can see dipbuyers popping up playing for the "inevitable" rally this afternoon. I really think they are going to be disappointed this time and that disappointment will set the stage for lower prices.
MPGpA is holding up like a champ in this down market, I can easily see that stock hitting 5 in the not so distant future - if distressed guys wake up they will like this better than GGP - way easier to understand. I nibbled on a little FSLR for a trade here - it looks overdone on the downside to me.
More later
JB
MPGpA is holding up like a champ in this down market, I can easily see that stock hitting 5 in the not so distant future - if distressed guys wake up they will like this better than GGP - way easier to understand. I nibbled on a little FSLR for a trade here - it looks overdone on the downside to me.
More later
JB
Will they come back on the close?
The darkmatter stocks, C, AIG, FNM, FRE are weaker, REITS, housing, TECH all lower and finally the spuz are lower too down by 15.5 to 992 which was the level I pointed out yesterday. Most traders I talk to are convinced there will be a rally back this afternoon - who can blame them that has been the mode for quite some time, this is the first decline of any significance that I can remember for quite some time.
I could take off a bunch of positions right now and lock in a great day - Im not gonna do that. I have taken heat to this point so Im not gonna cash in as soon as I start being right. One thing I have learned over the years is markets have an incredible ability to overshoot your wildest expectations (at least mine).
Anyways with all of these deals pricing tonight I'll have lots to report to you later...stay tuned
JB
I could take off a bunch of positions right now and lock in a great day - Im not gonna do that. I have taken heat to this point so Im not gonna cash in as soon as I start being right. One thing I have learned over the years is markets have an incredible ability to overshoot your wildest expectations (at least mine).
Anyways with all of these deals pricing tonight I'll have lots to report to you later...stay tuned
JB
Had some stuff to do this morning
The secondary offerings were losers - the market is dumping (finally) and Im well positioned for this move - trying to catch up - Ill have more for you later.
JB
JB
Monday, August 10, 2009
I wish I could write like Doug
Doug Kass is good - real good. He writes really well and is from what I have read of his market predictions one of the best there is.
I have put a link to a recent article by him below.
I am going to lost some of the secondary offerings Im aware of so that you can see how they perform tomorrow - Im more convinced then ever that the market is being held up here by the ibanks so that all of this new stock can find homes - remember these deals are a major profit source for ibanks so to keep the market bouyant is probably worth it for them.
Here are some of the names Im aware of
SPH pricing $41
HPT not known
PSB not known
FRT not known
BWP not known
BG not known
See how they do tomorrow
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10569021/1/kass-a-summary-of-my-bearishness.html
JB
I have put a link to a recent article by him below.
I am going to lost some of the secondary offerings Im aware of so that you can see how they perform tomorrow - Im more convinced then ever that the market is being held up here by the ibanks so that all of this new stock can find homes - remember these deals are a major profit source for ibanks so to keep the market bouyant is probably worth it for them.
Here are some of the names Im aware of
SPH pricing $41
HPT not known
PSB not known
FRT not known
BWP not known
BG not known
See how they do tomorrow
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10569021/1/kass-a-summary-of-my-bearishness.html
JB
update
I am in for 3 secondary offerings and passed on 6, to much supply so I passes on some. Cohen and Steers doing a large secondary - bearish for REITS....yipeee. I think 4 of the deals tonight are REIT related. Why are they selling if everything is getting soooooo much better??
JB
JB
uggg not again
The market bottomed at 1:15 pm and had the most methodical climb back to unchanged Ive ever seen - I fell for the bate and pressed some shorts at the lows of the day - I didn't realize that a half a percent decline after a 52% increase would be such a buying opportunity - but alas it was. I guess the ibanks need to keep the market up so they can sell all of these offerings of which I already see 4 or 5 tonight - rigged game?? nahhhhh. The more stock that is sold the more people want to pay for it - that makes perfect sense.
MPGpA was my stallion of the day - up 25% on the day, Ill take that - I sold a small amount of my position just to maintain some discipline.
That ridiculous run in the SPUZ in the last hour and a half ticked (no pun intended) me off - take a breath for peets sake. Still a good day over all. Im in for two deals and counting tonight - I dont have much faith they are going to be big winners but its an odds game.
Have a good night
JB
MPGpA was my stallion of the day - up 25% on the day, Ill take that - I sold a small amount of my position just to maintain some discipline.
That ridiculous run in the SPUZ in the last hour and a half ticked (no pun intended) me off - take a breath for peets sake. Still a good day over all. Im in for two deals and counting tonight - I dont have much faith they are going to be big winners but its an odds game.
Have a good night
JB
amazing
The SPUZ got down 8 bucks or so and that was it - the buyers and their "sureness" about future strength have reappeared. GS, AAPL, REITS all lower today yet the SPUZ are loved, anointed - its sickening. I would imagine there will be lots of overnight deals tonight - secondary offerings that is.
I have a put spread on in GS and Im thinking about butterflying it off - probably to soon but can GS continue to drop 2% a day with the S&P as firm as it is?
DTV is starting to peek my interest - if that stock gets below 23 or so I will look to do some buywrites - they are massive buyers of there own stock.
Good luck into the close
JB
I have a put spread on in GS and Im thinking about butterflying it off - probably to soon but can GS continue to drop 2% a day with the S&P as firm as it is?
DTV is starting to peek my interest - if that stock gets below 23 or so I will look to do some buywrites - they are massive buyers of there own stock.
Good luck into the close
JB
OK - here we go
The early morning stubbornness has dissipated - sellers have moved in and are moving the market a tad lower, SPUZ down 6 whole points...its a start. I think 992 is a good initial point for them to hit on the downside. Can you hear tonights CNBC recap with all of the experts - "it was a long overdue selloff that is needed so we can go higher" thats just what someone says who hasnt sold a thing on the way up. I should not be beating my chest I have been wrong for a month straight. Thank the good Lord I have MPGpA and HOV vs HOVNP on to bail me out.
Anybody else buy those SPG sep 55 puts for a buck? - they are up 50%....sell half keep the rest for free.
JB
Anybody else buy those SPG sep 55 puts for a buck? - they are up 50%....sell half keep the rest for free.
JB
MPGpA flying
People are figuring out that the MPG news was good not bad, giving back a bunch of bad properties and keeping the good ones - who wouldn't want to do that? The preferred is up .78 cents to 3.5 this is my largest long so Im pretty happy about this action. I would not be surprised to see the common fly as well as it has a 10% short position and the CEO just said "we are not considering bankruptcy".
SPUZ down 1.5 - yawn
JB
SPUZ down 1.5 - yawn
JB
I dont get it I just dont
The SPUZ continue to defy gravity - they cannot trade lower during the regular session - there are a handful of momo stocks getting hit today, REITS, RIMM, AAPL has give up its gains from the morning and is now slighlty lower. But the SPUZ are up - always bid - its truly as if sellers know that they are going higher and will not sell at these lowly prices of 1007. Its stupefying. All this ensures is that when they do break it will be nasty, swift , severe a 30 point down day.
MPGpA is coming back - people are figuring out the story. Thats a good thing. I put on a short in SBUX this morning - the stock has been ripping higher - I bought calls and shorted stock so that my risk is celarly defined.
JB
MPGpA is coming back - people are figuring out the story. Thats a good thing. I put on a short in SBUX this morning - the stock has been ripping higher - I bought calls and shorted stock so that my risk is celarly defined.
JB
stubborn very stubborn
Only way to describe this market - leaps to the upside and cannot repeat cannot sell off. The REITS are trading lower - the strength this morning is coming from the dark matter stocks, AIG, FNM, FRE and C - what are they? and what do they still do? anyone? Fundamentals there mean nothing as its all day trading and flipping. My MPGpA is trading lower this morning - which is a bummer - I sold some last week when it was north of 2.6 - and am buying some back here at around 2.3 - but i have a core long in this and would love to see it regain its price of last week 2.75.
Im heavily short SPG right now and the broader REIT sector in general.
GS is weak and getting weaker - Im gonna make a prediction here - they will take themselves private at some point - to much focus on them.
Good luck today
JB
Im heavily short SPG right now and the broader REIT sector in general.
GS is weak and getting weaker - Im gonna make a prediction here - they will take themselves private at some point - to much focus on them.
Good luck today
JB
Need Coffee.............
I wake up to find the SPUZ down the same couple bucks they were down last night - I had put out (sold) some nasdaq futures when they opened last night at 1616 - i left a bid in overnight and bought them back at 1610. This morning the journal is carrying a story about a company which Im involved in (MPG) - I own MPGpA shares, the journal is reporting that the company is about to "give back" seven of there properties that they are going to "imminently deafult on". Am I worried? Im always worried but one of the attractive parts of buying MPGpA was that first it wast trading at 5% of par when I bought it and second all of there properties are non recourse with no cross collaterolazation - so in effect they can drop the keys in the mailbox and walk away. We'll see how the market reacts to this news - this is not good news for reits in general but for this particular investment it might be pretty good.
When will the presistent buyers show up today? Premarket you have stuff like AIG, FNM,FRE trading much higher with huge volume - so people still wanna party. All that just ads fuel to my bearish fire.
Have a good day
JB
When will the presistent buyers show up today? Premarket you have stuff like AIG, FNM,FRE trading much higher with huge volume - so people still wanna party. All that just ads fuel to my bearish fire.
Have a good day
JB
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Weekend almost over
REITS - watch the actions in REITS for the animal spirits meter. They are trading with ridiculous strength that smells of shorts running for the hills. If these stocks cool off I think it will mean the squeeze has ended and a siginificant source of buying pressure will have evaporated. The SPUZ are trading lower by a couple of bucks tonight- there was no serious market info that I saw this weekend - I did notice an ad on the back of Time magazine that said "dont miss the bounce"... should it not read "you missed the bounce" remember we have rallied 50% from the lows.
Overall I enjoyed a nice weekend with the highlight being swimming with my 4 kids at the neighborhood pool - simple fun.
Get ready for more curve balls - the Cubs sure were not ready for em today as they are getting shelled 11-5 with 3 outs left for them. Im hoping for a nice down week - it will make going out to Wrigley Field tues night to see the Cubs play the Phillies that much more enjoyable.
Enjoy the last few hours of the weekend.
JB
Overall I enjoyed a nice weekend with the highlight being swimming with my 4 kids at the neighborhood pool - simple fun.
Get ready for more curve balls - the Cubs sure were not ready for em today as they are getting shelled 11-5 with 3 outs left for them. Im hoping for a nice down week - it will make going out to Wrigley Field tues night to see the Cubs play the Phillies that much more enjoyable.
Enjoy the last few hours of the weekend.
JB
Friday, August 7, 2009
one for the weekend
Freddie Mac reports earnings after the close and the stock is up like 55% in after hours trading. The company said they made 768 million dollars but darn they had to pay the government 1.1 billion in preferred dividends so they actually lost 330 million or so. Thats like a guy saying hes worth 2 million dollars but oops I owe 4 million on my house. They also said they wont need any capital right this second - gun the stock... even stranger is that Fannie Mae who got smoked this past quarter and said they need another 10 billion or so is seeing its stock pop 30% after hours.
Fannie and Freddie have taken down like 150 billion (plus or minus 50 billion) why are these zombies even still aloowed to be listed?
People are crazy!!
Later
JB
Fannie and Freddie have taken down like 150 billion (plus or minus 50 billion) why are these zombies even still aloowed to be listed?
People are crazy!!
Later
JB
hmmmmmmmmmmmmm - confusion
Another weak close - the SPUZ closed at the lowest level since early this morning - so the question is where to from here? If you have been reading for the past few weeks I'm not the guy to ask. I have been dead wrong. Luckily my arbitrage stuff has been bailing out my bearish market bias.
People are once again acting as if equities and debt are riskless. I do not believe that to be the case. Fannie mae and freddie mac are still hemoraging - and if they are hemoraging its because there is still massive stress in the housing sector - maybe things have bottomed price wise but a bottom doesnt enable someone to pay there mortgage bill if they have lost there job.
GS was very weak all day today closing down 1.93% , Im afraid they might have had to much good fortune lately the magnifying glass is focused directly on them and there G-D like ability to make money. Im wiped it has been a tuff weak - but Im still kicking and ready to battle again next weak.
If this market acts like it has been for the last few weeks , sunday night the SPUZ will open higher and remind people that a weak close means nothing....
Remaning short the market and nervous,
JB
People are once again acting as if equities and debt are riskless. I do not believe that to be the case. Fannie mae and freddie mac are still hemoraging - and if they are hemoraging its because there is still massive stress in the housing sector - maybe things have bottomed price wise but a bottom doesnt enable someone to pay there mortgage bill if they have lost there job.
GS was very weak all day today closing down 1.93% , Im afraid they might have had to much good fortune lately the magnifying glass is focused directly on them and there G-D like ability to make money. Im wiped it has been a tuff weak - but Im still kicking and ready to battle again next weak.
If this market acts like it has been for the last few weeks , sunday night the SPUZ will open higher and remind people that a weak close means nothing....
Remaning short the market and nervous,
JB
Today is gonna leave a mark
The S&P has extended its gains to 2% for the day with no signs of letting up - I have a couple winners but more losers - when the S&P got to 666 we were pretty long and taking a lot of heat - I was very uncomfortable in my chair exactly how I feel right now - the greed being exhibited feels like the polar opposite of the fear back in March. At this point I feel like looking for a selloff is like looking for the boogeyman - you just arent gonna find him.
Its getting to the point where if you start buying cheapy puts you wont get dinged to badly I like the SPG sep 55 puts for a buck or so...
It certainly feels like this is a close on the toptick kind of day but you never know _ at least I dont.
JB
Its getting to the point where if you start buying cheapy puts you wont get dinged to badly I like the SPG sep 55 puts for a buck or so...
It certainly feels like this is a close on the toptick kind of day but you never know _ at least I dont.
JB
"Why you gotta bust my balls?"
Thats what Id like to say to the SPU buyers - a 25 point drop in the dow yesterday and its off to the races again....The Ibankers are gonna be doing their thing over this weekend - getting ready to sell more equity and debt deals. I want to pose a question I asked the other day - if the economy is getting so much better why do the shippers not participate? Isnt shipping a key to the whole recovery in the economy? REITS, banks (with lax FASB rules) and Tech are what the street wants right now. Once again I feel pretty sheepish - is it possible that this rally (from 950 or so) is just some bizarre abberation that people are buying into the riskiest sectors? Reits have now tripled from the bottom and the appetite to buy them grows every day. As vacancies grow stock prices grow - its a massive short squeeze orgy. There is this old saying that is used all the time but is quite accurate "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Truer words were never spoken. Heres praying for solvency
JB
JB
Its groundhog day
Reits higher, Banks higher, puts lower...The S&Ps are bid once again - no selloffs - stocks are golden. CSFB put out a piece that the global risk appetite has gone from panic to euphoric levels. Duh. I guess yesterday was a one day wonder for me , MPGpA is my best position today - as people continue their pursuit of all things commercial real estate. Citigroup is getting a big pop today - a certain bald commentator was backing it last night. Im not sure what to do here - so I guess Ill read the paper.
JB
JB
Secondary score
we go 2/4 - meaning we get allocations in 2 of the 4 we put in for...both are losers with the SPUZ screaming higher this morning - small losers but losers none the less. So here I am again fighting this relentless bull market - a 5-% rally in 5 months or so - we get a better than expected jobs number and they still buy em?? Remember sell the news people?? I guess not. Well its a long day we'll see what happens.
I think the buyers are exhausted - more later.
JB
I think the buyers are exhausted - more later.
JB
How do they do it?
Yesterday afternoon I mentioned how Goldman Sachs revised there job loss expectation number to 250k , well guess what it came in at 247k....huh?? That is so ridiculous. You think Beeks met em in the garage with the report? Well the Bulls are running with these "better than expected" numbers.
Only 247k people lost there jobs - party time. If and that's a big if the market sells off today the move is other - S&P 950 here we come.
Have a good one
JB
Only 247k people lost there jobs - party time. If and that's a big if the market sells off today the move is other - S&P 950 here we come.
Have a good one
JB
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Thats a wrap
I had a great day, ANDE dropped nicely (8.33%), HOV and HOVNP rocked, I made some great daytrades in SPG and AIG, today went the way its supposed to go. We are in for 4 secondary offerings tonight - I have a feeling the phone might ring a few more times before I leave. Im waiting for earnings in PSA (public storage) I have a position in there arbitraging common and preferred shares.
The market is being very stubborn about giving up any of these gains - Im really not sure why - I guess there is a tremendous fear of missing what are considered to be shoein future gains. Remember zig when they zag.
Im very interested to see what this nonfarm payrolls number comes in at tomorrow considering that GS has been talking with Beeks. I hope today was the beginning of a nice roll for me. Maybe going out with the wife and kids (or at least two of em) last night to Great America was just what the Dr ordered.
Have a good evening
PS. Since I started writing two more secondary offerings have been shown to me..
JB
The market is being very stubborn about giving up any of these gains - Im really not sure why - I guess there is a tremendous fear of missing what are considered to be shoein future gains. Remember zig when they zag.
Im very interested to see what this nonfarm payrolls number comes in at tomorrow considering that GS has been talking with Beeks. I hope today was the beginning of a nice roll for me. Maybe going out with the wife and kids (or at least two of em) last night to Great America was just what the Dr ordered.
Have a good evening
PS. Since I started writing two more secondary offerings have been shown to me..
JB
Afternoon Wierdness
With the SPUZ hitting there lows this afternoon Goldman Sachs puts out a headline saying they have lowered there forecast for the amount of job cuts tomorrows employment report will show.
Huh? Died they really just do that?? If they are right than how did they figure this out the day before the report and if they are wrong are they just trying to get a pop in the market so that they can layoff some dollars?? That is a strange headline out of them and to me its nefarious no matter what the outcome is.
I took in the last of my short nasdaq futures at 1596 - flat. Im hardly bullish but there is still lots of strength in this market.
Allready being shown a secondary for tonight...Im sure there will be more to come.
JB
Huh? Died they really just do that?? If they are right than how did they figure this out the day before the report and if they are wrong are they just trying to get a pop in the market so that they can layoff some dollars?? That is a strange headline out of them and to me its nefarious no matter what the outcome is.
I took in the last of my short nasdaq futures at 1596 - flat. Im hardly bullish but there is still lots of strength in this market.
Allready being shown a secondary for tonight...Im sure there will be more to come.
JB
Feeling good about something
HOV and HOVNP has become my best position the preferred has reversed and instead of trading at a discount to the common now trades at a premium - excellent. Im taking some profits but still hold this as one of my largest positions.
Now if we could get MPGpA (preferred A) to go Id be sitting pretty. This is a REIT preferred trading at 90% discount to par - the REITS have been en fuego - if there really is a real estate recovery (which I highly doubt) than a preferred of a company that owns the best commercial office space in LA and Orange County should be trading WAY higher.
Anyways tomorrow is the all important non farm payroll number (anybody seen Beeks?) wil the bulls press em higher or will the horror of the employment situation let the Bears have a well deserved victory?? We shall see
JB
Now if we could get MPGpA (preferred A) to go Id be sitting pretty. This is a REIT preferred trading at 90% discount to par - the REITS have been en fuego - if there really is a real estate recovery (which I highly doubt) than a preferred of a company that owns the best commercial office space in LA and Orange County should be trading WAY higher.
Anyways tomorrow is the all important non farm payroll number (anybody seen Beeks?) wil the bulls press em higher or will the horror of the employment situation let the Bears have a well deserved victory?? We shall see
JB
some good some bad
We participated in 5 Secondary offerings - 2 are winners, 1 was a winner but only because we sold fast, 2 are losers - the S&Ps have turned lower phew...The reits are once again getting jiggy with it flying out of the gates - that's putting a hurt on me. HOV and HOVNP is performing quite nicely. Texas Tea is down about 1.5% in the early goings, Natgas is getting hammered - and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is flying higher go figure - I think its a crowded short - luckily for once Im not involved - but Im thinking about looking for some downside backspreads in there.
Hoping for lower prices as usual
JB
Hoping for lower prices as usual
JB
Huh?
9 secondary offerings, blah earnings from CSCO , SPUZ up 5?? Whats the end game here? This is beyond my comprehension - initial jobless claims still comes in above 500k at 555k....is this good stuff? AIG is trading up $5 bucks in the premarket (remember this had a 20 for 1 reverse split). Investors are falling over themselves to buy banks pre market..so the madness continues. I wish I had not sold any extra futures to hedge all my exposure to bidding for these secondary offerings....
JB
JB
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
trying to weather the bull market
Count em 8 secondary offerings that I know of tonight, wait my phone just rang make that 9 - Thats an awful lot of stock for sale by people who aren't interested in defending there portfolios - these people are interested in hitting the ATM machine and raising money, cash, the green stuff. If the future was sooooo rosy why would companies be diluting themselves with equity offerings? WHY? Ibanks make a fortune on these offerings - 1$ or so per share. In order to make these offerings work you have to have people lathered up to buy equities - Id say the current environment qualifies. I sold some extra futures due to the fact that Im in to buy all of these deals- or at least a bunch of em.
Anyways CSCO earnings are out after the close and the stock is selling off 3% or so (no position). Another stock that I have a bearish option position in ANDE posited earnings 11 cents worse than expected - Ill be interested to see the action in there tomorrow. The home team made a small profit today - relief.
Im off to Great America for some fun b/c my daughter won a free ticket due to her completing a reading challenge thru her school. Good job E.
Have a good night
JB
Anyways CSCO earnings are out after the close and the stock is selling off 3% or so (no position). Another stock that I have a bearish option position in ANDE posited earnings 11 cents worse than expected - Ill be interested to see the action in there tomorrow. The home team made a small profit today - relief.
Im off to Great America for some fun b/c my daughter won a free ticket due to her completing a reading challenge thru her school. Good job E.
Have a good night
JB
Pavlov rang his bell
The S%P down about 1 % was all it took to wake up the bulls, the futures are recovering quite quickly - what is so compelling about stocks after a 50% rise in 5 months Ill never know. Luckily I covered some shorts (nasdaq futures) Im thinking about putting them back out - im still plenty short but the markets strength lately is uncanny its like if someone flipped a coin 1000 times and got heads 1000 times. SPG is making me look stupid and dinging the wallet - its on crusie control to the moon - commercial real estate faces no headwinds - yeah right. I dont know what to say anymore - I just dont. Next time I here about some county in Alabama laying off 2/3 of there municipal employees and calling in the national guard to keep civic order Ill have to remember to buy 1000 SPUZ.
JB
JB
HOV vs HOVNP getting real interesting
According to the fly on the wall which is a financial news service there is takeover talk circulating around HOV. Predictably the common is running its up about 13%, the preferred HOVNP is lagging - last time I checked the preferred is senior in the cap structure. If a takeover happened and I have no reason to have an opinion on that subject Im pretty sure owning the preferred would prove to be the smarter move. If the company that bought them was a better credit risk(and that is an assumption Id make) the preferred would rally - remember this preferred is trading at an 85% discount to par. Meanwhile UBS sits on the offer in this preferred so apparently they are not the firm making the wedding between HOV and whoever...
The market is trading lower but the damage is pretty mild, bank stocks are trading strongly - thank G-D for FASB removing mark to market accoutning (does anyone even remember that anymore?) AIG is up 5 bucks a share - what does AIG even do anymore besides replace its CEO every few weeks? REITS are still trading in a very bullish fashion I bought a cheapy reit this morning - we'll see how that pans out. TECH is weak with the exception of RIMM - just another 5 bucks until it gets back to the price where a certain bald commentator said gotta buy it (and thats before the massive rally we have just witnessed).
ANybody reading anyone??
JB
The market is trading lower but the damage is pretty mild, bank stocks are trading strongly - thank G-D for FASB removing mark to market accoutning (does anyone even remember that anymore?) AIG is up 5 bucks a share - what does AIG even do anymore besides replace its CEO every few weeks? REITS are still trading in a very bullish fashion I bought a cheapy reit this morning - we'll see how that pans out. TECH is weak with the exception of RIMM - just another 5 bucks until it gets back to the price where a certain bald commentator said gotta buy it (and thats before the massive rally we have just witnessed).
ANybody reading anyone??
JB
the shoe is on the other foot
The bulls are being handed some stock this morning - and after talking to yet another Ibanker this morning he is working on so many equity offerings he has no time to sleep. Will all this stock that is coming be absorbed? As far as the secondarys that we played today - we got shut out of one and the other one we got 1k shares - we indicated for 12k - its up a nickle - so we make 50 bucks.
SPG reported what looked to me like blah numbers yesterday and they cut there forecast - what did the stock do? It was up 6 or 7%. This stock has 10% of its shares sold short - some is tied to a convertible but some is just good ole fashion shorts. Bottom line they got squeezed yesterday as the entire REIT sector went crazy. I tihnk yesterday was a great shorting opportunity in that stock - it has rallied from 47 to 61 in three weeks - couple that with a forecast that was WORSE than the street expected.
Im covering a few of my short nasdaq futures here just because...
JB
SPG reported what looked to me like blah numbers yesterday and they cut there forecast - what did the stock do? It was up 6 or 7%. This stock has 10% of its shares sold short - some is tied to a convertible but some is just good ole fashion shorts. Bottom line they got squeezed yesterday as the entire REIT sector went crazy. I tihnk yesterday was a great shorting opportunity in that stock - it has rallied from 47 to 61 in three weeks - couple that with a forecast that was WORSE than the street expected.
Im covering a few of my short nasdaq futures here just because...
JB
seeing buyers panic
Feels like buyers are panicking to buy anything real estate or housing related....think we go down today finally.
JB
JB
Mornin
Playing two secondary offerings this morning, we have been told by our contacts at the Ibanks that there is going to be a flood of issuance- meaning they have deals in the hopper that they are working on. Ill report later on how these two deals for todays pricing work.
As far as the markets look the SPUZ are down 3 bucks - so no fireworks either way pre market - we can assume that at some point today the rabid and relentless buyers will press em higher.
Have a good day
JB
As far as the markets look the SPUZ are down 3 bucks - so no fireworks either way pre market - we can assume that at some point today the rabid and relentless buyers will press em higher.
Have a good day
JB
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Fold a good hand?
Good poker players occasionally blow hands on purpose. Why? To keep the other players in the game. If I was long the market I would throw a hand soon (read - dump a big sell program on the market). Who will ever sell to the bulls if they never get rattled? So if I was long and had made a boatload of money over the last 3 weeks Id throw my hand. There will be no shorts left in the market soon and thereby the bulls will lose a source of supply to fill there stock appetites.
Im with TBIZ on sniffing a rat and that the market will get tagged. I mean c'mon even a broken clock is right twice a day.
JB
Im with TBIZ on sniffing a rat and that the market will get tagged. I mean c'mon even a broken clock is right twice a day.
JB
sniff......snifff
In my 15 year career some of my best trades did not involve technical analysis or fundemental analysis. They involved the feeling I get in my gut... and today I am starting to get it. I have been short some S&P's for this astronomical rise not so much because I am confident that we are going down but to keep my ongoing battle with the market going. Over the last week I have been perplexed by the rise in the market but this isn't the first time. Now if I had the capital and titanium balls I would short 1000 spus and 1000 nasdaq futures. Why would you ask....its not a chart, not fundamental analysis and not the feeling in my gut. The feeling is where I wish they were titanium! I am calling a mortal lock for a 3-6% correction. Starting when you ask? Well I wish I knew but if you want the tail end of pain it exists around here.
I feel like crying so a little levity
This is how I feel as a shortseller - watch the clip below
http://www.hulu.com/watch/36665/saturday-night-live-reliable-investments
JB
http://www.hulu.com/watch/36665/saturday-night-live-reliable-investments
JB
if you blink you might just miss it
Ferris Bueller said that about life. Im saying it about that "pullback" we had this morning that was only a premarket event. Cooler heads have prevailed and the zomby like purchasing of stock futures continues at a nice clip. SPG has reversed its down a dollar morning and now has shot higher by 1.3 (SPG operates malls) - there must be rumors that the government is going to offer cash for your old pants if you buy new ones - first guy inline should be President Obama did you see those jeans he was wearing when he threw out the first pitch? Anyways Im trying to stay focused but this rally is numbing my senses. Thinking about lunch...tuna sandwich is the early line winner this morning.
I just want to reiterate that I remain short the market and this rally is bogussssssss - did I mention that being stubborn as a trader is a bad trait?
Over and out
JB
I just want to reiterate that I remain short the market and this rally is bogussssssss - did I mention that being stubborn as a trader is a bad trait?
Over and out
JB
that didnt take very long
The Dip this morning (SPUZ down 8) was bought almost instantly - like Pavlovian dogs. SPG is trading down $1 after its earnings report - so basically nothing. CAT is a big upside mover today up a couple bucks on them saying something ridiculous like we are gonna make $8-$10 per share in 5 years??? What the heck does that mean? Who cares gun the stock. Im sitting on my hands here working an option spread my partner likes but other than that just watching the ticks flick by.
One thought on cash for clunkers (which just so happens to be another 3 billion dollar auto industry bailout except this time the foreign manufacturers are getting some cash) this will definitely cannibalize future sales. But thats the US for you instant gratification.
JB
One thought on cash for clunkers (which just so happens to be another 3 billion dollar auto industry bailout except this time the foreign manufacturers are getting some cash) this will definitely cannibalize future sales. But thats the US for you instant gratification.
JB
Get the red out
Markets are red (or lower) this morning. The SPUZ are down eight bucks here premarket. The bulls and permabid SPU buyers will try and get the red out at some point this morning. I have a position in SPG which reported earnings this morning - Ill be curious to see how it acts - this stock has more than doubled since the bottom. I dont have anything significant to report this morning except that a certain bald commentator is telling you to buy the dip before it has even happened.
Good luck today and hopefully Ill have some good ideas to share later.
JB
Good luck today and hopefully Ill have some good ideas to share later.
JB
Monday, August 3, 2009
evening run
I cant get my youngest to sleep so I plopped her on the couch with the rest of the gang and thought id take a peek on the markets. The SPUZ are down 25 whopping cents - they cross 1000 and at night they sit there at 1025 down 25 cents - what a freaking joke. When I trade poorly or have a hard time making money I have less patience for just about everything and everyone. So tonight since my wife is out with the oldest and im at home with numbers 2,3, and 4 (and a friend for 2) Im not the worlds most pleasent guy. I mean seriously why cant the baby just go to sleep like a good baby - why? The other thing that ticks me off when trading is not going well is that the bills and expenses keep coming....I am attending two charity events this week and Im just not feeling very charitable. Oh well this too will pass.
During the market meltdown preferred shares of reits,insurance companies, and banks got hammered. Most of these straight preferreds are $25 par preferreds that yield anywhere between 5% and 9 %. Some of these preferreds traded down to 4 to 5 bucks a share - since then and especially recently these preferreds have rallied quite strongly some of them getting mighty close to par..when they get close to par they become interesting shorts in my opinion - for example JPMpJ is trading $24.76 - only .24 cents away from par - so if you short it here all you can lose principal wise is .24 cents (it could trade thru par) but unlikely. What you can lose on is dividends - when you are short a stock you are liable for the dividends. That being said at $24.76 its shows you that no one is at all concerned about JPM's franchise anymore - this preferred traded as low as $14 or so in the dark days. Remember in this biz if you zig when people are zagging you more often than not are doing the right thing.
Sleep tight
JB
During the market meltdown preferred shares of reits,insurance companies, and banks got hammered. Most of these straight preferreds are $25 par preferreds that yield anywhere between 5% and 9 %. Some of these preferreds traded down to 4 to 5 bucks a share - since then and especially recently these preferreds have rallied quite strongly some of them getting mighty close to par..when they get close to par they become interesting shorts in my opinion - for example JPMpJ is trading $24.76 - only .24 cents away from par - so if you short it here all you can lose principal wise is .24 cents (it could trade thru par) but unlikely. What you can lose on is dividends - when you are short a stock you are liable for the dividends. That being said at $24.76 its shows you that no one is at all concerned about JPM's franchise anymore - this preferred traded as low as $14 or so in the dark days. Remember in this biz if you zig when people are zagging you more often than not are doing the right thing.
Sleep tight
JB
first day of the month and allready kinda beatup
Well the market closed on its highs of the day - with the S&P up another 1.5%. The fact that I broke even last month (the numbers have been tallied) is in my opinion amazing - I fought this upmove tooth and nail - why Im still not sure. One of the traders I have utmost respect for is Doug Kass - he penned a piece this morning which to my reading raised some redflags. Doug almost to the day called the bottom this past March - when everyone else was wetting there beds he had covered his shorts and gotten long and said we would probably rally thru the summer - well here we are and right on cue hes getting cautious. Ill attempt to post a link to the article.
Hope everyone has a good night!
JB
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10561440/1/kass-dousing-the-fire-with-kerosene.html
Hope everyone has a good night!
JB
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10561440/1/kass-dousing-the-fire-with-kerosene.html
Cue the Greenspan irrational exuberance tape
This in my opinion as you well know by now has gotten totally out of hand. The market does not even have routine pullbacks intraday - its an all day lovefest everyday. If the fed is not careful people are gonna start trying to take equity out of there homes to buy stocks...ooops no one has any equity. Times like these I try and find good arbitrages to do - I cant find any. Im a bear scorned. Bank Of America is getting investigated by the SEC and the stock does not even budge to the downside - I was actuall ong some BAC which I sold today. People are in a trance - imagine someone with both arms out in from of them chanting "must by stocks, must by stocks". I have no bright ideas - I guess at this point anyone who is reading this must think im a fool - always bearish always wrong. Im gonna keep plugging along here. the day aint over yet.
JB
JB
Wow does this suck...
The market gaps higher and stays higher all day with the usual suspects leading the charge, AAPL,GS, GOOG....Its enough to make me wanna puke at this point. If and when we sell off all the people who didnt sell anything will say its a healthy pullback...but I gotta tell you the behavior of our markets displays to me that we are a manic nation - either the world is ending or everything is perfect (like the market rally we have ssen for the last 3 weeks). So if we get a steep selloff it might continue for a while. The trading in the SPUZ persists - extremely shallow selloffs intraday with a huge bid underneath. Who is always buying and why? Is it because we have a tremendous amount of poeple who are about to lose Jobless benefits and they will be on the streets? Is it beacuse the dollar is getting CRUSHED? Is it beacuse if you give an American $4500 towards his/her car purchase they will finally come out and buy a new car?
Im short the market and it hurts - but remember in 1929 after the big decline we had a near 50% rally - hmm wait didnt the nasdaq just have a 50% rally from the bottom?
JB
Im short the market and it hurts - but remember in 1929 after the big decline we had a near 50% rally - hmm wait didnt the nasdaq just have a 50% rally from the bottom?
JB
I guess trees do grow to the sky
When Steve Jobs had the unfortunate luck of being diagnosed with cancer the AAPL crowd sold the stock down to $78. Steve Jobs is healthy again and thats a good thing - he will go down as one of the biggest innovators of my lifetime. The stock has now hit $165. How high can it go? Do you know anyone between the ages of 8 and 50 who does not have an ipod? Do you know lots of people who have iphones? I own a MAC at home because to my kids a computer is a MAC - i can only think of two of there friends homes where there is no MAC. SO what can AAPL or Steve Jobs come up with next? In the meantime the stock continues to climb - I would guess that every "growth fund" (btw - what the hell is a growth fund?does anyone by companies that are shrinking on purpose?) has AAPL as its top position. So its one fund buying it from another from another till the first fund feels stupid for selling and buys it back 7% higher from the first fund they sold it to and so on....So yes trees do grow to the sky....
JB
JB
Why would anyone own GS?
If you own GS and you have seen it rally from 50 to 165 What are you thinking? Do you see any nice fat dividends coming your way? .35 cents a quarter - when they make a record 3 billion all you hear about is the massive compensation - how bout a special dividend? Your equity capital (ok and the governments) allows them to make massive bets everyday - they are damn good at it but why not reward the shareholders? Lets just go to fantasyland for a minute - what if GS was down $10 bucks a share one day but you had just received a big special dividend due to the record earnings - it would lessen the blow - but nah they are just worried about paying themselves enough so that they can drive Ferraris and live out on the Hamptons.
Anywho - AAPL is flying this morning and this rally in the market just never seems to die - big Monday mornign openinngs used to always reverse - not in this universe. The SPUZ are hitting there highs as I write this.
This morning HURN is down 70% or so due to some earnings restatements - I think the company is fundamentally sound or at least a little birdie told me it was - I bought stock at 12.5 and sold the 12 1/2 calls in Sep for 2.4 - I kinda like that trade.
JB
Anywho - AAPL is flying this morning and this rally in the market just never seems to die - big Monday mornign openinngs used to always reverse - not in this universe. The SPUZ are hitting there highs as I write this.
This morning HURN is down 70% or so due to some earnings restatements - I think the company is fundamentally sound or at least a little birdie told me it was - I bought stock at 12.5 and sold the 12 1/2 calls in Sep for 2.4 - I kinda like that trade.
JB
Top O the mornin to ya
I woke up to find the market doing what it does SPUZ up 10 - all is well in the world. Oil is shooting higher as well - there was a piece in some European paper that world is running out of the black gold way faster than anyone thought possible - OK - how exactly does he know that does he have a dipstick in every oil well? News these days is nothing more than constant scare tactics or stupid celebrity gossip - unless of course you watch CNBC where everything is ROSY 24/7 - but I dont watch CNBC anymore.
Back to the task at hand - I am coming into the opening with my short bearish positions - Im not planning on covering - why would I at this point? The puts have been whittled down to iddy biddy soldiers at this point. Im still thinking about the weak closes on thrus and friday but apparently the price is no object SPU buyers this morning are not. If you need price action watch HURN this morning - it getting absolutley clobbered...Im gonna look at buywrites in there right out of the shoot.
JB
Back to the task at hand - I am coming into the opening with my short bearish positions - Im not planning on covering - why would I at this point? The puts have been whittled down to iddy biddy soldiers at this point. Im still thinking about the weak closes on thrus and friday but apparently the price is no object SPU buyers this morning are not. If you need price action watch HURN this morning - it getting absolutley clobbered...Im gonna look at buywrites in there right out of the shoot.
JB
Sunday, August 2, 2009
time to slowly check back in
Its been a nice weekend from my vantage point - the kids have been busy with friends - we spent the day at a carnival where all of the proceeds benefit kids with terminal illnesses - my wife was on the planning committee and I have to say it was a really nice event - ok I was ready to leave an hour before we did but thats just the way I am.
Anyways I didnt really read up to much on the markets this weekend but I just did see a blurb that the WSJ is carrying that Ford is having good sales this month thanks to the Cash for clunkers program - Ford has been on a tear lately and franky that makes me happy - finally a company being rewarded for doing the right things - managing its finances properly, building products that people want, and having the foresight ot hire a smart guy like Alan Mullaly. Good job letter F.
The S&Ps open on sunday nights 5PM Chicago time - they are trading down 1.25 - so basically no change. We'll see a better picture in the morning. I remain short of the market and a handful of Nasdaq mini futures.
Enjoy the last few hours of the weekend - Im gonna lace up my skates and take the ice for a while tonight.
JB
Anyways I didnt really read up to much on the markets this weekend but I just did see a blurb that the WSJ is carrying that Ford is having good sales this month thanks to the Cash for clunkers program - Ford has been on a tear lately and franky that makes me happy - finally a company being rewarded for doing the right things - managing its finances properly, building products that people want, and having the foresight ot hire a smart guy like Alan Mullaly. Good job letter F.
The S&Ps open on sunday nights 5PM Chicago time - they are trading down 1.25 - so basically no change. We'll see a better picture in the morning. I remain short of the market and a handful of Nasdaq mini futures.
Enjoy the last few hours of the weekend - Im gonna lace up my skates and take the ice for a while tonight.
JB
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